NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

PIT

28-15-12

NYI

31-21-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPIT -120

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 5–4 in overtime.

NYI +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

PIT28-15-12

NYI31-21-5

PIT28-15-12NYI31-21-5

PIT

28-15-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

31-21-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 9

NYI3@

PIT4

Feb 4

PIT4@

NYI5today

Mar 30

PIT8@

NYI3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT-12055%

NYI+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat PIT 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PIT	1	2	1	0	4
NYI	2	0	2	1	5

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · NYI won 3

PIT

NYI

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:52
Game End
PIT 4·NYI 5
OT·0:52
End of OT
PIT 4·NYI 5
OT·0:52
Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (34), Matthew Schaefer (23)
· ·
PIT 4·NYI 5
OT·0:45
Brett Kulak shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
OT·0:37
Takeaway by Evgeni Malkin
PIT 4·NYI 4
OT·0:00
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:56
Giveaway by Bo Horvat
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:48
Anders Lee hit Brett Kulak
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:09
Rickard Rakell hit Anders Lee
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:41
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:41
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:39
Bryan Rust shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:24
Parker Wotherspoon shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Timeout - Home
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:21
Connor Dewar shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:49
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Anders Lee
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:34
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:30
Casey Cizikas shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·16:12
Parker Wotherspoon hit Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:53
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:53
Icing
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:45
Erik Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:43
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:43
Video Review
PIT 4·NYI 4
3rd·15:43
Goalie Stopped
PIT 4·NYI 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·PIT -120/NYI +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
0.3± 0.4high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands