Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings
SEA
3-14
DAL
10-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
eattle Storm visit Dallas Wings Sunday at 8/23 - 4:00 PM EDT. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
41
FG %
46
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
SEA56@DAL79DAL@SEAupcomingSEA@DALtodayDAL@SEAupcomingScouting report
SEA @ DAL
Tale of the tape
3-14
Record
10-6
#8
Conf rank
#3
-7.5
Pt diff
+4.6
L10
Streak
W1
0-10
Last 10
7-3
72.7
Sched ahead
82.6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.4%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.0± 8.5medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA15.6± 5.7medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL15.3± 10.7medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.6± 4.5medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA6.8± 4.0low
- Awa FamSEA5.6± 2.5low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.4± 3.9medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.2± 3.4medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.3± 2.0medium
Blocks
- Azzi FuddDAL1.3± 1.6medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.1low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.7medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.2± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
DAL
40.8%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
33.1%
3PT %
33.5
▶34.4%
76.9
PPG
85.9
▶87.9
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.7
13.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.5