BUF
1-0
CLE
0-1
NFL · Drive chart
7 drives · 2 TD · 1 INT · 4 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Team pages
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Side Judge
Jimmy Buchanan
Back Judge
Todd Prukop
Field Judge
Aaron Santi
Line Judge
Brian Bolinger
Down Judge
Frank LeBlanc
Umpire
Scott Campbell
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · live
K. Allen
BUF · #11 · QB
S. Sanders
CLE · #2 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveBUF · top performer
Kyle Allen
· #11
6/8
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
CLE · top performer
Shedeur Sanders
· #2
9/10
C/A
1
TD
1
INT
Recent swing: 11pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8 | 66 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 6/8 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 21 | 1 | 8 | |
| 3 | 12 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Team | 11 | 37 | 1 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 54 | 0 | 20 | |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 6 | 66 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 16 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 30 | 0 | |
| 1 | 22 | 22 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 52 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Team | 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 129 | 43.0 | 2 | |
| Team | 3 | 129 | 43.0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/10 | 74 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 9/10 | 74 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 31 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 14 | 37 | 0 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 31 | 1 | 23 | |
| 1 | 16 | 0 | 16 | |
| 1 | 13 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | -6 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 9 | 74 | 1 | 23 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 25 | 15 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | 31 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 31 | 31 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 20 | 17 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 20 | 17 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Team | 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48 | 48.0 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 48 | 48.0 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
94
Total yds
111
37
Rush yds
37
0
TO
1
Team stats
BUF
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
94
Total yards
111
37
Rushing yds
37
0
Turnovers
1
3-15
totalPenaltiesYards
4-36
12:09
possessionTime
16:03
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -2.5
Half-pt below key 3
Total
36.5
Defensive · -10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BUF+12445%CLE-14860%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
Tied 7-7 · 1:48 - 2nd.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| CLE | 7 | 0 | 7 |
Betting line
CLE -2.5·O/U 36.5·BUF +124/CLE -148
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
-0.5 since open
Total
36.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
CLE vs BUF
Period scoring
BUF won 0 · CLE won 0
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 65 plays
−2pp
−2pp
−3pp
−3pp
−1pp
+0.9pp
−4pp
+0.6pp
+1pp
−4pp
+1pp
+2pp
−1pp
+1.0pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
BIG MOMENT
+9pp
−0.5pp
+4pp
−4pp
BIG MOMENT
+8pp
+3pp
−5pp
+1pp
+4pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
BUF
league avg
CLE
31.1
Pts / game
23.5
14.8
394
Yds / game
342
282
234
Pass yds / G
225
185
160
Rush yds / G
117
97
1.0
TO / G
0.9
1.2