
BAL
1-0

MIN
1-0
NFL · Drive chart
17 drives · 1 TD · 2 FG · 2 Downs · 11 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Team pages
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Back Judge
Greg Meyer
Line Judge
Rusty Baynes
Field Judge
Sean Petty
Back Judge
Scott Helverson
Back Judge
Jim Quirk
Down Judge
Mike Carr
Umpire
Brandon Ellison
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveT. Huntley
BAL · #5 · QB
C. Wentz
MIN · #11 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveBAL · top performer

Tyler Huntley
· #5
5/8
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
MIN · top performer

Carson Wentz
· #11
9/11
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
Recent swing: 10pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/8 | 63 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9/12 | 62 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 14/20 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 15 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 14 | 35 | 0 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 46 | 0 | 23 | |
| 2 | 32 | 0 | 27 | |
| 5 | 24 | 1 | 8 | |
| 3 | 14 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 14 | 125 | 1 | 27 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Team | 56 | 36 | 4 | 5 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 29 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 29 | 29 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 31 | 19 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 31 | 19 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 49 | 1/1 | 4 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 49 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 332 | 55.3 | 2 | |
| Team | 6 | 332 | 55.3 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/11 | 92 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5/10 | 81 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4/7 | 38 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 18/28 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 28 | 0 | 9 | |
| 8 | 18 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 17 | 50 | 0 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 66 | 0 | 50 | |
| 3 | 49 | 0 | 36 | |
| 5 | 43 | 0 | 18 | |
| 2 | 16 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 18 | 211 | 0 | 50 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 25 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 | |
| 1 | 21 | 21 | 0 | |
| 1 | 16 | 16 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 61 | 24 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 21 | 21 | 0 | |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 47 | 21 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 52 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 52 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 165 | 55.0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 83 | 41.5 | 2 | |
| Team | 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 3 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
151
Total yds
231
35
Rush yds
50
0
TO
0
Team stats
BAL
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
151
Total yards
231
35
Rushing yds
50
0
Turnovers
0
5-50
totalPenaltiesYards
8-68
20:35
possessionTime
23:36
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -2.5
Half-pt below key 3
Total
37.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
4· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
BAL lead MIN 10-3 (0:49 - 3rd). Tyler Huntley led the way — 5/8 · 63 YDS · 87.0 QBR. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the — (18pp).
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| MIN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Betting line
MIN -2.5·O/U 37.5·BAL +120/MIN -142
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
37.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
MIN vs BAL
Period scoring
BAL won 1 · MIN won 0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Play-by-play · 129 plays
−2pp
−2pp
+2pp
+4pp
−2pp
−2pp
−0.9pp
+1pp
+3pp
+0.7pp
+2pp
−0.9pp
BIG MOMENT
+10pp
−2pp
BIG MOMENT
−6pp
−5pp
+2pp
+1pp
+2pp
−1pp
−1pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
BAL
league avg
MIN
24.4
Pts / game
23.5
18.0
349
Yds / game
342
297
193
Pass yds / G
225
189
157
Rush yds / G
117
108
1.1
TO / G
0.9
1.4