Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

OTT

27-21-7

PIT

28-15-11

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesOTT leads series 2-0VegasOTT -130

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:59
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	2	2	2	3	0	0	17:12
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	15:39
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:20
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	9:16
C. GirouxRW · #28	1	0	2	3	0	1	0	14:25
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:09
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	6:46
S. PintoC · #12	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	20:45
T. StutzleC · #18	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	20:46
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	16:31
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-2	2	1	2	0	20:41
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	14:14
T. KlevenD · #43	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	12:37
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	28:02
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	16:31
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	16	2	14	.875	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:19
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:28
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	12:12
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:35
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	12:51
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:52
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	14:29
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:51
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:47
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	10:37
T. NovakC · #18	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:52
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	19:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	0	6	2	2	15:52
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	27:20
B. KulakD · #77	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	22:01
R. SheaD · #5	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	20:00
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	12:31
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	1	0	0	3	0	2	18:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	31	3	28	.903	57:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT leads series 2-0

Dec 19

PIT0@

OTT4

Feb 3

OTT3@

PIT2today

Mar 26

PIT4@

OTT3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-13057%

PIT+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat PIT 3-2. T. Stutzle led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	0	1	2	3
PIT	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · PIT won 1

OTT

PIT

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:59
Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Claude Giroux
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:59
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:59
Icing
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:51
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:51
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:50
Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:32
Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:21
Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Short
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·19:18
Giveaway by Anthony Mantha
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:59
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:59
Icing
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:48
Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Justin Brazeau
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:45
Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:40
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:40
Puck in Netting
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·18:10
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Justin Brazeau
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·17:52
Erik Karlsson Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·17:41
Takeaway by Artem Zub
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·17:33
Erik Karlsson Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·17:08
Nick Cousins Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·16:35
Connor Clifton hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·16:30
Connor Clifton hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·16:03
Jordan Spence Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·15:45
Giveaway by Tim Stützle
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·14:52
Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·14:52
Delaying Game - Unsucc. chlg served by Rutger McGroarty
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·14:52
Challenge Hm - goal interference - goal
OTT 3·PIT 2
3rd·14:52
Claude Giroux Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Tim Stützle (33), Drake Batherson (29)
· ·
OTT 3·PIT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -130/PIT +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 3–2.

PIT +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.4%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.4%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsPittsburgh Penguins

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