Live · 4
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FINAL+1NSH
STL

STL

20-27-9

56
NSH

NSH

26-23-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesNSH wins series 3-1VegasNSH -142

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off St. Louis Blues, 6–5.

STL +1.5 cashed (NSH won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
6
STL20-27-9NSH26-23-6
STL

STL

20-27-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

26-23-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

NSH wins series 3-1

Dec 12STLSTL2@NSHNSH7
Dec 16NSHNSH5@STLSTL2
Dec 28NSHNSH2@STLSTL3
Feb 3STLSTL5@NSHNSH6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+12045%
NSHNSH-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat STL 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL2305
NSH1236

Period scoring

STL won 2 · NSH won 1

2
1

1

3
2

2

0
3

3

STL
NSH

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 5·NSH 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 5·NSH 6

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Tyson Jost

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  4. 3rd·19:57

    Brayden Schenn Cross-checking against Steven Stamkos

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  5. 3rd·19:49

    Cam Fowler shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  6. 3rd·19:47

    Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  7. 3rd·19:33

    Brayden Schenn Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  8. 3rd·19:26

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Steven Stamkos

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  9. 3rd·19:26

    Puck in Crowd

    STL 5·NSH 6

  10. 3rd·19:00

    Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Steven Stamkos

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  11. 3rd·19:00

    Hand Pass

    STL 5·NSH 6

  12. 3rd·18:46

    Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  13. 3rd·18:46

    Icing

    STL 5·NSH 6

  14. 3rd·18:36

    Giveaway by Michael McCarron

    STL 5·NSH 6

  15. 3rd·18:14

    Giveaway by Colton Parayko

    STL 5·NSH 6

  16. 3rd·17:55

    Giveaway by Joel Hofer

    STL 5·NSH 6

  17. 3rd·17:50

    Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  18. 3rd·17:18

    Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Cole Smith

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  19. 3rd·17:18

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 5·NSH 6

  20. 3rd·17:16

    Cole Smith Backhand saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  21. 3rd·17:08

    Cole Smith shot blocked by Tyler Tucker

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  22. 3rd·16:28

    Takeaway by Luke Evangelista

    STL 5·NSH 6

  23. 3rd·15:54

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Jonathan Marchessault

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  24. 3rd·15:54

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 5·NSH 6

  25. 3rd·15:53

    Roman Josi Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  26. 3rd·15:51

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Jonathan Marchessault

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  27. 3rd·15:51

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    STL 5·NSH 6

  28. 3rd·14:50

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

  29. 3rd·14:50

    Off-side

    STL 5·NSH 6

  30. 3rd·13:59

    Pavel Buchnevich Slap Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    STL 5·NSH 6

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

34

Shots

28

50.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

33

10

Blocks

11

16

Giveaways

14

8

Takeaways

4

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +120/NSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Colton ParaykoSTL · D
    BURSTS9494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR