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FINAL+1MIN
MTL

MTL

31-17-8

34
MIN

MIN

33-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -130

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Montreal Canadiens, 4–3 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Kirby Dach

Kirby Dach

C · #77

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Boldy

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
MTL31-17-8MIN33-14-10
MTL

MTL

31-17-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MIN

MIN

33-14-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 21MINMIN3@MTLMTL4
Feb 3MTLMTL3@MINMIN4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+11048%
MINMIN-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat MTL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
MTL11103
MIN20114

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · MIN won 2

1
2

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

0
1

OT

MTL
MIN

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:38

    Game End

    MTL 3·MIN 4

  2. OT·3:38

    End of OT

    MTL 3·MIN 4

  3. OT·3:38

    Kirill Kaprizov Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (50), Matt Boldy (29)

    · ·

    MTL 3·MIN 4

  4. OT·3:14

    Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  5. OT·2:34

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  6. OT·2:34

    Timeout - Home

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  7. OT·2:34

    Phillip Danault Hooking against Kirill Kaprizov

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  8. OT·2:33

    Kirill Kaprizov Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  9. OT·1:45

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  10. OT·1:45

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  11. OT·1:43

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  12. OT·1:21

    Matt Boldy Backhand Hit Right Post

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  13. OT·1:05

    Giveaway by Cole Caufield

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  14. OT·0:00

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  15. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  16. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  17. 3rd·19:30

    Takeaway by Marcus Johansson

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  18. 3rd·19:22

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  19. 3rd·19:22

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  20. 3rd·18:32

    Ryan Hartman Batted Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  21. 3rd·17:41

    Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  22. 3rd·17:02

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  23. 3rd·17:02

    Icing

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  24. 3rd·16:58

    Yakov Trenin hit Kirby Dach

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  25. 3rd·16:30

    Danila Yurov Backhand Hit Right Post

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  26. 3rd·15:56

    Ryan Hartman hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  27. 3rd·15:50

    Giveaway by Mike Matheson

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  28. 3rd·15:48

    Noah Dobson hit Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  29. 3rd·15:27

    Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov

    MTL 3·MIN 3

  30. 3rd·15:21

    Zachary Bolduc hit Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MTL 3·MIN 3

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

20

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

2

31

Faceoffs W

27

13

Blocks

15

12

Giveaways

14

6

Takeaways

6

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +110/MIN -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Matt BoldyMIN
    3.8± 1.9high
  • Joel Eriksson EkMIN
    3.3± 1.6high
  • Ryan HartmanMIN
    3.0± 2.3high

Goals

  • Matt BoldyMIN
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Joel Eriksson EkMIN
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Quinn HughesMIN
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Mats ZuccarelloMIN
    1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR