Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

WPG

22-25-8

DAL

33-14-9

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesDAL leads series 3-0VegasDAL -148

WPG · top performer

Cole Perfetti

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Thomas Harley

D · #55

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	2	5	0	2	11:06
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	1	-2	1	1	0	0	23:50
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:03
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	8:14
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:01
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:23
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:29
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	12:40
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	16:42
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	2	-2	2	0	1	0	24:36
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	12:04
G. VilardiC · #13	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	18:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	22:26
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	25:17
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:28
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	22:50
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	12:16
L. StanleyD · #64	1	0	0	2	3	1	0	15:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	28	4	24	.857	61:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	9:03
J. BennLW · #14	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:00
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	15:11
M. DucheneC · #95	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	17:22
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	7:48
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	8:19
R. HintzC · #24	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	19:30
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	13:00
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	20:30
M. RantanenRW · #96	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	21:55
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	20:39
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:28
T. HarleyD · #55	1	0	1	4	1	2	0	23:52
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	2	-1	3	1	2	2	26:18
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	3	1	5	0	23:26
N. LundkvistD · #5	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:06
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	12:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	27	3	24	.889	62:05

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL leads series 3-0

Oct 10

DAL5@

WPG4

Dec 10

DAL4@

WPG3

Feb 3

WPG3@

DAL4today

Apr 3

WPG0@

DAL3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+12445%

DAL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WPG 4-3. T. Harley led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
WPG	0	2	1	0	3
DAL	0	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · DAL won 1

WPG

DAL

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:05
Game End
WPG 3·DAL 4
OT·2:05
End of OT
WPG 3·DAL 4
OT·2:05
Thomas Harley Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (9), Miro Heiskanen (37)
· ·
WPG 3·DAL 4
OT·1:41
Mark Scheifele Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 3·DAL 3
OT·1:33
Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 3·DAL 3
OT·0:37
Thomas Harley hit Cole Perfetti
·
WPG 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WPG 3·DAL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:17
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
WPG 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:17
Logan Stanley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (40), Kyle Connor (39)
· ·
WPG 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:04
Kyle Connor Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:43
Gabriel Vilardi shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:34
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:34
Puck in Netting
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:32
Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Radek Faksa
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:04
Radek Faksa Tip-In Wide Left
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:01
Radek Faksa faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:01
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:58
Jamie Benn Deflected saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:53
Takeaway by Sam Steel
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:51
Sam Steel hit Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:44
Adam Lowry Deflected Wide Left
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:44
Dylan DeMelo Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:13
Dylan DeMelo hit Sam Steel
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:53
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:53
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:51
Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:47
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
WPG 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:47
Puck in Crowd
WPG 2·DAL 3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +124/DAL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Winnipeg Jets, 4–3 in overtime.

WPG +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.3%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
66.3%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.3%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.3%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL