CLE
48-29
GS
36-41
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 118–111.
GS +10.5 cashed (CLE won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CLE · top performer
Donovan Mitchell
G · #45
25
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
GS · top performer
Brandin Podziemski
G · #2
25
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 16 | 5-10 | — | 6-12 | +12 | 13 | 0 | |
| 32 | 12 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | +3 | 10 | 5 | |
| 37 | 19 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 2-2 | +1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 34 | 25 | 7-14 | 4-7 | 7-7 | +1 | 6 | 3 | |
| 28 | 24 | 9-14 | 6-10 | — | +17 | 5 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | +3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 20 | 12 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 3-3 | -8 | 2 | 6 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-6 | — | +12 | 2 | 5 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | — | -6 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 118 | 42-82 | 16-36 | 18-26 | 46 | 28 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor | ||||||||
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 8 | 3-11 | 2-8 | — | +6 | 9 | 9 | |
| 31 | 25 | 9-14 | 2-6 | 5-6 | +5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 28 | 16 | 6-13 | 0-5 | 4-4 | -16 | 7 | 1 | |
| 26 | 5 | 2-12 | 1-5 | — | -15 | 6 | 3 | |
| 35 | 25 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 5-6 | -11 | 4 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-2 | — | +8 | 12 | 2 | |
| 25 | 12 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 3-4 | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-4 | — | -3 | 1 | 2 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 111 | 41-94 | 12-44 | 17-20 | 46 | 25 | ||
| DNP: M. Leons, O. Yurtseven, Q. Post, Se. Curry, N. Williams | ||||||||
DNP: M. Leons, O. Yurtseven, Q. Post, Se. Curry, N. Williams
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
44
28
Ast
25
Season series
Series tied 1-1
GS99@CLE94CLE118@GS111todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
230.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE-48583%GS+37021%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
230.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 32pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:33
CLED. Mitchell
GGame leader · 34 min
25 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GSB. Podziemski
GGame leader · 35 min
25 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
CLE beat GS 118-111. D. Mitchell paced them with 25 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the 3rd quarter (32pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 36 REB · 15 AST
GS 79
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 10 REB · 13 AST
GS 19
GSstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 30 REB · 21 AST
GS 65
Bench(4)
32 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLJ Cryer · makes technical free throw
Gui Santos · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)
(02:33) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 30 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 118 |
| GS | 26 | 21 | 33 | 31 | 111 |
Period scoring
CLE won 3 · GS won 1
Q1
Mitchell 6
Spencer 7
Q2
Mitchell 6
Melton 5
Q3
Mitchell 9
Melton 22
Q4
Strus 8
Podziemski 14
Shooting comparison
51%
42-82
FG
44%
41-94
44%
16-36
3PT
27%
12-44
69%
18-26
FT
85%
17-20
Play-by-play · 487 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 118·GS 111
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 118·GS 111
- Q4·1.8
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 118·GS 111
- Q4·5.1
LJ Cryer misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 118·GS 111
−0.5pp
- Q4·9.5
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 118·GS 111
- Q4·9.5
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 117·GS 111
- Q4·9.5
Draymond Green personal foul
CLE 116·GS 111
−0.6pp
- Q4·10.5
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 116·GS 111
- Q4·10.5
De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Gui Santos
·
CLE 116·GS 111
- Q4·10.5
Gary Payton II enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis
·
CLE 116·GS 111
- Q4·10.5
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 116·GS 111
- Q4·10.6
Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup
CLE 116·GS 111
- Q4·15.3
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 116·GS 109
- Q4·15.3
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 115·GS 109
+0.5pp
- Q4·15.3
Jarrett Allen misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 115·GS 109
- Q4·15.3
Kristaps Porzingis personal foul
CLE 115·GS 109
−0.7pp
- Q4·15.3
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 115·GS 109
−0.6pp
- Q4·17.9
Gui Santos misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 115·GS 109
−2pp
- Q4·21.8
Warriors Full timeout
CLE 115·GS 109
- Q4·21.9
James Harden makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot
CLE 115·GS 109
−5pp
- Q4·43.8
Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup (Kristaps Porzingis assists)
·
CLE 113·GS 109
+3pp
- Q4·54.5
Max Strus makes 28-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 113·GS 107
−9pp
- Q4·1:16
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 110·GS 107
−2pp
- Q4·1:18
Draymond Green misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·GS 107
−6pp
- Q4·1:30
Gui Santos defensive rebound
CLE 110·GS 107
+2pp
- Q4·1:33
Max Strus misses 28-foot three point jumper
CLE 110·GS 107
+5pp
- Q4·1:45
Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup (Gui Santos assists)
·
CLE 110·GS 107
+5pp
- Q4·1:56
Max Strus makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 110·GS 105
−12pp
- Q4·2:21
Brandin Podziemski makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 107·GS 105
+6pp
- Q4·2:28
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 107·GS 103
+4pp
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
GS
Home
42-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-94
51
FG %
44
16-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-44
18-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-20
28
Assists
25
15
Turnovers
12
Betting line
CLE -10.5·O/U 230.5·CLE -485/GS +370
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.898
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
James HardenCLE · GDRIVES12.692
Sam MerrillCLE · GTS%64.491
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
- Kristaps PorzingisGS5.6± 2.4high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CLE
league avg
GS
55.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
117.4
PPG
114.9
114.5
27.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1