Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at LAD?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 23, 2026

PIT

63-68

PregameSun, 4:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

LAD

79-51

ATS/LAD -1.5O/U/8.5ML/LAD-272

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

5-5

PIT +1.0 vs LAD +0.7 margin

PIT brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

71.8%

open 69.0% · +2.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Lake Bachar

RP · #71

1-2

W-L

3.75

ERA

1.11

WHIP

69.2

Last 3 starts

@LAD-1.0 IP0 ER1 K

vsBOS-3.0 IP0 ER4 K

@MIA-3.0 IP3 ER1 K

Home starter

Blake Snell

SP · #7

1-1

W-L

3.60

ERA

1.13

WHIP

15.0

Last 3 starts

@COLW(1-1)6.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER10 K

vsATLL(0-1)3.0 IP4 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money+250 / -272

Model edge

Win prob38% / 62%

LeanHome · 12pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesLAD lead series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-272Bet LAD ML↗-272Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

LAD vs PIT.

LAD enters on a 5-game win streak; PIT is 5-5 over its last 10.

62.4%

model · LAD win prob

Recent form

LAD7–3+0.7
PIT5–5+1.0

Situational

LAD1d restB2B
PIT1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; PIT has 2.

Model angle

+9.5ppon PIT

PIT's edge is driven by model confidence. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-1.4pp
▼Recent form-1.2pp

Players to watch

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
Paul SkenesPIT
6.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.4 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.3.

Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2

LAD is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-21PIT @ LAD4–5
2026-08-22PIT @ LAD3–4

Line move

open -259→-301toward LAD

The market has moved 2.9pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
63.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.0%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like PIT.

PIT's edge is driven by model confidence. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner.

+9.5

pp edge · PIT

-2.87

CLV pp · steam

3.4u · large

on PIT

38.3%

±5.2pp band

3.41u large — +9.7pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+10.2pp

+0.7pp post-cal

Kelly

13.6%

3.4% sized

Decimal

3.50

+9.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 9.5pp · PIT over LAD

▲
Model confidence90% conf
PIT clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split72% conf
LAD's venue form trims PIT's edge by 27.3pp.
-1.4pp
▼
Recent form70% conf
LAD's recent form is stronger over the last 5.
-1.2pp
▼
Line steam76% conf
The market moved 2.8pp away from PIT since open.
-1.1pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
LAD has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
PIT is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.5pp

Open price

+209

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

31.0%

Close no-vig

28.1%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at LAD?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.5pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+250DraftKings

edge +9.5pp · implied 28.1%

LAD

no live price

Book	PIT	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+250★	-272	+9.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.7± 2.4high
Blake SnellLAD
6.7± 3.9low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.1± 1.2high
Brandon LowePIT
1.1± 0.7high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 3.1high
Rafael Flores Jr.PIT
2.3± 3.4high
Max MuncyLAD
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

Oneil CruzPIT
1.0± 1.1high
Rafael Flores Jr.PIT
0.9± 1.9high
Max MuncyLAD
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
2.7± 2.2high
Eric LauerLAD
2.6± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

LAD

.740

OPS

.718

▶

.763

.331

OBP

.318

▶

.335

4.98

Runs / G

4.50

4.99

4.29

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.70

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.16

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.2

The One modelEdge

Sun, Aug 23

PIT

Pirates

68-76

vs62.4%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

94-65

PIT 37.6%win prob62.4% LAD

LAD 1558 · PIT 1483Box score→

Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take LAD on the model side.

LAD vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like PIT.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like PIT.