Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
SF
SF
52-77
PregameSun, 3:15 PM EDTNBC
BOS
BOS
70-59
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Line movement
200 snapshots
BOS spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
BOS no-vig %
66.8%
open 66.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
M
Matt Wilkinson
SP · #71
0-0
W-L
0.00
ERA
0.50
WHIP
0
K
2.0
IP
Last 1 starts
@CLE-2.0 IP0 ER0 K
Home starter
Jake Bennett
SP · #64
7-6
W-L
3.46
ERA
1.07
WHIP
61
K
80.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@PITL(7-6)4.0 IP4 ER6 K
vsATHL(7-5)5.1 IP4 ER5 K
@LADW(7-4)5.2 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+201 / -217
Model edge
Win prob34% / 66%
LeanHome · 16pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take BOS on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs SF.
BOS is 6-4 recently; SF is 3-7.
66.0%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS6–4+1.7
- SF3–7-1.3
Situational
- BOS1d restB2B
- SF1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; SF has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Payton TolleBOS6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.1strikeouts · ±2.5
Ranger Suarez · 5.1 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.1.
Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2
BOS is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-21SF @ BOS4–6
- 2026-08-22SF @ BOS2–3
Line move
open -231→-231flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.5%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
70.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
71.8%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.37 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.9± 2.7high
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5± 2.1high
- Patrick SandovalBOS5.1± 1.7low
Hits
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.2± 1.1high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 0.9high
- Nick SogardBOS1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.1± 1.9high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.0± 2.6high
- Willy AdamesSF2.0± 1.8high
RBIs
- Caleb DurbinBOS0.7± 1.6high
- Mickey GasperBOS0.7± 1.1high
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Carson WhisenhuntSF3.6± 2.7low
- Landen RouppSF2.7± 1.9high
- Logan WebbSF2.7± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
BOS
.710
OPS
.718
▶.730
.305
OBP
.318
▶.324
4.02
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.53
4.35
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.51
1.36
WHIP
1.30
▶1.22
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One model★ Lock
Sun, Aug 23SF
Giants
71-88
vs66.0%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
80-73
SF 34.0%win prob66.0% BOS
BOS 1568 · SF 1441Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsPhillies8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/23 - 1:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/23 - 2:35 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/23 - 3:10 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/23 - 4:15 PM EDT
- BravesBrewers8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
