Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NSH

STL

20-27-9

NSH

26-23-6

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesNSH wins series 3-1VegasNSH -142

STL · top performer

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

3Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Ryan O'Reilly

C · #90

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:03
N. BjugstadC · #77	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	14:23
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	2	1	1	6	0	2	0	17:53
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:59
M. JosephRW · #71	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	9:17
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	3	2	3	0	0	0	15:15
J. NeighboursLW · #63	1	2	1	4	2	0	0	18:28
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	18:28
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	18:54
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	8:20
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:37
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	12:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:48
J. FaulkD · #72	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	21:09
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	18:48
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:39
C. ParaykoD · #55	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	22:14
T. TuckerD · #75	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	18:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	28	6	22	.786	58:59

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	16:13
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	3	0	3	0	0	0	17:58
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	22:13
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	1	-1	0	2	0	0	15:12
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	8:24
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:02
M. McCarronC · #47	1	0	1	4	1	2	0	16:45
R. O'ReillyC · #90	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	20:52
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:20
S. StamkosC · #91	2	0	1	2	1	0	2	19:06
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:08
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	14:48
A. EnglundD · #8	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	6:13
R. JosiD · #59	0	4	2	1	1	3	0	23:35
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	17:17
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	23:33
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	13	0	13	1.000	36:05
J. SarosG · #74	21	5	16	.762	23:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH wins series 3-1

Dec 12

STL2@

NSH7

Dec 16

NSH5@

STL2

Dec 28

NSH2@

STL3

Feb 3

STL5@

NSH6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+12045%

NSH-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat STL 6-5. R. O'Reilly led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	2	3	0	5
NSH	1	2	3	6

Period scoring

STL won 2 · NSH won 1

STL

NSH

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:57
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Tyson Jost
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:57
Brayden Schenn Cross-checking against Steven Stamkos
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:49
Cam Fowler shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:47
Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:33
Brayden Schenn Tip-In Wide Right
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:26
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Steven Stamkos
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:26
Puck in Crowd
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:00
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Steven Stamkos
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·19:00
Hand Pass
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·18:46
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·18:46
Icing
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·18:36
Giveaway by Michael McCarron
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·18:14
Giveaway by Colton Parayko
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Joel Hofer
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·17:50
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·17:18
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Cole Smith
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·17:18
Goalie Stopped
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·17:16
Cole Smith Backhand saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·17:08
Cole Smith shot blocked by Tyler Tucker
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·16:28
Takeaway by Luke Evangelista
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·15:54
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Jonathan Marchessault
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·15:54
Goalie Stopped
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·15:53
Roman Josi Slap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·15:51
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Jonathan Marchessault
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·15:51
Puck Frozen - Goalie
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·14:50
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·14:50
Off-side
STL 5·NSH 6
3rd·13:59
Pavel Buchnevich Slap Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
STL 5·NSH 6

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +120/NSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off St. Louis Blues, 6–5.

STL +1.5 cashed (NSH won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
63.1%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.1%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.1%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL