Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at UTA?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4UTA

VAN

18-32-6

UTA

29-23-4

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesUTA leads series 2-0VegasUTAH -290

VAN · top performer

Teddy Blueger

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Nick Schmaltz

C · #8

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	1	1	2	2	4	0	0	16:50
F. ChytilC · #72	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	7:36
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:58
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	18:37
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	-2	1	1	1	2	15:17
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	-1	5	4	0	12	18:44
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	13:52
J. LekkerimakiRW · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	12:03
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:56
L. OhgrenLW · #92	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:53
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	15:49
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	20:49
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	16:18
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:58
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	17:59
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	18:45
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	17:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	19	6	13	.684	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	12:08
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	1	3	3	3	0	0	18:35
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	1	-2	3	0	0	0	12:35
B. HaytonC · #27	0	1	2	1	2	1	2	16:27
C. KellerRW · #9	0	2	3	4	0	0	0	15:44
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:38
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	0	2	0	12	8:29
J. PeterkaRW · #77	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:14
N. SchmaltzC · #8	3	1	4	3	0	2	0	19:34
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:05
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:48
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	14:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	19:11
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:00
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:57
J. MarinoD · #6	0	3	4	0	0	1	0	21:50
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	20:07
M. SergachevD · #98	1	0	2	1	0	0	2	23:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	24	2	22	.917	59:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA leads series 2-0

Dec 6

UTA4@

VAN1

Feb 3

VAN2@

UTA6today

Apr 4

UTA7@

VAN4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+23530%

UTA-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VAN 6-2. N. Schmaltz led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	1	1	0	2
UTA	2	3	1	6

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · UTA won 3

VAN

UTA

Play-by-play · 261 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·19:11
Michael Carcone Wrist Shot Short
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·19:10
Dylan Guenther Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·19:02
Teddy Blueger hit Dylan Guenther
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·18:57
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
· ·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:59
Giveaway by Tyler Myers
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:55
Clayton Keller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:49
Nick Schmaltz Backhand Hit Left Post
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:43
JJ Peterka Backhand Hit Right Post
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:41
Clayton Keller shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:31
Tyler Myers shot blocked by Ian Cole
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·17:24
David Kampf Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·16:31
Nate Schmidt hit Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:54
Giveaway by Ian Cole
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:47
Takeaway by Mikhail Sergachev
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:42
Jack McBain faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:42
Off-side
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:21
Max Sasson faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:21
TV Timeout
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:21
Liam O'Brien Misconduct
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:21
Evander Kane Misconduct
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·15:21
Liam O'Brien Roughing against Evander Kane served by Michael Carcone
· ·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·14:50
Giveaway by Ian Cole
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·13:58
David Kampf faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·13:58
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·13:46
Giveaway by Liam O'Brien
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·13:20
Teddy Blueger hit Nick DeSimone
·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·13:06
John Marino shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·UTA 6
3rd·12:22
Jack McBain faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·UTA 6

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +235/UTA -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Vancouver Canucks, 6–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.6%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
68.6%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.6%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.6%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at UTA?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL