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Ford Field · Detroit, MI
50,042 attended
FINAL+4DET
WSH
1-1
1317
DET
1-1
NFL · Drive chart
19 drives · 2 TD · 3 FG · 1 INT · 1 Fum · 1 Downs · 1 Miss · 7 PuntFumblDET2p · -11y INTDET6p · 16y PuntWSH3p · 1y TDDET7p · 90y PuntWSH10p · 38y PuntDET13p · 39y PuntWSH6p · 24y MissDET7p · 35y ½WSH3p · -6y FGWSH11p · 78y PuntDET6p · 16y PuntWSH3p · 5y TDDET7p · 48y FGWSH6p · 61y PuntDET5p · 18y DownsWSH5p · 25y FGDET8p · 20y FumWSH0p EndDET6p · 8y
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
WSH
league avg
DET
20.5
Pts / game
23.5
▶32.1
331
Yds / game
342
▶389
196
Pass yds / G
225
▶269
135
Rush yds / G
◀
117
120
1.1
TO / G
0.9
▶0.7
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
