NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20CHA

PHX

42-35

107127

CHA

41-36

NBAThu, Apr 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHA -5.5

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Phoenix Suns, 127–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -5.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Jalen Green

G · #4

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Miles Bridges

F · #0

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	29	13	5-12	3-5	—	-14	1	3
O. IghodaroF · #11	25	6	3-6	—	—	-7	9	1
D. BookerG · #1	36	22	9-22	3-8	1-1	-13	5	6
C. GillespieG · #12	24	6	2-7	2-7	—	-7	3	3
J. GreenG · #4	34	25	10-19	3-6	2-2	-11	4	7
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	17	3	1-2	1-2	—	-5	1	0
R. DunnF · #0	3	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
R. FlemingF · #20	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	0	0
M. WilliamsC · #15	20	12	6-7	—	—	-12	4	1
K. MaluachC · #10	3	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-1	0	0
G. AllenG · #8	25	13	4-10	2-6	3-5	-16	2	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	12	3	1-2	1-2	—	-8	1	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	3	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	0
K. BreaG · #14	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
Team		107	42-91	16-39	7-10		31	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	27	25	10-16	4-8	1-2	+12	4	2
M. DiabateF · #14	25	4	2-2	—	—	+10	10	1
B. MillerF · #24	31	17	7-14	3-8	—	+16	4	4
L. BallG · #1	25	15	6-13	2-6	1-1	+13	2	11
K. KnueppelG · #7	33	20	7-14	4-9	2-2	+5	3	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	21	10	3-10	2-8	2-2	+8	7	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	23	8	3-3	—	2-2	+10	7	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	2	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
C. WhiteG · #3	20	19	6-13	3-7	4-5	+5	4	3
J. GreenG · #10	7	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
T. MannG · #23	3	2	1-1	—	—	+1	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	23	7	3-7	0-3	1-1	+16	5	1
Team		127	48-93	18-49	13-15		47	27
DNP: X. Tillman

DNP: X. Tillman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 9

CHA99@

PHX111

Apr 2

PHX107@

CHA127today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+19034%

CHA-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -5.5↗SpreadBet CHA -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:56

PHX

J. Green

Game leader · 34 min

25 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST

CHA

M. Bridges

Game leader · 27 min

25 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

CHA beat PHX 127-107. M. Bridges paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 33-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST

GS 52

Bench(9)

35 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST

GS 22

CHAstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST

GS 68

Bench(7)

46 PTS · 24 REB · 7 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA2nd Quarter · 5:13 · 53-52

+6pp→ 61% WP

Miles Bridges · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)

CHA2nd Quarter · 3:12 · 58-57

+6pp→ 61% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 26-foot three pointer

CHA3rd Quarter · 7:57 · 71-81

+6pp→ 93% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes technical free throw

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	41	19	27	20	107
CHA	33	33	36	25	127

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · CHA won 3

Booker 12

Ball 5

Green 6

White 10

Ighodaro 6

White 16

Williams 6

James 5

PHX

CHA

Shooting comparison

PHX

CHA

46%

42-91

52%

48-93

41%

16-39

3PT

37%

18-49

70%

7-10

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 107·CHA 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 107·CHA 127
Q4·10.7
shot clock turnover
PHX 107·CHA 127
Q4·32.4
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
PHX 107·CHA 127
Q4·34.6
Khaman Maluach misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 107·CHA 127
Q4·51.4
Tre Mann makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)
·
PHX 107·CHA 127
Q4·1:15
Koby Brea bad pass turnover (Ryan Kalkbrenner steals)
·
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·1:28
Jamaree Bouyea offensive rebound
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·1:31
Jamaree Bouyea misses driving floating jump shot
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·1:47
shot clock turnover
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·1:48
Hornets offensive team rebound
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·1:50
Grant Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·2:10
Grant Williams defensive rebound
·
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·2:14
Khaman Maluach misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·2:14
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Sion James
·
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·2:14
Khaman Maluach makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 107·CHA 125
Q4·2:14
Ryan Kalkbrenner loose ball foul
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:14
Suns defensive team rebound
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:16
Grant Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:37
Tre Mann enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:37
Grant Williams enters the game for Miles Bridges
· ·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:37
Hornets defensive team rebound
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:37
Koby Brea misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Koby Brea enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jalen Green
· ·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Devin Booker
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
PHX 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:52
Josh Green enters the game for Moussa Diabate
· ·
PHX 106·CHA 125

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

42-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-93

FG %

16-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-49

7-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CHA -5.5·O/U 227.5·PHX +190/CHA -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.693
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Collin GillespiePHX · G
TOUCHES59.383

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHA vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
LaMelo BallCHA
22.2± 8.0high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Miles BridgesCHA
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

LaMelo BallCHA
7.3± 2.5high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Collin GillespiePHX
3.3± 1.9high

Blocks

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Moussa DiabateCHA
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high
LaMelo BallCHA
1.1± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

CHA

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR