PHI
41-33
CHA
39-35
PHI · top performer
Tyrese Maxey
G · #0
26
Pts
7
Reb
8
Ast
CHA · top performer
Brandon Miller
F · #24
29
Pts
8
Reb
0
Ast
Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 1:08
NBA · Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 26 | 9-19 | 4-11 | 4-5 | -5 | 13 | 2 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | -16 | 2 | 0 | |
| 36 | 29 | 8-19 | 3-6 | 10-13 | +5 | 6 | 2 | |
| 43 | 26 | 10-18 | 3-6 | 3-4 | +13 | 7 | 8 | |
| 31 | 13 | 5-11 | 3-4 | — | +3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +13 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-3 | -1 | 5 | 0 | |
| 29 | 8 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +13 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 118 | 40-82 | 16-34 | 22-29 | 41 | 19 | ||
| DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, K. Lowry | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -16 | 6 | 1 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-7 | — | 2-3 | -7 | 11 | 2 | |
| 34 | 29 | 8-17 | 5-11 | 8-10 | +8 | 8 | 0 | |
| 37 | 20 | 7-26 | 5-18 | 1-1 | -7 | 3 | 8 | |
| 36 | 11 | 3-14 | 3-10 | 2-2 | -4 | 11 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 25 | 9 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 3-6 | +5 | 8 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-2 | +10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 19 | 16 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | -14 | 4 | 2 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 6 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 114 | 36-96 | 17-55 | 25-32 | 53 | 18 | ||
| DNP: X. Tillman, P. Connaughton, T. Mann | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
38
19
Ast
18
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
CHA
Home
40-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-96
49
FG %
38
16-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-55
22-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-32
19
Assists
18
9
Turnovers
9
Season series
PHI wins series 2-1
CHA121@PHI125PHI93@CHA130PHI118@CHA114todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHA -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
231.5
Standard · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+20533%CHA-25071%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 20 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
231.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
PHI beat CHA 118-114. T. Maxey paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. CHA outscored the other side 36-25 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHA vs PHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHIstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
97 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST
GS 77
Bench(6)
21 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
CHAstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 39 REB · 13 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactQuentin Grimes · vs. Grant Williams (Kon Knueppel gains possession)
Joel Embiid · makes free throw 1 of 2
Paul George · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 25 | 39 | 28 | 26 | 118 |
| CHA | 36 | 33 | 28 | 17 | 114 |
Period scoring
PHI won 2 · CHA won 1
Q1
Embiid 14
Miller 34
Q2
Maxey 16
Ball 7
Q3
George 8
Miller 9
Q4
Maxey 7
Ball 9
Shooting comparison
49%
40-82
FG
38%
36-96
47%
16-34
3PT
31%
17-55
76%
22-29
FT
78%
25-32
Play-by-play · 513 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 118·CHA 114
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 118·CHA 114
- Q4·0.0
Hornets offensive team rebound
PHI 118·CHA 114
- Q4·0.0
LaMelo Ball misses heave jump shot
PHI 118·CHA 114
−1pp
- Q4·1.5
Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 118·CHA 114
- Q4·1.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·1.5
Moussa Diabate enters the game for Sion James
·
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·1.5
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·1.5
Paul George misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·1.5
Grant Williams personal take foul
PHI 117·CHA 114
−0.7pp
- Q4·1.5
Paul George defensive rebound
PHI 117·CHA 114
−3pp
- Q4·4.3
LaMelo Ball misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHI 117·CHA 114
−8pp
- Q4·7.4
Sion James enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·7.4
Grant Williams enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·7.4
Hornets Full timeout
PHI 117·CHA 114
- Q4·7.4
Hornets offensive team rebound
PHI 117·CHA 114
+5pp
- Q4·7.4
Joel Embiid blocks Brandon Miller 's 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
PHI 117·CHA 114
−12pp
- Q4·17.1
Hornets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHI 117·CHA 114
+7pp
- Q4·19.3
LaMelo Ball misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 117·CHA 114
−11pp
- Q4·31.1
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 117·CHA 114
+1pp
- Q4·31.1
Moussa Diabate enters the game for Grant Williams
·
PHI 116·CHA 114
- Q4·31.1
76ers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHI 116·CHA 114
+7pp
- Q4·31.1
Tyrese Maxey misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 116·CHA 114
+4pp
- Q4·31.1
LaMelo Ball shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 116·CHA 114
−14pp
- Q4·48.0
LaMelo Ball bad pass turnover (Paul George steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 116·CHA 114
−14pp
- Q4·1:04
Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 116·CHA 114
−18pp
- Q4·1:06
76ers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHI 113·CHA 114
−11pp
- Q4·1:08
Joel Embiid misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHI 113·CHA 114
+17pp
- Q4·1:08
Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHI 113·CHA 114
−26pp
- Q4·1:08
(01:08) [Hornets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Hornets] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHI 112·CHA 114
+11pp
Betting line
CHA -6.5·O/U 231.5·PHI +205/CHA -250
Recap · NBA
hiladelphia 76ers went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 118–114. Decided by 4.
PHI +6.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · CTS%76.299+- Tyrese MaxeyPHI · GTOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · CUSG%34.399
LaMelo BallMIN · GUSG%31.397
Coby WhiteCHA · GUSG%29.195
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CHA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHA vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Jaylen BrownPHI26.6± 6.3high
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Moussa DiabateCHA8.8± 2.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
- Naz ReidCHA7.1± 1.4high
Assists
- LeBron JamesPHI7.2± 2.6high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI4.6± 2.6high
Blocks
- Ryan KalkbrennerCHA1.3± 1.3high
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Adem BonaPHI1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- LeBron JamesPHI1.3± 1.2high
- Rayan RupertPHI1.3± 1.3high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI1.2± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands