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FINAL+2DET
DET

DET

33-18-6

20
COL

COL

36-9-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -192

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 2–0.

DET +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dylan Larkin

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Zakhar Bardakov

Zakhar Bardakov

C · #93

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
0
DET33-18-6COL36-9-9
DET

DET

33-18-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

36-9-9

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

14

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 31COLCOL5@DETDET0
Feb 3DETDET2@COLCOL0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+16038%
COLCOL-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat COL 2-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET1012
COL0000

Period scoring

DET won 2 · COL won 0

1
0

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

DET
COL

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 2·COL 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 2·COL 0

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Josh Manson shot blocked by Travis Hamonic

    ·

    DET 2·COL 0

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    DET 2·COL 0

  5. 3rd·19:39

    Icing

    DET 2·COL 0

  6. 3rd·19:29

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    DET 2·COL 0

  7. 3rd·19:29

    Valeri Nichushkin Misconduct

    DET 2·COL 0

  8. 3rd·19:29

    Lucas Raymond Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (25)

    ·

    DET 2·COL 0

  9. 3rd·19:22

    Ben Chiarot hit Brock Nelson

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  10. 3rd·18:39

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  11. 3rd·18:39

    On-Ice Official

    DET 1·COL 0

  12. 3rd·18:22

    Victor Olofsson hit Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  13. 3rd·18:10

    Ben Chiarot shot blocked by Brent Burns

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  14. 3rd·18:07

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    DET 1·COL 0

  15. 3rd·18:05

    Moritz Seider hit Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  16. 3rd·16:56

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    · ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  17. 3rd·16:52

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  18. 3rd·16:52

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 1·COL 0

  19. 3rd·16:50

    Devon Toews Backhand saved by John Gibson

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  20. 3rd·16:46

    Dylan Larkin hit Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  21. 3rd·16:43

    Ben Chiarot hit Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  22. 3rd·16:06

    Parker Kelly hit Andrew Copp

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  23. 3rd·14:52

    Devon Toews hit Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Valeri Nichushkin hit Lucas Raymond

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  25. 3rd·14:40

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Moritz Seider

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  26. 3rd·14:27

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  27. 3rd·14:27

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 1·COL 0

  28. 3rd·14:25

    Ben Chiarot Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  29. 3rd·14:20

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

  30. 3rd·14:18

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DET 1·COL 0

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

COL

Home

25

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

14

23

Faceoffs W

25

17

Blocks

15

10

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +160/COL -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR