Park factor
115 total idx
Coors Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
CLE
CLE
63-66
PregameSun, 3:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
COL
COL
50-78
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCoors Field · Denver, Colorado
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Foster Griffin
SP · #22
14-4
W-L
3.18
ERA
1.11
WHIP
131
K
144.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSFW(14-4)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
@DETW(13-4)5.0 IP1 ER3 K
vsNYML(12-4)4.0 IP5 ER6 K
Home starter
Tomoyuki Sugano
SP · #11
12-6
W-L
4.70
ERA
1.26
WHIP
69
K
118.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLADL(12-6)5.0 IP6 ER3 K
@ARIW(12-5)6.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsTBL(11-5)5.0 IP3 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob68% / 32%
LeanAway · 18pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesCLE leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
COL vs CLE.
COL has dropped 4 straight; CLE is 5-5 over its last 10.
32.3%
model · COL win prob
Recent form
- COL4–6-2.0
- CLE5–5+1.2
Situational
- COL2d rest
- CLE2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; CLE has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+1.3pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.5strikeouts · ±2.7
Gavin Williams · 8.5 K · last-10 9 vs season 7.7.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.7strikeouts · ±2.0
Joey Cantillo · 5.7 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Parker Messick · 5.5 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.9.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
COL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-21CLE @ COL9–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
31.1%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
38.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.7%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.85 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
COL vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.5± 2.7high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.7± 2.0high
- Parker MessickCLE5.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Angel GenaoCLE1.0± 1.2low
- Angel MartinezCLE1.0± 1.0high
Total bases
- Jo AdellCLE1.8± 2.3high
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.7± 1.8high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.5± 1.6high
RBIs
- Jo AdellCLE1.0± 1.9high
- Zac VeenCOL0.9± 1.1low
- Brett SullivanCOL0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.6± 2.6medium
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.5± 3.5low
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.5± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
COL
.684
OPS
.718
▶.740
.314
OBP
.318
▶.323
4.00
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.78
3.76
Team ERA
◀
4.16
5.54
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.52
9.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.0
The One model★ Lock
Sun, Aug 23CLE★
Guardians
83-72
vs67.8%CLE
COL
Rockies
56-92
CLE 67.8%win prob32.2% COL
CLE 1520 · COL 1417Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
