Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

SEA

7-30

PregameSun, 4:00 PM EDTNBA TV

DAL

21-16

ATS/DAL -8.5O/U/171.5ML/DAL-380

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

3-7

DAL -2.9 vs SEA -5.2 margin

DAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-4.0 days

DAL 3 rest vs SEA 7

SEA has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+158.8

DAL Elo vs SEA Elo

DAL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing SEA uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 238/23 - 4:00 PM EDTSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -8.5

Preview · WNBA

eattle Storm visit Dallas Wings Sunday at 8/23 - 4:00 PM EDT. DAL is 3-5 in their last 8.

Vegas opened DAL as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 171.5. DAL's moneyline implies a 79% break-even, SEA the inverse.

For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 171.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

FG %

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jun 2

SEA56@

DAL79

Jun 23

DAL112@

SEA110

Aug 23

SEA@

DALtoday

Sep 24

DAL@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+30025%

DAL-38079%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -8.5↗SpreadBet DAL -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

+2.0 since open

Total

171.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

SEA @ DAL

8/23 - 4:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

SEAUnknown

—

DALStandard

2 days

last game Aug 20

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

DAL -8.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

171.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

DAL -380

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

SEAmetricDAL

7-30

Record

21-16

Conf rank

-5.1

Pt diff

+2.1

Streak

1-9

Last 10

3-7

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

DAL -8.5·O/U 171.5·SEA +300/DAL -380

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

DAL vs SEA.

DAL is 3-7 recently; SEA is 1-9.

86.5%

model · DAL win prob

Recent form

DAL3–7-2.9
SEA1–9-5.2

Situational

DAL3d rest
SEA7d rest
-4.0d differential

SEA has 4 more rest days. DAL has 0 straight road games; SEA has 0.

Model angle

+10.4ppon DAL

DAL's edge is mostly line steam plus model confidence. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▲Line steam+4.6pp
▲Model confidence+4.3pp
▲Venue split+4.3pp

Players to watch

Paige BueckersDAL
19.1points · ±6.4
Paige Bueckers · 19.1 pts · last-10 18.7 vs season 19.8.
Dominique MalongaSEA
17.8points · ±6.6
Dominique Malonga · 17.8 pts · last-10 18.6 vs season 16.5.
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
16.6points · ±8.2
Arike Ogunbowale · 16.6 pts · last-10 17.4 vs season 15.3.

Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4

DAL is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-23DAL @ SEA87–63
2025-08-22SEA @ DAL95–60
2026-06-01SEA @ DAL56–79
2026-06-22DAL @ SEA112–110

Line move

open -298→-375toward DAL

The market has moved 4.1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

87.0%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
78.9%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
78.7%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.6%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like DAL.

DAL's edge is mostly line steam plus model confidence. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+10.4

pp edge · DAL

+4.20

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on DAL

93.7%

±6.3pp band

5u large — +14.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+17.7pp

+7.3pp post-cal

Kelly

69.7%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.26

+14.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.4pp · DAL over SEA

▲
Line steam82% conf
The market moved 3.9pp toward DAL since open.
+4.6pp
▲
Model confidence90% conf
DAL clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.3pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
DAL's venue form is 45.6pp stronger in the recent sample.
+4.3pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
SEA has the rest edge entering this game.
-3.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
DAL has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

-298

Close price

-380

Open no-vig

71.8%

Close no-vig

76.0%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.8pp

best edge · DAL · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

DAL

★ best

-395DraftKings

edge +9.8pp · implied 76.6%

Book	SEA	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+310	-395★	+9.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
19.1± 6.4high
Dominique MalongaSEA
17.8± 6.5high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
16.6± 8.2high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.9± 2.3high
Jessica ShepardDAL
9.5± 4.5high
Awa FamSEA
6.2± 3.8high

Assists

Natisha HiedemanSEA
5.5± 2.5high
Paige BueckersDAL
5.3± 2.6high
Jessica ShepardDAL
4.5± 3.3high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.8± 2.0high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.8± 1.3high
Ezi MagbegorSEA
1.3± 1.9low

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.6± 1.0high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings

DAL vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like DAL.

Where to bet this game.

DAL vs SEA.