SA
56-18
MIL
29-44
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 127–95. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
SA -17.5 cashed (won by 32). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SA · top performer
Stephon Castle
G · #5
22
Pts
10
Reb
10
Ast
MIL · top performer
Gary Trent Jr.
G · #5
18
Pts
1
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | — | +17 | 4 | 0 | |
| 31 | 23 | 7-21 | 0-3 | 9-10 | +14 | 15 | 6 | |
| 21 | 12 | 6-9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | +22 | 2 | 6 | |
| 24 | 16 | 6-11 | 4-7 | — | +4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 29 | 22 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 2-3 | +19 | 10 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | +30 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 7 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 1-2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 16 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | +26 | 0 | 5 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | -1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 21 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +19 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 14 | 6-8 | 2-3 | — | +19 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 127 | 49-89 | 14-35 | 15-20 | 41 | 35 | ||
| DNP: B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee | ||||||||
DNP: B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | -22 | 5 | 3 | |
| 36 | 12 | 5-14 | 1-4 | 1-1 | -16 | 6 | 5 | |
| 28 | 15 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 1-2 | -28 | 6 | 1 | |
| 26 | 18 | 8-11 | 2-4 | — | -9 | 1 | 2 | |
| 25 | 12 | 5-15 | 0-7 | 2-2 | -18 | 1 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-6 | — | -29 | 3 | 2 | |
| 22 | 10 | 5-7 | — | — | -5 | 10 | 2 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 7 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 1-1 | -18 | 3 | 3 | |
| 14 | 11 | 4-9 | 3-7 | — | -16 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 95 | 38-87 | 14-46 | 5-6 | 37 | 22 | ||
| DNP: B. Portis | ||||||||
DNP: B. Portis
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
55
FG %
44
35
Ast
22
Season series
SA wins series 2-0
MIL101@SA119SA127@MIL95todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -17.5
Between 10 and —
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SA-180095%MIL+10009%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
17.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
SAS. Castle
GGame leader · 29 minTriple-double
22 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST
MILG. Trent Jr.
GGame leader · 26 min
18 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
SA beat MIL 127-95. S. Castle stuffed the line with 22 PTS, 10 REB, and 10 AST. SA outscored the other side 37-24 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs SA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSAstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 35 REB · 23 AST
GS 82
Bench(8)
43 PTS · 6 REB · 12 AST
GS 41
MILstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST
GS 45
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST
GS 21
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 37 | 30 | 35 | 25 | 127 |
| MIL | 24 | 21 | 34 | 16 | 95 |
Period scoring
SA won 4 · MIL won 0
Q1
Castle 11
Rollins 6
Q2
Champagnie 5
Jr. 9
Q3
Wembanyama 9
Turner 10
Q4
Wembanyama 7
Jr. 5
Shooting comparison
55%
49-89
FG
44%
38-87
40%
14-35
3PT
30%
14-46
75%
15-20
FT
83%
5-6
Play-by-play · 429 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 127·MIL 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 127·MIL 95
- Q4·19.7
Andre Jackson Jr. bad pass turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
SA 127·MIL 95
- Q4·23.4
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
SA 127·MIL 95
- Q4·27.4
Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 127·MIL 95
- Q4·42.3
Jericho Sims makes two point shot (AJ Green assists)
·
SA 127·MIL 95
- Q4·57.8
Luke Kornet makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Carter Bryant assists)
· ·
SA 127·MIL 93
- Q4·1:13
Taurean Prince makes driving layup
SA 125·MIL 93
- Q4·1:18
Jordan McLaughlin makes running layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
SA 125·MIL 91
- Q4·1:20
Jericho Sims lost ball turnover (Jordan McLaughlin steals)
·
SA 123·MIL 91
- Q4·1:36
Jordan McLaughlin bad pass turnover (Cormac Ryan steals)
·
SA 123·MIL 91
- Q4·1:54
Jericho Sims makes 2-foot dunk
SA 123·MIL 91
- Q4·1:54
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
SA 123·MIL 89
- Q4·1:56
Taurean Prince misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 123·MIL 89
- Q4·2:12
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 123·MIL 89
- Q4·2:12
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:12
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:12
Cormac Ryan personal foul
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:13
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:18
Cormac Ryan misses 16-foot jumper
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:20
Cormac Ryan offensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:24
AJ Green misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·2:47
Luke Kornet 3 second turnover
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·3:09
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 122·MIL 89
- Q4·3:15
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 86
- Q4·3:20
Lindy Waters III misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 122·MIL 86
- Q4·3:36
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Taurean Prince assists)
·
SA 122·MIL 86
- Q4·3:52
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 84
- Q4·3:55
Lindy Waters III misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 122·MIL 84
- Q4·4:12
Cormac Ryan out of bounds bad pass turnover
SA 122·MIL 84
Team stats
SA
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
49-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-87
55
FG %
44
14-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-46
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
5-6
35
Assists
22
11
Turnovers
18
Betting line
SA -17.5·O/U 227.5·SA -1800/MIL +1000
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Victor WembanyamaSA · FCONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.896- Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.591
Devin VassellSA · GDEFL2.583
Julian ChampagnieSA · FTS%60.972
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · SA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs SA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.2± 4.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL25.0± 4.5high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
Rebounds
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL9.9± 4.4high
- Victor WembanyamaSA9.9± 3.2high
- Jericho SimsMIL7.5± 4.7high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- De'Aaron FoxSA6.1± 1.3high
- Stephon CastleSA6.1± 1.7high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA3.0± 1.1high
- Myles TurnerMIL1.8± 1.6high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA1.4± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
SA
league avg
MIL
55.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
118.2
PPG
114.9
110.6
27.3
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
12.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5