NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10ATL

SAC

19-56

113123

ATL

42-33

NBASat, Mar 28FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-0VegasATL -13.5

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Sacramento Kings, 123–113.

SAC +13.5 cashed (ATL won by 10). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

17.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

29.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	20	16	8-11	0-1	—	-1	6	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	30	18	5-8	2-2	6-8	-21	10	0
D. DeRozanG · #10	30	22	9-18	1-2	3-3	-7	4	3
M. MonkG · #0	27	10	5-11	0-3	—	-14	2	7
D. CarterG · #22	18	2	1-4	0-2	—	0	2	1
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	19	3	1-4	—	1-1	-6	7	4
D. JeffriesG · #25	27	15	6-9	2-3	1-1	+8	3	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	28	14	5-9	4-8	—	-6	3	0
K. HayesG · #3	17	10	4-8	2-5	—	+7	1	4
N. CliffordG · #5	23	3	1-11	1-6	—	-10	4	5
Team		113	45-93	12-32	11-13		42	27
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Eubanks

DNP: D. McDermott, D. Eubanks

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. JohnsonF · #1	37	26	11-21	4-11	—	+25	5	10
M. GueyeF · #18	32	10	4-8	2-3	—	+21	7	2
J. LandaleC · #31	34	19	7-11	2-3	3-5	+25	13	4
C. McCollumG · #3	30	22	9-17	2-7	2-4	+1	4	5
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	36	27	7-14	4-9	9-9	+25	5	8
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	16	4	2-6	0-3	—	-13	1	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	19	13	4-7	2-4	3-4	-11	2	0
C. KolokoC · #35	11	0	0-2	—	—	-15	0	2
G. VincentG · #4	25	2	1-3	0-1	—	-8	3	3
Team		123	45-89	16-41	17-22		40	34
DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

ATL wins series 2-0

Nov 13

ATL133@

SAC100

Mar 28

SAC113@

ATL123today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+55015%

ATL-80089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -13.5↗SpreadBet ATL -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSAC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 8:03

SAC

M. Raynaud

Game leader · 30 minDouble-double

18 PTS · 10 REB · 0 AST

ATL

N. Alexander-Walker

Game leader · 36 min

27 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST

How it ended

ATL beat SAC 123-113. N. Alexander-Walker paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. ATL outscored the other side 39-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 33

ATLstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

104 PTS · 34 REB · 29 AST

GS 99

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC4th Quarter · 8:03 · 97-97

+8pp→ 31% WP

Daeqwon Plowden · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 7:36 · 97-97

+6pp→ 68% WP

Daeqwon Plowden · traveling turnover

ATL4th Quarter · 6:52 · 97-102

+8pp→ 86% WP

Jalen Johnson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	30	24	28	31	113
ATL	27	39	22	35	123

Period scoring

SAC won 2 · ATL won 2

Raynaud 7

Johnson 9

DeRozan 9

Alexander-Walker 14

DeRozan 6

McCollum 8

Plowden 9

Johnson 11

SAC

ATL

Shooting comparison

SAC

ATL

48%

45-93

51%

45-89

38%

12-32

3PT

39%

16-41

85%

11-13

77%

17-22

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 113·ATL 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 113·ATL 123
Q4·13.0
DaQuan Jeffries makes driving dunk (Malik Monk assists)
·
SAC 113·ATL 123
Q4·26.7
Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)
·
SAC 111·ATL 123
Q4·36.0
Jock Landale defensive rebound
SAC 111·ATL 120
Q4·37.7
Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 2 of 2
SAC 111·ATL 120
+1pp
Q4·37.7
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 111·ATL 120
Q4·37.7
Mouhamed Gueye shooting foul
SAC 110·ATL 120
−0.7pp
Q4·48.1
DeMar DeRozan offensive rebound
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·53.7
Malik Monk misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·55.3
Maxime Raynaud offensive rebound
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·58.1
DaQuan Jeffries misses driving layup
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·1:06
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·1:10
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·1:29
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 110·ATL 120
Q4·1:29
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 109·ATL 120
Q4·1:29
Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 109·ATL 120
Q4·1:29
Jock Landale shooting foul
SAC 109·ATL 120
−0.8pp
Q4·1:37
CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)
·
SAC 109·ATL 120
+1pp
Q4·1:58
Jock Landale defensive rebound
SAC 109·ATL 117
Q4·2:02
Jock Landale blocks DeMar DeRozan's driving layup
·
SAC 109·ATL 117
Q4·2:11
CJ McCollum lost ball turnover (Malik Monk steals)
·
SAC 109·ATL 117
−4pp
Q4·2:26
CJ McCollum enters the game for Gabe Vincent
·
SAC 109·ATL 117
Q4·2:26
Hawks Full timeout
SAC 109·ATL 117
Q4·2:26
Daeqwon Plowden makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
SAC 109·ATL 117
−1pp
Q4·2:36
Malik Monk defensive rebound
SAC 106·ATL 117
Q4·2:36
Mouhamed Gueye misses tip shot
SAC 106·ATL 117
Q4·2:36
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
SAC 106·ATL 117
Q4·2:41
Jock Landale misses 23-foot three point jumper
SAC 106·ATL 117
Q4·3:00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
SAC 106·ATL 117

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

45-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-89

FG %

12-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-41

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -13.5·O/U 234.5·SAC +550/ATL -800

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 6 players in cohort

Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.395
CJ McCollumATL · G
DRIVES10.288
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL · G
USG%23.582
Corey KispertATL · F
TS%60.973

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

ATL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR