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FINAL+3CHI
SJ

SJ

27-23-4

36
CHI

CHI

22-25-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasSJ -115

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks held off San Jose Sharks, 6–3.

CHI +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Ryan Donato

Ryan Donato

C · #8

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
SJ27-23-4CHI22-25-9
SJ

SJ

27-23-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

22-25-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

Feb 3SJSJ3@CHICHI6today
Apr 7CHICHI2@SJSJ3
Apr 16SJSJ2@CHICHI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ-11553%
CHICHI-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat SJ 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ0213
CHI1416

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · CHI won 2

0
1

1

2
4

2

1
1

3

SJ
CHI

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Mario Ferraro Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  4. 3rd·19:48

    Pavol Regenda Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  5. 3rd·19:47

    Adam Gaudette Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  6. 3rd·19:11

    Mario Ferraro hit Landon Slaggert

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  7. 3rd·18:59

    Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    · ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  8. 3rd·18:22

    Shakir Mukhamadullin Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  9. 3rd·18:11

    Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Oliver Moore

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  10. 3rd·18:11

    Puck in Netting

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  11. 3rd·18:09

    Michael Misa shot blocked by Ryan Greene

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  12. 3rd·17:58

    Vincent Desharnais Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  13. 3rd·17:51

    Giveaway by Spencer Knight

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  14. 3rd·17:49

    Michael Misa hit Ryan Donato

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Will Smith Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  16. 3rd·16:47

    Ryan Greene faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  17. 3rd·16:47

    Puck in Benches

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  18. 3rd·16:42

    Will Smith shot blocked by Frank Nazar

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  19. 3rd·16:31

    Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Frank Nazar

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  20. 3rd·16:29

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Frank Nazar

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  21. 3rd·16:29

    Icing

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  22. 3rd·16:23

    Adam Gaudette Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  23. 3rd·16:21

    Michael Misa Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  24. 3rd·16:08

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Michael Misa

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  25. 3rd·16:08

    Off-side

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  26. 3rd·15:51

    Michael Misa Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  27. 3rd·15:09

    Takeaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  28. 3rd·15:01

    Oliver Moore faceoff won against Collin Graf

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  29. 3rd·15:01

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·CHI 6

  30. 3rd·14:59

    Colton Dach Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·CHI 6

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

27

Shots

17

0.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

8

30

Faceoffs W

26

6

Blocks

9

19

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ -115/CHI -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Ilya MikheyevCHI · RW
    SKATE MPH23.595
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR