Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

PIT

28-15-12

NYI

31-21-5

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPIT -120

PIT · top performer

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:15
J. BrazeauRW · #16	1	1	2	6	1	2	0	12:59
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	16:47
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	1	0	3	3	0	2	18:17
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	13:22
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	14:13
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:05
E. MalkinC · #71	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	17:44
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	13:31
T. NovakC · #18	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	14:18
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:41
B. RustRW · #17	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	16:27
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	1	2	3	1	0	2	22:27
B. KulakD · #77	0	1	-2	0	0	1	0	20:23
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	20:50
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	14:12
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	1	0	3	3	0	23:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	23	5	18	.783	60:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	1	2	4	4	0	0	0	24:16
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:49
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	11:58
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	3:04
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	12:44
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	15:45
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:09
B. HorvatC · #14	2	1	5	3	2	2	0	24:35
A. LeeLW · #27	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	14:47
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:17
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	15:40
O. PalatLW · #81	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	22:09
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	13:39
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	20:12
R. PulockD · #6	1	0	-1	2	3	4	0	20:43
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	1	1	2	0	3	0	27:59
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	12:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	35	4	31	.886	60:22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 9

NYI3@

PIT4

Feb 4

PIT4@

NYI5today

Mar 30

PIT8@

NYI3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT-12055%

NYI+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat PIT 5-4. B. Horvat led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PIT	1	2	1	0	4
NYI	2	0	2	1	5

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · NYI won 3

PIT

NYI

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:52
Game End
PIT 4·NYI 5
OT·0:52
End of OT
PIT 4·NYI 5
OT·0:52
Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (34), Matthew Schaefer (23)
· ·
PIT 4·NYI 5
OT·0:45
Brett Kulak shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
OT·0:37
Takeaway by Evgeni Malkin
PIT 4·NYI 4
OT·0:00
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:56
Giveaway by Bo Horvat
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:48
Anders Lee hit Brett Kulak
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:09
Rickard Rakell hit Anders Lee
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:41
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:41
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:39
Bryan Rust shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:24
Parker Wotherspoon shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Timeout - Home
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:21
Connor Dewar shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:49
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Anders Lee
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:34
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:30
Casey Cizikas shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·16:12
Parker Wotherspoon hit Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:53
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:53
Icing
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:45
Erik Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:43
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:43
Video Review
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:43
Goalie Stopped
PIT 4·NYI 4

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·PIT -120/NYI +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 5–4 in overtime.

NYI +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
57.2%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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