NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

NYI

30-21-5

WSH

28-22-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesWSH wins series 3-1VegasWSH -130

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off New York Islanders, 4–1.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Nic Dowd

C · #26

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYI30-21-5

WSH28-22-7

NYI30-21-5WSH28-22-7

NYI

30-21-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

WSH

28-22-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

WSH wins series 3-1

Oct 11

WSH4@

NYI2

Oct 31

NYI3@

WSH1

Nov 30

WSH4@

NYI1

Feb 3

NYI1@

WSH4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+11048%

WSH-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat NYI 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	1	0	0	1
WSH	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · WSH won 2

NYI

WSH

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·19:13
Giveaway by Sonny Milano
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·19:10
Sonny Milano shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:51
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:51
Anthony Duclair Slashing against Justin Sourdif
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:20
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:20
Icing
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:07
Takeaway by Scott Mayfield
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:04
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:01
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·18:01
Puck in Crowd
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·17:59
Scott Mayfield shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·17:52
Marc Gatcomb Snap Shot saved by Clay Stevenson
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·17:35
Sonny Milano faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·17:35
John Carlson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19)
·
NYI 1·WSH 4
3rd·17:27
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·17:21
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·17:21
Puck in Netting
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·17:19
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·16:51
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:41
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Anthony Beauvillier
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:30
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:30
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:28
Simon Holmstrom Slap Shot saved by Clay Stevenson
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:08
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:08
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·15:06
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Clay Stevenson
·
NYI 1·WSH 3
3rd·14:43
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 1·WSH 3

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +110/WSH -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high
Ryan LeonardWSH
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high
Ilya ProtasWSH
1.0± 1.9low
Connor McMichaelWSH
0.9± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands