New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 22, 2026

NYM

58-70

PregameSat, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

CHW

66-61

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

7-3

NYM +1.1 vs CHW +0.8 margin

NYM brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Christian Scott

SP · #45

4-3

W-L

3.51

ERA

1.29

WHIP

105

84.2

Last 3 starts

vsWSHW(4-3)6.1 IP3 ER7 K

@ATL-4.0 IP4 ER6 K

@CLE-5.0 IP3 ER7 K

Home starter

Luis Castillo

SP · #58

4-9

W-L

4.99

ERA

1.37

WHIP

102

115.1

Last 3 starts

@CHC-4.2 IP3 ER1 K

vsCINW(4-9)7.0 IP0 ER10 K

@BOS-4.0 IP5 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob42% / 58%

LeanHome · 8pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/21

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

CHW vs NYM.

CHW is 5-5 recently; NYM is 7-3.

57.7%

model · CHW win prob

Recent form

CHW5–5+0.8
NYM7–3+1.1

Situational

CHW2d rest
NYM3d rest
-1.0d differential

NYM has 1 more rest day. CHW has 0 straight road games; NYM has 0.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Sean BurkeCHW
6.8strikeouts · ±3.0
Sean Burke · 6.8 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.2.
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.5strikeouts · ±2.3
Nolan McLean · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.5.
Sean ManaeaNYM
5.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Manaea · 5.2 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 4.3.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
57.3%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.7%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.8± 3.0high
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.5± 2.3high
Christian ScottNYM
6.2± 0.8medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.5high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.5± 3.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.1± 2.4high
Luis TorrensNYM
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Luis TorrensNYM
0.8± 1.4high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloCHW
2.9± 1.7high
Robert StockNYM
2.5± 5.0low
Sean ManaeaNYM
2.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CHW

.695

OPS

.719

▶

.726

.307

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.15

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.06

Team ERA

4.17

4.06

1.30

WHIP

1.30

1.29

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

The One modelLean

Sat, Aug 22

NYM

Mets

68-82

vs57.7%CHW

CHW★

White Sox

82-68

NYM 42.3%win prob57.7% CHW

CHW 1524 · NYM 1497Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Mets at Chicago White Sox

The matchup, end-to-end.

CHW vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league