MIN
46-30
DET
56-21
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 113–108. Decided by 5.
MIN +5.5 cashed (DET won by 5). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Julius Randle
F · #30
27
Pts
6
Reb
6
Ast
DET · top performer
Daniss Jenkins
G · #24
26
Pts
5
Reb
8
Ast
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 27 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 7-10 | +2 | 6 | 6 | |
| 27 | 6 | 2-3 | — | 2-4 | -10 | 7 | 1 | |
| 22 | 14 | 4-8 | 4-7 | 2-2 | -12 | 2 | 2 | |
| 30 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-7 | — | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| 33 | 19 | 7-15 | 2-7 | 3-3 | -11 | 5 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -3 | 7 | 2 | |
| 31 | 19 | 6-16 | 4-9 | 3-4 | +5 | 6 | 3 | |
| 18 | 10 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3-12 | 0-6 | — | +9 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 108 | 38-86 | 13-42 | 19-25 | 40 | 22 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark | ||||||||
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 29 | 15 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 2-2 | +10 | 4 | 3 | |
| 36 | 22 | 8-15 | — | 6-10 | +6 | 14 | 4 | |
| 31 | 7 | 3-6 | — | 1-2 | +15 | 9 | 9 | |
| 37 | 26 | 9-19 | 2-2 | 6-7 | +13 | 5 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | -4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 16 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 8 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +3 | 6 | 0 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-2 | -11 | 2 | 0 | |
| 22 | 12 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | -7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 113 | 41-86 | 10-23 | 21-29 | 48 | 29 | ||
| DNP: T. Smith, W. Moore Jr. | ||||||||
DNP: T. Smith, W. Moore Jr.
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
48
22
Ast
29
Season series
DET wins series 2-0
DET109@MIN87MIN108@DET113todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
220.5
Standard · -5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+17037%DET-20567%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
220.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:51
MINJ. Randle
FGame leader · 35 min
27 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST
DETD. Jenkins
GGame leader · 37 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
DET beat MIN 113-108. D. Jenkins paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST
GS 53
Bench(4)
37 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST
GS 29
DETstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 32 REB · 25 AST
GS 68
Bench(6)
41 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 29
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNaz Reid · enters the game for Julius Randle
Mike Conley · shooting foul
Kevin Huerter · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 31 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 108 |
| DET | 30 | 24 | 25 | 34 | 113 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · DET won 2
Q1
Randle 10
Duren 10
Q2
Conley 9
LeVert 5
Q3
Reid 9
Green 6
Q4
Dosunmu 11
Jenkins 11
Shooting comparison
44%
38-86
FG
48%
41-86
31%
13-42
3PT
43%
10-23
76%
19-25
FT
72%
21-29
Play-by-play · 488 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 108·DET 113
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 108·DET 113
- Q4·1.0
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 108·DET 113
- Q4·1.6
Naz Reid misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 108·DET 113
+1pp
- Q4·3.8
Javonte Green bad pass turnover (Kyle Anderson steals)
·
MIN 108·DET 113
−1pp
- Q4·3.8
Ayo Dosunmu makes 3-foot two point shot
MIN 108·DET 113
- Q4·8.9
Javonte Green makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 106·DET 113
- Q4·8.9
Javonte Green makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 106·DET 112
- Q4·8.9
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 106·DET 111
+1pp
- Q4·8.9
Javonte Green defensive rebound
MIN 106·DET 111
+0.9pp
- Q4·10.6
Ayo Dosunmu misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 106·DET 111
+3pp
- Q4·14.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 106·DET 111
- Q4·14.1
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 106·DET 111
−2pp
- Q4·14.1
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
MIN 106·DET 110
- Q4·14.1
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 106·DET 110
+0.7pp
- Q4·14.1
Naz Reid personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 106·DET 109
+6pp
- Q4·17.3
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
MIN 106·DET 109
+7pp
- Q4·17.3
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
MIN 105·DET 109
- Q4·17.3
Kevin Huerter shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 105·DET 109
−11pp
- Q4·17.3
Ayo Dosunmu makes 4-foot two point shot
MIN 105·DET 109
−2pp
- Q4·24.7
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 103·DET 109
- Q4·24.7
Pistons offensive team rebound
MIN 103·DET 108
−2pp
- Q4·24.7
Jalen Duren misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 103·DET 108
−1pp
- Q4·24.7
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 103·DET 108
+3pp
- Q4·24.7
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
MIN 103·DET 108
+1pp
- Q4·26.5
Donte DiVincenzo misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 103·DET 108
+4pp
- Q4·31.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 103·DET 108
- Q4·31.1
Kyle Anderson defensive rebound
MIN 103·DET 108
- Q4·31.4
Jalen Duren misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 103·DET 108
−6pp
- Q4·31.4
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
MIN 103·DET 108
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DET
Home
38-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-86
44
FG %
48
13-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-23
19-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-29
22
Assists
29
14
Turnovers
12
Betting line
DET -5.5·O/U 220.5·MIN +170/DET -205
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.091- Julius RandleMIN · FDRIVES1290
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- Julius RandleMIN17.3± 6.4high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Julius RandleMIN7.2± 2.1high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
- Ausar ThompsonDET3.5± 2.1high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Cade CunninghamDET1.4± 1.2high
- Tobias HarrisDET1.3± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
DET
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
48.0%
116.8
PPG
114.9
115.9
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.0
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3