NO
25-52
POR
40-38
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off New Orleans Pelicans, 118–106.
POR -5.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NO · top performer
Jeremiah Fears
G · #0
21
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
POR · top performer
Jrue Holiday
G · #5
27
Pts
5
Reb
9
Ast
NBA · New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 9 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | -9 | 4 | 3 | |
| 29 | 15 | 4-7 | — | 7-8 | -11 | 1 | 3 | |
| 36 | 19 | 7-17 | 1-6 | 4-4 | -17 | 8 | 2 | |
| 28 | 9 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 1-1 | -24 | 8 | 5 | |
| 35 | 15 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 0-2 | -22 | 6 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 28 | 12 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 4-4 | +2 | 6 | 7 | |
| 20 | 6 | 3-6 | — | — | -3 | 7 | 0 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +12 | 2 | 3 | |
| 26 | 21 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 4-5 | +12 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 106 | 38-84 | 9-23 | 21-26 | 44 | 25 | ||
| DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, J. Poole, T. Alexander, J. Hawkins | ||||||||
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, J. Poole, T. Alexander, J. Hawkins
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 39 | 23 | 8-15 | 6-12 | 1-1 | +22 | 4 | 1 | |
| 37 | 26 | 7-20 | 2-7 | 10-13 | +10 | 8 | 7 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 9 | 2 | |
| 37 | 27 | 10-22 | 7-15 | — | +14 | 5 | 9 | |
| 20 | 14 | 6-12 | 2-4 | — | -14 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 23 | 6 | 3-5 | — | — | +11 | 9 | 1 | |
| 31 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 2-2 | +21 | 5 | 2 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 118 | 42-92 | 20-51 | 14-18 | 45 | 27 | ||
| DNP: J. Grant, D. Lillard, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, C. Youngblood | ||||||||
DNP: J. Grant, D. Lillard, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, C. Youngblood
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
46
25
Ast
27
Season series
POR wins series 3-1
POR125@NO117POR120@NO143POR122@NO109NO106@POR118todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NO+20033%POR-24571%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 4:26
NOJ. Fears
GGame leader · 26 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
PORJ. Holiday
GGame leader · 37 min
27 PTS · 5 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
POR beat NO 118-106. J. Holiday paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. POR outscored the other side 28-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs NO
Starters vs bench
production by unitNOstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST
GS 42
Bench(4)
39 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST
GS 39
PORstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
94 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST
GS 76
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJeremiah Fears · makes free throw 1 of 2
Deni Avdija · misses free throw 2 of 2
Robert Williams III · enters the game for Donovan Clingan
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 32 | 33 | 16 | 25 | 106 |
| POR | 35 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 118 |
Period scoring
NO won 1 · POR won 3
Q1
Bey 10
Henderson 8
Q2
III 13
Avdija 10
Q3
Jones 5
Holiday 10
Q4
Fears 7
Holiday 11
Shooting comparison
45%
38-84
FG
46%
42-92
39%
9-23
3PT
39%
20-51
81%
21-26
FT
78%
14-18
Play-by-play · 479 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·20.7
Jeremiah Fears bad pass turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)
·
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·22.3
shot clock turnover
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·44.7
Deni Avdija defensive rebound
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·46.5
Zion Williamson misses driving layup
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·55.0
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 106·POR 118
- Q4·55.0
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
NO 106·POR 117
- Q4·55.0
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 106·POR 117
- Q4·55.0
Herbert Jones personal foul
NO 106·POR 116
- Q4·1:09
Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 106·POR 116
- Q4·1:09
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 105·POR 116
- Q4·1:09
Herbert Jones misses free throw 1 of 2
NO 105·POR 116
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:09
Deni Avdija personal foul
NO 105·POR 116
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:21
Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 105·POR 116
+1pp
- Q4·1:40
Jrue Holiday defensive rebound
NO 105·POR 113
- Q4·1:43
Herbert Jones misses 23-foot pullup jump shot
NO 105·POR 113
+2pp
- Q4·1:56
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 105·POR 113
−1pp
- Q4·1:56
Herbert Jones enters the game for Derik Queen
·
NO 105·POR 112
- Q4·1:56
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 105·POR 112
- Q4·1:56
Derik Queen shooting foul
NO 105·POR 111
+3pp
- Q4·2:14
Derik Queen lost ball turnover (Deni Avdija steals)
·
NO 105·POR 111
+4pp
- Q4·2:16
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 105·POR 111
−3pp
- Q4·2:18
Dejounte Murray misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
·
NO 105·POR 111
+3pp
- Q4·2:40
Robert Williams III makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Deni Avdija assists)
· ·
NO 105·POR 111
+5pp
- Q4·2:49
Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Dejounte Murray assists)
· ·
NO 105·POR 109
−4pp
- Q4·3:05
Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Matisse Thybulle assists)
·
NO 103·POR 109
+5pp
- Q4·3:20
Robert Williams III offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
NO 103·POR 107
+6pp
- Q4·3:22
Deni Avdija misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 103·POR 107
−9pp
- Q4·3:22
Zion Williamson enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
NO 103·POR 107
Team stats
NO
Away
Stat
POR
Home
38-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-92
45
FG %
46
9-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
20-51
21-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-18
25
Assists
27
19
Turnovers
13
Betting line
POR -5.5·O/U 235.5·NO +200/POR -245
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+- Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · NO favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs NO.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Trey Murphy IIINO20.0± 6.2high
- Jeremiah FearsNO19.9± 10.9high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Derik QueenNO8.1± 5.6high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Dejounte MurrayNO6.4± 4.4low
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
Blocks
- Yves MissiNO1.8± 1.5high
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Dejounte MurrayNO1.6± 0.9low
- Jeremiah FearsNO1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
NO
league avg
POR
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
46.6%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
115.5
PPG
114.9
114.6
25.1
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
13.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2