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FINAL+1OTT
OTT

OTT

27-21-7

32
PIT

PIT

28-15-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesOTT leads series 2-0VegasOTT -130

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 3–2.

PIT +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Drake Batherson

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Egor Chinakhov

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
OTT27-21-7PIT28-15-11
OTT

OTT

27-21-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

28-15-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

10

Season series

OTT leads series 2-0

Dec 19PITPIT0@OTTOTT4
Feb 3OTTOTT3@PITPIT2today
Mar 26PITPIT4@OTTOTT3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-13057%
PITPIT+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat PIT 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT0123
PIT1012

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · PIT won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

2
1

3

OTT
PIT

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Claude Giroux

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  4. 3rd·19:59

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  5. 3rd·19:59

    Icing

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  6. 3rd·19:51

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  7. 3rd·19:51

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  8. 3rd·19:50

    Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  9. 3rd·19:32

    Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Rickard Rakell

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  10. 3rd·19:21

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Short

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  11. 3rd·19:18

    Giveaway by Anthony Mantha

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  12. 3rd·18:59

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  13. 3rd·18:59

    Icing

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  14. 3rd·18:48

    Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Justin Brazeau

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  15. 3rd·18:45

    Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  16. 3rd·18:40

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  17. 3rd·18:40

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  18. 3rd·18:10

    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Justin Brazeau

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  19. 3rd·17:52

    Erik Karlsson Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  20. 3rd·17:41

    Takeaway by Artem Zub

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  21. 3rd·17:33

    Erik Karlsson Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  22. 3rd·17:08

    Nick Cousins Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  23. 3rd·16:35

    Connor Clifton hit Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  24. 3rd·16:30

    Connor Clifton hit Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  25. 3rd·16:03

    Jordan Spence Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  26. 3rd·15:45

    Giveaway by Tim Stützle

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  27. 3rd·14:52

    Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  28. 3rd·14:52

    Delaying Game - Unsucc. chlg served by Rutger McGroarty

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  29. 3rd·14:52

    Challenge Hm - goal interference - goal

    OTT 3·PIT 2

  30. 3rd·14:52

    Claude Giroux Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Tim Stützle (33), Drake Batherson (29)

    · ·

    OTT 3·PIT 2

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

31

Shots

16

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

10

27

Faceoffs W

23

9

Blocks

17

12

Giveaways

18

8

Takeaways

6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -130/PIT +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
    SHOT MPH88.787
  • Nick JensenOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.785
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR