NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5DET

MIN

46-30

108113

DET

56-21

NBAThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -5.5

MIN · top performer

Julius Randle

F · #30

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Daniss Jenkins

G · #24

22.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:51

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	35	27	9-15	2-5	7-10	+2	6	6
R. GobertC · #27	27	6	2-3	—	2-4	-10	7	1
M. ConleyG · #10	22	14	4-8	4-7	2-2	-12	2	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	30	5	2-8	1-7	—	-8	1	1
A. DosunmuG · #13	33	19	7-15	2-7	3-3	-11	5	4
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	26	2	1-2	—	—	-3	7	2
N. ReidC · #11	31	19	6-16	4-9	3-4	+5	6	3
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	18	10	4-7	0-1	2-2	+3	3	1
B. HylandG · #8	19	6	3-12	0-6	—	+9	3	2
Team		108	38-86	13-42	19-25		40	22
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	6	2	1-1	—	—	+3	0	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	29	15	5-11	3-7	2-2	+10	4	3
J. DurenC · #0	36	22	8-15	—	6-10	+6	14	4
A. ThompsonG · #9	31	7	3-6	—	1-2	+15	9	9
D. JenkinsG · #24	37	26	9-19	2-2	6-7	+13	5	8
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	16	4	2-4	—	—	-4	4	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	16	8	4-7	0-2	—	+1	0	0
J. GreenG · #31	27	8	2-7	2-5	2-2	+3	6	0
C. LeVertG · #8	14	7	3-7	1-3	0-2	-11	2	0
K. HuerterG · #27	22	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	-7	4	2
M. SasserG · #25	8	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-4	0	1
Team		113	41-86	10-23	21-29		48	29
DNP: T. Smith, W. Moore Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

38-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-86

FG %

13-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-23

19-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Mar 28

DET109@

MIN87

Apr 2

MIN108@

DET113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+17037%

DET-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -5.5↗SpreadBet DET -5.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat MIN 113-108. D. Jenkins paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

37 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

DETstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 32 REB · 25 AST

GS 68

Bench(6)

41 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN3rd Quarter · 5:51 · 65-66

+14pp→ 39% WP

Naz Reid · enters the game for Julius Randle

DET4th Quarter · 8:05 · 89-87

+13pp→ 55% WP

Mike Conley · shooting foul

MIN4th Quarter · 17.3 · 105-109

+11pp→ 17% WP

Kevin Huerter · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	31	23	26	28	108
DET	30	24	25	34	113

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · DET won 2

Randle 10

Duren 10

Conley 9

LeVert 5

Reid 9

Green 6

Dosunmu 11

Jenkins 11

MIN

DET

Shooting comparison

MIN

DET

44%

38-86

48%

41-86

31%

13-42

3PT

43%

10-23

76%

19-25

72%

21-29

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 108·DET 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 108·DET 113
Q4·1.0
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 108·DET 113
Q4·1.6
Naz Reid misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 108·DET 113
+1pp
Q4·3.8
Javonte Green bad pass turnover (Kyle Anderson steals)
·
MIN 108·DET 113
−1pp
Q4·3.8
Ayo Dosunmu makes 3-foot two point shot
MIN 108·DET 113
Q4·8.9
Javonte Green makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 106·DET 113
Q4·8.9
Javonte Green makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 106·DET 112
Q4·8.9
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 106·DET 111
+1pp
Q4·8.9
Javonte Green defensive rebound
MIN 106·DET 111
+0.9pp
Q4·10.6
Ayo Dosunmu misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 106·DET 111
+3pp
Q4·14.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 106·DET 111
Q4·14.1
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 106·DET 111
−2pp
Q4·14.1
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
MIN 106·DET 110
Q4·14.1
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 106·DET 110
+0.7pp
Q4·14.1
Naz Reid personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 106·DET 109
+6pp
Q4·17.3
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
MIN 106·DET 109
+7pp
Q4·17.3
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
MIN 105·DET 109
Q4·17.3
Kevin Huerter shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 105·DET 109
−11pp
Q4·17.3
Ayo Dosunmu makes 4-foot two point shot
MIN 105·DET 109
−2pp
Q4·24.7
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 103·DET 109
Q4·24.7
Pistons offensive team rebound
MIN 103·DET 108
−2pp
Q4·24.7
Jalen Duren misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 103·DET 108
−1pp
Q4·24.7
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 103·DET 108
+3pp
Q4·24.7
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
MIN 103·DET 108
+1pp
Q4·26.5
Donte DiVincenzo misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 103·DET 108
+4pp
Q4·31.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 103·DET 108
Q4·31.1
Kyle Anderson defensive rebound
MIN 103·DET 108
Q4·31.4
Jalen Duren misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 103·DET 108
−6pp
Q4·31.4
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
MIN 103·DET 108

Betting line

DET -5.5·O/U 220.5·MIN +170/DET -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 113–108. Decided by 5.

MIN +5.5 cashed (DET won by 5). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Paul ReedDET · F
TS%65.092
Ayo DosunmuMIN · G
TS%63.086

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
John CollinsDET
5.8± 2.5high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota TimberwolvesDetroit Pistons

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR