NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25PHX

UTAH

21-54

109134

PHX

41-33

NBASat, Mar 28FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-1VegasPHX -17.5

UTAH · top performer

Kyle Filipowski

F · #22

26.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ PHX

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	29	26	10-14	2-2	4-4	-12	9	3
C. WilliamsF · #5	29	0	0-9	0-2	—	-31	2	2
B. SensabaughF · #28	33	26	11-21	2-5	2-3	-25	2	2
E. HarklessG · #16	27	4	1-6	0-3	2-2	-24	5	5
A. BaileyG · #19	34	13	5-15	1-3	2-3	-19	6	2
Bench
O. TshiebweC · #34	16	7	3-6	—	1-4	-9	7	1
S. MykhailiukG · #10	9	14	5-7	4-5	—	+13	2	1
J. KoncharG · #55	22	3	1-3	1-2	—	-24	3	5
K. ChandlerG · #0	24	11	5-9	0-1	1-1	-2	3	8
B. MbengG · #21	17	5	2-2	—	1-2	+8	3	1
Team		109	43-92	10-23	13-19		42	30
DNP: K. Love, I. Collier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	22	6	2-7	2-6	—	+15	3	2
O. IghodaroF · #11	28	13	6-6	—	1-4	+19	8	2
D. BookerG · #1	27	26	8-14	1-5	9-10	+21	3	8
C. GillespieG · #12	27	0	0-8	0-8	—	+15	3	7
J. GreenG · #4	22	31	13-22	5-11	—	+9	6	3
Bench
R. DunnF · #0	20	9	4-7	1-3	0-2	+5	8	2
R. FlemingF · #20	18	7	3-7	1-4	—	+14	6	0
K. MaluachC · #10	20	12	5-7	—	2-4	+6	9	0
G. AllenG · #8	21	19	7-16	4-11	1-1	+14	3	3
J. GoodwinG · #23	23	8	3-7	2-3	—	+13	9	1
J. BouyeaG · #17	6	0	0-1	—	—	-3	2	0
K. BreaG · #14	5	3	1-2	1-2	—	-3	0	1
Team		134	52-104	17-53	13-21		60	29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

43-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-104

FG %

10-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-53

13-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-1

Oct 28

PHX134@

UTAH138

Nov 1

UTAH96@

PHX118

Mar 29

UTAH109@

PHX134today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -17.5

Between 10 and —

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+95010%

PHX-165094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -17.5↗SpreadBet PHX -17.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

17.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat UTAH 134-109. D. Booker paced them with 26 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST. PHX outscored the other side 39-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 41

PHXstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST

GS 67

Bench(7)

58 PTS · 37 REB · 7 AST

GS 52

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	21	24	38	26	109
PHX	39	34	35	26	134

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · PHX won 2

Sensabaugh 9

Green 11

Sensabaugh 10

Green 9

Bailey 10

Maluach 26

Chandler 7

Williams 12

UTAH

PHX

Shooting comparison

UTAH

PHX

47%

43-92

50%

52-104

43%

10-23

3PT

32%

17-53

68%

13-19

62%

13-21

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 109·PHX 134
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 109·PHX 134
Q4·21.7
shot clock turnover
UTAH 109·PHX 134
Q4·46.2
Oscar Tshiebwe makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Kennedy Chandler assists)
·
UTAH 109·PHX 134
Q4·52.9
Ryan Dunn out of bounds lost ball turnover
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·52.9
Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·55.2
Brice Sensabaugh misses driving layup
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·1:03
Khaman Maluach kicked ball violation
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·1:09
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·1:12
Rasheer Fleming misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·1:36
Jamaree Bouyea defensive goaltending violation
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·1:36
Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 107·PHX 134
Q4·1:36
Koby Brea shooting foul
UTAH 106·PHX 134
Q4·1:36
Kennedy Chandler makes running layup (Oscar Tshiebwe assists)
·
UTAH 106·PHX 134
Q4·1:38
Ryan Dunn lost ball turnover (Oscar Tshiebwe steals)
·
UTAH 104·PHX 134
Q4·1:50
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
UTAH 104·PHX 134
Q4·1:52
Khaman Maluach misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 104·PHX 134
Q4·1:52
Khaman Maluach makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 104·PHX 134
Q4·1:52
Oscar Tshiebwe shooting foul
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·1:52
Khaman Maluach offensive rebound
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·1:54
Rasheer Fleming misses 13-foot two point shot
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·2:13
Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·2:15
Rasheer Fleming blocks Kennedy Chandler 's 19-foot step back jumpshot
·
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·2:28
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·2:30
Koby Brea misses 28-foot three point jumper
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·2:44
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 104·PHX 133
Q4·2:44
Rasheer Fleming shooting foul
UTAH 103·PHX 133
Q4·2:44
Brice Sensabaugh makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Elijah Harkless assists)
·
UTAH 103·PHX 133
Q4·2:51
Oscar Tshiebwe defensive rebound
UTAH 101·PHX 133
Q4·2:53
Ryan Dunn misses 12-foot two point shot
UTAH 101·PHX 133

Betting line

PHX -17.5·O/U 232.5·UTAH +950/PHX -1650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Utah Jazz, 134–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHX -17.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
John KoncharUTAH · G
DEFL2.891
Elijah HarklessDET · G
DEFL2.688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high
John KoncharUTAH
6.6± 3.4high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

PHX

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Team pages

Utah JazzPhoenix Suns

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR