Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MTL

31-17-8

MIN

33-14-10

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -130

MTL · top performer

Kirby Dach

C · #77

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	13:06
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:18
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:03
K. DachC · #77	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	17:19
P. DanaultC · #24	0	1	1	2	1	3	2	16:26
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:11
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:44
B. GallagherRW · #11	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:03
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:23
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:09
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	20:34
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	19:42
N. DobsonD · #53	0	1	0	3	3	3	0	25:10
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	20:41
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	25:55
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	-3	1	0	2	0	25:41
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	24	4	20	.833	62:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	21:10
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:14
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	17:49
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	8:09
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	15:58
K. KaprizovLW · #97	2	0	-1	4	1	0	0	23:50
T. PitlickC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:00
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:18
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	15:13
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	16:17
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:27
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	16:18
B. FaberD · #7	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	28:21
Q. HughesD · #43	0	3	0	6	0	0	0	33:19
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1:52
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:55
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	19:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	20	3	17	.850	63:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 21

MIN3@

MTL4

Feb 3

MTL3@

MIN4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+11048%

MIN-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat MTL 4-3. K. Kaprizov led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MTL	1	1	1	0	3
MIN	2	0	1	1	4

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · MIN won 2

MTL

MIN

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:38
Game End
MTL 3·MIN 4
OT·3:38
End of OT
MTL 3·MIN 4
OT·3:38
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (50), Matt Boldy (29)
· ·
MTL 3·MIN 4
OT·3:14
Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·2:34
Jake Evans faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·2:34
Timeout - Home
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·2:34
Phillip Danault Hooking against Kirill Kaprizov
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·2:33
Kirill Kaprizov Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·1:45
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·1:45
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·1:43
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·1:21
Matt Boldy Backhand Hit Right Post
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·1:05
Giveaway by Cole Caufield
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·0:00
Jake Evans faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:30
Takeaway by Marcus Johansson
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:22
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:22
Puck Frozen - Skater
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·18:32
Ryan Hartman Batted Wide Right
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:41
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:02
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:02
Icing
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:58
Yakov Trenin hit Kirby Dach
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:30
Danila Yurov Backhand Hit Right Post
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:56
Ryan Hartman hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:50
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:48
Noah Dobson hit Ryan Hartman
·
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:27
Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov
MTL 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:21
Zachary Bolduc hit Ryan Hartman
·
MTL 3·MIN 3

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +110/MIN -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Montreal Canadiens, 4–3 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
58.4%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.4%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.4%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL