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FINAL+1DAL
WPG

WPG

22-25-8

34
DAL

DAL

33-14-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesDAL leads series 3-0VegasDAL -148

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Winnipeg Jets, 4–3 in overtime.

WPG +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WPG · top performer

WPG
Cole Perfetti

Cole Perfetti

C · #91

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene

C · #95

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
WPG22-25-8DAL33-14-9
WPG

WPG

22-25-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

33-14-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

DAL leads series 3-0

Oct 10DALDAL5@WPGWPG4
Dec 10DALDAL4@WPGWPG3
Feb 3WPGWPG3@DALDAL4today
Apr 3WPGWPG0@DALDAL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPGWPG+12445%
DALDAL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WPG 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
WPG02103
DAL02114

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · DAL won 1

0
0

1

2
2

2

1
1

3

0
1

OT

WPG
DAL

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:05

    Game End

    WPG 3·DAL 4

  2. OT·2:05

    End of OT

    WPG 3·DAL 4

  3. OT·2:05

    Thomas Harley Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (9), Miro Heiskanen (37)

    · ·

    WPG 3·DAL 4

  4. OT·1:41

    Mark Scheifele Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  5. OT·1:33

    Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  6. OT·0:37

    Thomas Harley hit Cole Perfetti

    ·

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  7. OT·0:00

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  8. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  9. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  10. 3rd·18:17

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Roope Hintz

    ·

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  11. 3rd·18:17

    Logan Stanley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (40), Kyle Connor (39)

    · ·

    WPG 3·DAL 3

  12. 3rd·18:04

    Kyle Connor Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  13. 3rd·17:43

    Gabriel Vilardi shot blocked by Esa Lindell

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  14. 3rd·17:34

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  15. 3rd·17:34

    Puck in Netting

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  16. 3rd·17:32

    Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Radek Faksa

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  17. 3rd·17:04

    Radek Faksa Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  18. 3rd·17:01

    Radek Faksa faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  19. 3rd·17:01

    Goalie Stopped

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  20. 3rd·16:58

    Jamie Benn Deflected saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  21. 3rd·16:53

    Takeaway by Sam Steel

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  22. 3rd·16:51

    Sam Steel hit Dylan DeMelo

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  23. 3rd·16:44

    Adam Lowry Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  24. 3rd·16:44

    Dylan DeMelo Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  25. 3rd·16:13

    Dylan DeMelo hit Sam Steel

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  26. 3rd·15:53

    Matt Duchene faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  27. 3rd·15:53

    Goalie Stopped

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  28. 3rd·15:51

    Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  29. 3rd·15:47

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    WPG 2·DAL 3

  30. 3rd·15:47

    Puck in Crowd

    WPG 2·DAL 3

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

27

Shots

28

33.3

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

6

21

Faceoffs W

29

7

Blocks

19

14

Giveaways

14

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +124/DAL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

DAL vs WPG.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    2.7± 1.8high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high

Points

  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR