
NYG
1-1

MIA
0-2
NFL · Drive chart
20 drives · 2 TD · 5 FG · 2 Fum · 10 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Back Judge
Greg Wilson
Side Judge
Eugene Hall
Umpire
Steven Woods
Down Judge
Jerod Phillips
Field Judge
Alonzo Ramsey III
Line Judge
Brian Perry
Down Judge
Marcus Allen
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
NYG · top performer

Jameis Winston
· #19
15/21
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
MIA · top performer

Cam Miller
· #15
6/11
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
Biggest swing: 10pp · —
NFL · Box scoreNGS
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/21 | 150 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13/18 | 101 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3/3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31/42 | 257 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 40 | 1 | 13 | |
| 10 | 33 | 0 | 7 | |
| 6 | 26 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 21 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | |
| 7 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | -3 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 36 | 133 | 2 | 21 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 58 | 0 | 29 | |
| 6 | 37 | 0 | 10 | |
| 4 | 29 | 0 | 14 | |
| 3 | 26 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 24 | 0 | 20 | |
| 3 | 22 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 17 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 266 | 0 | 29 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 30 | 2 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | 31 | 0 | |
| 1 | 29 | 29 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 60 | 31 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 29 | 18 | 0 | |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 42 | 18 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 43 | 2/2 | 8 | |
| 2/2 | 37 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Team | 4/4 | 43 | 2/2 | 14 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 123 | 41.0 | 3 | |
| Team | 3 | 123 | 41.0 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/11 | 60 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2/5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8/16 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 18 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 6 | 9 | 0 | 5 | |
| 4 | 8 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 18 | 50 | 0 | 17 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 32 | 0 | 30 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | -5 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 8 | 61 | 0 | 30 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 86 | 47 | 1 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 57 | 29 | 0 | |
| 2 | 56 | 33 | 0 | |
| 1 | 27 | 27 | 0 | |
| 1 | 17 | 17 | 0 | |
| Team | 6 | 157 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 53 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 53 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 318 | 45.4 | 2 | |
| Team | 7 | 318 | 45.4 | 2 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
390
Total yds
102
133
Rush yds
50
1
TO
2
Team stats
NYG
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
390
Total yards
102
133
Rushing yds
50
1
Turnovers
2
4-35
totalPenaltiesYards
8-59
41:00
possessionTime
19:00
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYG -3.5
Half-pt above key 3
Total
35.5
Defensive · -11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
NYG beat MIA 26-3. Jameis Winston led the way — 15/21 · 150 YDS · 91.4 QBR. NYG outscored the other side 13-3 in the 2nd quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 7 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Betting line
NYG -3.5·O/U 35.5·NYG -162/MIA +136
Recap · NFL
ew York Giants went into Miami Dolphins and beat them, 26–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
NYG -3.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 35.5 by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
-0.5 since open
Total
35.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
MIA vs NYG
Period scoring
NYG won 4 · MIA won 0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 169 plays
+3pp
−2pp
−1pp
−2pp
+1pp
+2pp
BIG MOMENT
−6pp
−2pp
−4pp
+2pp
BIG MOMENT
−6pp
+1pp
−1.0pp
BIG MOMENT
+6pp
−3pp
BIG MOMENT
−7pp
+1pp
+3pp
−2pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
NYG
league avg
MIA
22.6
Pts / game
23.5
21.2
347
Yds / game
342
316
218
Pass yds / G
225
195
129
Rush yds / G
117
120
0.8
TO / G
0.9
1.3