LAL
50-27
OKC
61-16
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Los Angeles Lakers, 139–96. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
OKC -9.5 cashed (won by 43). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAL · top performer
Jarred Vanderbilt
F · #2
9
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
28
Pts
7
Reb
7
Ast
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 13 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 6-8 | -37 | 6 | 2 | |
| 33 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-2 | — | -15 | 8 | 2 | |
| 20 | 8 | 4-7 | — | — | -23 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 12 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 5-6 | -25 | 4 | 7 | |
| 27 | 15 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 3-3 | -23 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-3 | — | -39 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 9 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +2 | 5 | 3 | |
| 21 | 12 | 3-3 | — | 6-8 | -17 | 1 | 1 | |
| 33 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | — | -28 | 4 | 3 | |
| 18 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-4 | — | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 96 | 34-79 | 7-30 | 21-27 | 38 | 20 | ||
| DNP: M. Smart | ||||||||
DNP: M. Smart
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 3-4 | — | 1-2 | +33 | 6 | 2 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-4 | — | +13 | 4 | 0 | |
| 30 | 28 | 12-25 | 1-4 | 3-3 | +35 | 7 | 7 | |
| 21 | 14 | 5-8 | 4-6 | — | +15 | 0 | 1 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +31 | 9 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4-5 | +15 | 6 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 12 | 4 | 2-3 | — | 0-1 | -2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 10 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | — | +2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 13 | 20 | 7-9 | 6-8 | — | +19 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-4 | — | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-5 | — | +28 | 5 | 2 | |
| 12 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-2 | — | +6 | 2 | 2 | |
| 16 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-4 | — | +25 | 3 | 1 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 139 | 55-102 | 19-42 | 10-13 | 50 | 32 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
54
20
Ast
32
Playoff series
OKC wins series 4-0
LAL90@OKC108LAL107@OKC125OKC131@LAL108OKC115@LAL110Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL+30025%OKC-38079%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
LALJ. Vanderbilt
FGame leader · 12 min
9 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 30 min
28 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
OKC beat LAL 139-96. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. OKC outscored the other side 44-21 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST
GS 37
Bench(6)
42 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 33
OKCstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST
GS 65
Bench(10)
73 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 64
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 21 | 30 | 16 | 29 | 96 |
| OKC | 44 | 38 | 30 | 27 | 139 |
Period scoring
LAL won 1 · OKC won 3
Q1
Reaves 8
Dort 14
Q2
Ayton 6
Gilgeous-Alexander 13
Q3
James 5
Joe 14
Q4
Vanderbilt 9
Williams 7
Shooting comparison
43%
34-79
FG
54%
55-102
23%
7-30
3PT
45%
19-42
78%
21-27
FT
77%
10-13
Play-by-play · 452 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·20.0
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·23.3
Maxi Kleber misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·27.2
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·27.4
Jake LaRavia misses tip shot
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·27.4
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·30.0
Jake LaRavia misses driving floating jump shot
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·42.7
Maxi Kleber offensive rebound
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·46.4
Bronny James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·55.5
Jarred Vanderbilt defensive rebound
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·58.4
Brooks Barnhizer misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·1:07
Bronny James makes 1-foot layup (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)
· ·
LAL 96·OKC 139
- Q4·1:22
Aaron Wiggins makes driving layup
LAL 94·OKC 139
- Q4·1:37
Jarred Vanderbilt makes running dunk
LAL 94·OKC 137
- Q4·1:39
Branden Carlson bad pass turnover (Jarred Vanderbilt steals)
·
LAL 92·OKC 137
- Q4·2:00
Jarred Vanderbilt makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 92·OKC 137
- Q4·2:00
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:00
Jarred Vanderbilt misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:00
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:00
Branden Carlson shooting foul
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:07
Maxi Kleber defensive rebound
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:12
Kenrich Williams misses 28-foot three point jumper
· ·
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:19
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:21
Luke Kennard misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·2:43
Aaron Wiggins makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
LAL 91·OKC 137
- Q4·3:02
Jarred Vanderbilt makes running dunk (Jake LaRavia assists)
·
LAL 91·OKC 134
- Q4·3:08
Kenrich Williams bad pass turnover (Jarred Vanderbilt steals)
· ·
LAL 89·OKC 134
- Q4·3:12
Luke Kennard bad pass turnover (Brooks Barnhizer steals)
·
LAL 89·OKC 134
- Q4·3:29
Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
· ·
LAL 89·OKC 134
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
34-79
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
55-102
43
FG %
54
7-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-42
21-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-13
20
Assists
32
18
Turnovers
10
Betting line
OKC -9.5·O/U 233.5·LAL +300/OKC -380
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GUSG%32.899
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · GTOUCHES81.896
LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.994
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAL
league avg
OKC
57.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.9%
49.9%
FG%
47.0
48.2%
114.8
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
14.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9