Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at PHX?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

ATL

23-13

PregameSat, 10:00 PM EDTArizona's Family 3TV, Merc+, WNBA League Pass

PHX

13-23

ATS/ATL -5.5O/U/176.5ML/ATL-205

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

ATL +9.1 vs PHX -1.5 margin

ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+4.0 days

PHX 6 rest vs ATL 2

PHX has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+166.7

PHX Elo vs ATL Elo

ATL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing PHX uphill early today again.

WNBASat, Aug 228/22 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesATL leads series 2-0VegasATL -5.5

Preview · WNBA

tlanta Dream visit Phoenix Mercury Saturday at 8/22 - 10:00 PM EDT. ATL is 5-3 in their last 8.

Vegas opened ATL as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 176.5. PHX's moneyline implies a 37% break-even, ATL the inverse.

For bettors: the ATL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 176.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

FG %

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

May 24

PHX80@

ATL82

Aug 5

PHX82@

ATL96

Aug 23

ATL@

PHXtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

176.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-20567%

PHX+17037%

15· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+1.0 since open

Total

176.5

+1.0 since open

Scouting report

ATL @ PHX

8/22 - 10:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

ATLStandard

2 days

last game Aug 20

PHXUnknown

—

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

ATL -5.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

176.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

ATL -205

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

ATLmetricPHX

23-13

Record

13-23

Conf rank

+5.5

Pt diff

-3.5

Streak

7-3

Last 10

5-5

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

ATL -5.5·O/U 176.5·ATL -205/PHX +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

PHX vs ATL.

PHX is 5-5 recently; ATL is 7-3.

30.0%

model · PHX win prob

Recent form

PHX5–5-1.5
ATL7–3+9.1

Situational

PHX6d rest
ATL2d rest
+4.0d differential

PHX has 4 more rest days. PHX has 0 straight road games; ATL has 2.

Model angle

+5.5ppon ATL

ATL's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▲Recent form+1.2pp
▼Rest advantage-1.2pp
▲Head to head+0.6pp

Players to watch

Allisha GrayATL
19.7points · ±7.8
Allisha Gray · 19.7 pts · last-10 20.4 vs season 18.7.
Kahleah CopperPHX
19.4points · ±7.6
Kahleah Copper · 19.4 pts · last-10 19 vs season 19.9.
Rhyne HowardATL
18.6points · ±6.6
Rhyne Howard · 18.6 pts · last-10 19.6 vs season 17.2.

Head-to-head · 0-5 · last 5

PHX is 0-5 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-24ATL @ PHX90–79
2025-08-01PHX @ ATL72–95
2025-08-10ATL @ PHX74–66
2026-05-24PHX @ ATL80–82
2026-08-05PHX @ ATL82–96

Line move

open +170→+170flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
36.4%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
34.8%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
38.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+5.5

pp edge · ATL

5.0u · large

on ATL

78.3%

±7.3pp band

5u large — +11.1pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+13.8pp

+8.3pp post-cal

Kelly

33.8%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.49

+11.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.5pp · ATL over PHX

▲
Recent form70% conf
ATL is 4-1 over its last 5; PHX is 1-4.
+1.2pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
PHX has the rest edge entering this game.
-1.2pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
ATL has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
ATL is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
ATL is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.5pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
ATL's venue form is 5.6pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.3pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at PHX?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.5pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-205DraftKings

edge +5.5pp · implied 64.5%

PHX

no live price

Book	ATL	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	-205★	+170	+5.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumPHX
20.4± 12.3medium
Allisha GrayATL
19.7± 7.8high
Kahleah CopperPHX
19.4± 7.6high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
12.4± 2.4high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.2± 3.0high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
6.7± 3.2high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.6± 3.0high
Jordin CanadaATL
7.3± 2.4high
Kelsey PlumPHX
5.3± 3.4medium

Blocks

Rhyne HowardATL
1.1± 1.1high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
1.0± 1.2high
Angel ReeseATL
0.8± 1.2high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.4± 1.4high
Angel ReeseATL
1.8± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
1.8± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury

PHX vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like ATL.

Where to bet this game.

PHX vs ATL.