NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+32SA

56-18

12795

MIL

29-44

NBASat, Mar 28FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -17.5

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Gary Trent Jr.

G · #5

14.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ MIL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	23	11	4-8	3-7	—	+17	4	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	23	7-21	0-3	9-10	+14	15	6
D. FoxG · #4	21	12	6-9	0-3	0-1	+22	2	6
D. VassellG · #24	24	16	6-11	4-7	—	+4	4	1
S. CastleG · #5	29	22	9-13	2-4	2-3	+19	10	10
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	18	3	1-3	1-3	—	+30	1	1
K. OlynykF · #8	5	1	—	—	1-2	-3	2	2
L. Waters IIIF · #43	7	1	0-3	0-3	1-2	-3	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	23	16	6-8	2-2	2-2	+26	0	5
C. BryantF · #11	11	4	2-2	—	—	-1	1	2
L. KornetC · #7	21	2	1-2	—	—	+19	1	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	5	2	1-1	—	—	-3	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	21	14	6-8	2-3	—	+19	1	2
Team		127	49-89	14-35	15-20		41	35
DNP: B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. NanceF · #35	30	5	2-3	1-2	—	-22	5	3
O. DiengF · #21	36	12	5-14	1-4	1-1	-16	6	5
M. TurnerC · #3	28	15	5-12	4-9	1-2	-28	6	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	26	18	8-11	2-4	—	-9	1	2
R. RollinsG · #13	25	12	5-15	0-7	2-2	-18	1	4
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	26	5	2-8	1-6	—	-29	3	2
J. SimsC · #00	22	10	5-7	—	—	-5	10	2
C. RyanG · #30	7	0	0-2	0-1	—	+1	1	0
A. GreenG · #20	27	7	2-6	2-6	1-1	-18	3	3
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	14	11	4-9	3-7	—	-16	1	0
Team		95	38-87	14-46	5-6		37	22
DNP: B. Portis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

49-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-87

FG %

14-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-46

15-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

5-6

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Jan 16

MIL101@

SA119

Mar 28

SA127@

MIL95today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -17.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-180095%

MIL+10009%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -17.5↗SpreadBet SA -17.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

17.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat MIL 127-95. S. Castle stuffed the line with 22 PTS, 10 REB, and 10 AST. SA outscored the other side 37-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 35 REB · 23 AST

GS 82

Bench(8)

43 PTS · 6 REB · 12 AST

GS 41

MILstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	37	30	35	25	127
MIL	24	21	34	16	95

Period scoring

SA won 4 · MIL won 0

Castle 11

Rollins 6

Champagnie 5

Jr. 9

Wembanyama 9

Turner 10

Wembanyama 7

Jr. 5

MIL

Shooting comparison

MIL

55%

49-89

44%

38-87

40%

14-35

3PT

30%

14-46

75%

15-20

83%

5-6

Play-by-play · 429 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 127·MIL 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 127·MIL 95
Q4·19.7
Andre Jackson Jr. bad pass turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
SA 127·MIL 95
Q4·23.4
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
SA 127·MIL 95
Q4·27.4
Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 127·MIL 95
Q4·42.3
Jericho Sims makes two point shot (AJ Green assists)
·
SA 127·MIL 95
Q4·57.8
Luke Kornet makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Carter Bryant assists)
· ·
SA 127·MIL 93
Q4·1:13
Taurean Prince makes driving layup
SA 125·MIL 93
Q4·1:18
Jordan McLaughlin makes running layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
SA 125·MIL 91
Q4·1:20
Jericho Sims lost ball turnover (Jordan McLaughlin steals)
·
SA 123·MIL 91
Q4·1:36
Jordan McLaughlin bad pass turnover (Cormac Ryan steals)
·
SA 123·MIL 91
Q4·1:54
Jericho Sims makes 2-foot dunk
SA 123·MIL 91
Q4·1:54
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
SA 123·MIL 89
Q4·1:56
Taurean Prince misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 123·MIL 89
Q4·2:12
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 123·MIL 89
Q4·2:12
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:12
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:12
Cormac Ryan personal foul
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:13
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:18
Cormac Ryan misses 16-foot jumper
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:20
Cormac Ryan offensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:24
AJ Green misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·2:47
Luke Kornet 3 second turnover
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·3:09
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 122·MIL 89
Q4·3:15
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 86
Q4·3:20
Lindy Waters III misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 122·MIL 86
Q4·3:36
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Taurean Prince assists)
·
SA 122·MIL 86
Q4·3:52
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
SA 122·MIL 84
Q4·3:55
Lindy Waters III misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 122·MIL 84
Q4·4:12
Cormac Ryan out of bounds bad pass turnover
SA 122·MIL 84

Betting line

SA -17.5·O/U 227.5·SA -1800/MIL +1000

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 127–95. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -17.5 cashed (won by 32). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Cormac RyanMIL · G
TS%69.298
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
17.3± 8.6high

Rebounds

Jericho SimsMIL
7.5± 4.7high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Caris LeVertMIL
0.6± 0.7high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
0.6± 0.7high
Julian ChampagnieSA
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

San Antonio SpursMilwaukee Bucks

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR