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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

32-18-5

53
FLA

FLA

28-24-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-1VegasFLA -115

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 5–3.

BUF +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Peyton Krebs

Peyton Krebs

C · #19

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

FLA
Sam Reinhart

Sam Reinhart

C · #13

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
3
BUF32-18-5FLA28-24-3
BUF

BUF

32-18-5

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
FLA

FLA

28-24-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

BUF leads series 2-1

Oct 18FLAFLA0@BUFBUF3
Jan 13FLAFLA4@BUFBUF3
Feb 3BUFBUF5@FLAFLA3today
Feb 28BUFBUF3@FLAFLA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-10551%
FLAFLA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat FLA 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF2125
FLA2103

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · FLA won 0

2
2

1

1
1

2

2
0

3

BUF
FLA

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot Wide Left

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  4. 3rd·19:53

    Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  5. 3rd·19:46

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot Wide Right

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  6. 3rd·19:21

    Evan Rodrigues Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  7. 3rd·19:03

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  8. 3rd·19:03

    High Stick

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  9. 3rd·19:01

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matthew Tkachuk

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  10. 3rd·18:55

    Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  11. 3rd·18:49

    Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  12. 3rd·18:49

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  13. 3rd·18:48

    Sam Reinhart Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  14. 3rd·18:34

    Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  15. 3rd·18:19

    Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  16. 3rd·18:19

    Icing

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  17. 3rd·18:12

    Uvis Balinskis Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  18. 3rd·18:09

    Uvis Balinskis shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  19. 3rd·17:51

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues

    ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  20. 3rd·17:51

    Josh Doan Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (18), Ryan McLeod (28)

    · ·

    BUF 5·FLA 3

  21. 3rd·17:23

    Giveaway by Alex Tuch

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  22. 3rd·17:18

    Eetu Luostarinen hit Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  23. 3rd·17:03

    Peyton Krebs hit Gustav Forsling

    ·

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  24. 3rd·16:51

    Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  25. 3rd·16:51

    Icing

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  26. 3rd·16:26

    Takeaway by Jason Zucker

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  27. 3rd·16:01

    Evan Rodrigues Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  28. 3rd·16:00

    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  29. 3rd·15:36

    Owen Power hit Niko Mikkola

    ·

    BUF 4·FLA 3

  30. 3rd·15:31

    Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 4·FLA 3

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

20

Shots

42

33.3

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

6

30

Faceoffs W

31

20

Blocks

13

17

Giveaways

17

2

Takeaways

7

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -105/FLA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
    SKATE MPH23.195
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Mackie SamoskevichFLA · RW
    BURSTS18693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR