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FINAL+4UTA
VAN

VAN

18-32-6

26
UTA

UTA

29-23-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesUTA leads series 2-0VegasUTAH -290

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Vancouver Canucks, 6–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VAN · top performer

VAN
Teddy Blueger

Teddy Blueger

C · #53

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Nick Schmaltz

Nick Schmaltz

C · #8

4Points

3

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vancouver Canucks at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
6
VAN18-32-6UTA29-23-4
VAN

VAN

18-32-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

29-23-4

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

PIM

18

Season series

UTA leads series 2-0

Dec 6UTAUTA4@VANVAN1
Feb 3VANVAN2@UTAUTA6today
Apr 4UTAUTA7@VANVAN4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VANVAN+23530%
UTAUTA-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VAN 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VAN1102
UTA2316

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · UTA won 3

1
2

1

1
3

2

0
1

3

VAN
UTA

Play-by-play · 261 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  3. 3rd·19:11

    Michael Carcone Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  4. 3rd·19:10

    Dylan Guenther Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  5. 3rd·19:02

    Teddy Blueger hit Dylan Guenther

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  6. 3rd·18:57

    Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    · ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  7. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Tyler Myers

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  8. 3rd·17:55

    Clayton Keller Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  9. 3rd·17:49

    Nick Schmaltz Backhand Hit Left Post

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  10. 3rd·17:43

    JJ Peterka Backhand Hit Right Post

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  11. 3rd·17:41

    Clayton Keller shot blocked by Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  12. 3rd·17:31

    Tyler Myers shot blocked by Ian Cole

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  13. 3rd·17:24

    David Kampf Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  14. 3rd·16:31

    Nate Schmidt hit Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  15. 3rd·15:54

    Giveaway by Ian Cole

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  16. 3rd·15:47

    Takeaway by Mikhail Sergachev

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  17. 3rd·15:42

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Teddy Blueger

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  18. 3rd·15:42

    Off-side

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  19. 3rd·15:21

    Max Sasson faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  20. 3rd·15:21

    TV Timeout

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  21. 3rd·15:21

    Liam O'Brien Misconduct

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  22. 3rd·15:21

    Evander Kane Misconduct

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  23. 3rd·15:21

    Liam O'Brien Roughing against Evander Kane served by Michael Carcone

    · ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  24. 3rd·14:50

    Giveaway by Ian Cole

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  25. 3rd·13:58

    David Kampf faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  26. 3rd·13:58

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  27. 3rd·13:46

    Giveaway by Liam O'Brien

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  28. 3rd·13:20

    Teddy Blueger hit Nick DeSimone

    ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  29. 3rd·13:06

    John Marino shot blocked by Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

  30. 3rd·12:22

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·UTA 6

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

24

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

50.0

14

PIM

18

20

Faceoffs W

27

10

Blocks

9

19

Giveaways

13

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +235/UTA -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398
  • Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.595
  • Pierre-Olivier JosephVAN · D
    SKATE MPH23.092
  • Tom WillanderVAN · D
    BURSTS6386
  • Marcus PetterssonVAN · D
    DIST MI237.985

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR