NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12POR

25-52

106118

POR

40-38

NBAThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesPOR wins series 3-1VegasPOR -5.5

NO · top performer

Jeremiah Fears

G · #0

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Jrue Holiday

G · #5

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 4:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	26	9	3-9	2-5	1-2	-9	4	3
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	29	15	4-7	—	7-8	-11	1	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	36	19	7-17	1-6	4-4	-17	8	2
D. MurrayG · #5	28	9	4-10	0-2	1-1	-24	8	5
S. BeyG · #41	35	15	6-14	3-5	0-2	-22	6	1
Bench
D. QueenC · #22	28	12	4-10	0-1	4-4	+2	6	7
Y. MissiC · #21	20	6	3-6	—	—	-3	7	0
M. PeavyG · #14	12	0	0-1	—	—	+12	2	3
J. FearsG · #0	26	21	7-10	3-4	4-5	+12	2	1
Team		106	38-84	9-23	21-26		44	25
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, J. Poole, T. Alexander, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	39	23	8-15	6-12	1-1	+22	4	1
D. AvdijaF · #8	37	26	7-20	2-7	10-13	+10	8	7
D. ClinganC · #23	22	4	2-4	0-2	—	+1	9	2
J. HolidayG · #5	37	27	10-22	7-15	—	+14	5	9
S. HendersonG · #00	20	14	6-12	2-4	—	-14	1	3
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	20	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	+3	3	1
R. Williams IIIC · #35	23	6	3-5	—	—	+11	9	1
M. ThybulleG · #4	31	13	4-9	3-8	2-2	+21	5	2
S. CissokoG · #91	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	-8	1	1
Team		118	42-92	20-51	14-18		45	27
DNP: J. Grant, D. Lillard, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, C. Youngblood

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

38-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-92

FG %

9-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-51

21-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 3-1

Nov 13

POR125@

NO117

Dec 12

POR120@

NO143

Jan 3

POR122@

NO109

Apr 3

NO106@

POR118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+20033%

POR-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -5.5↗SpreadBet POR -5.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat NO 118-106. J. Holiday paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. POR outscored the other side 28-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 42

Bench(4)

39 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

PORstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST

GS 76

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO4th Quarter · 9:59 · 86-90

+12pp→ 32% WP

Jeremiah Fears · makes free throw 1 of 2

NO4th Quarter · 3:22 · 103-107

+9pp→ 22% WP

Deni Avdija · misses free throw 2 of 2

NO4th Quarter · 4:26 · 103-106

+24pp→ 24% WP

Robert Williams III · enters the game for Donovan Clingan

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	32	33	16	25	106
POR	35	25	28	30	118

Period scoring

NO won 1 · POR won 3

Bey 10

Henderson 8

III 13

Avdija 10

Jones 5

Holiday 10

Fears 7

Holiday 11

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

45%

38-84

46%

42-92

39%

9-23

3PT

39%

20-51

81%

21-26

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·20.7
Jeremiah Fears bad pass turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)
·
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·22.3
shot clock turnover
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·44.7
Deni Avdija defensive rebound
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·46.5
Zion Williamson misses driving layup
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·55.0
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 106·POR 118
Q4·55.0
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
NO 106·POR 117
Q4·55.0
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 106·POR 117
Q4·55.0
Herbert Jones personal foul
NO 106·POR 116
Q4·1:09
Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 106·POR 116
Q4·1:09
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 105·POR 116
Q4·1:09
Herbert Jones misses free throw 1 of 2
NO 105·POR 116
+0.5pp
Q4·1:09
Deni Avdija personal foul
NO 105·POR 116
−0.6pp
Q4·1:21
Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 105·POR 116
+1pp
Q4·1:40
Jrue Holiday defensive rebound
NO 105·POR 113
Q4·1:43
Herbert Jones misses 23-foot pullup jump shot
NO 105·POR 113
+2pp
Q4·1:56
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 105·POR 113
−1pp
Q4·1:56
Herbert Jones enters the game for Derik Queen
·
NO 105·POR 112
Q4·1:56
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 105·POR 112
Q4·1:56
Derik Queen shooting foul
NO 105·POR 111
+3pp
Q4·2:14
Derik Queen lost ball turnover (Deni Avdija steals)
·
NO 105·POR 111
+4pp
Q4·2:16
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 105·POR 111
−3pp
Q4·2:18
Dejounte Murray misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
·
NO 105·POR 111
+3pp
Q4·2:40
Robert Williams III makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Deni Avdija assists)
· ·
NO 105·POR 111
+5pp
Q4·2:49
Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Dejounte Murray assists)
· ·
NO 105·POR 109
−4pp
Q4·3:05
Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Matisse Thybulle assists)
·
NO 103·POR 109
+5pp
Q4·3:20
Robert Williams III offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
NO 103·POR 107
+6pp
Q4·3:22
Deni Avdija misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 103·POR 107
−9pp
Q4·3:22
Zion Williamson enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
NO 103·POR 107

Betting line

POR -5.5·O/U 235.5·NO +200/POR -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off New Orleans Pelicans, 118–106.

POR -5.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

POR

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.0%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

115.5

PPG

114.9

114.6

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Team pages

New Orleans PelicansPortland Trail Blazers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR