CHI
29-45
MEM
25-49
Recap · NBA
emphis Grizzlies held off Chicago Bulls, 125–124. It came down to the final possession.
MEM +5.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total cleared the 247.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Josh Giddey
G · #3
18
Pts
13
Reb
10
Ast
MEM · top performer
Cedric Coward
F · #23
24
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | -6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 39 | 29 | 10-21 | 3-10 | 6-7 | +14 | 10 | 3 | |
| 16 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 29 | 19 | 8-15 | 1-4 | 2-4 | +3 | 9 | 6 | |
| 35 | 18 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 5-5 | -15 | 13 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-3 | — | +5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 22 | 8 | 2-2 | — | 4-8 | -4 | 7 | 2 | |
| 30 | 26 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 11-13 | +4 | 1 | 2 | |
| 15 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | -5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 124 | 41-82 | 10-33 | 32-43 | 53 | 26 | ||
| DNP: G. Yabusele, N. Richards, A. Simons | ||||||||
DNP: G. Yabusele, N. Richards, A. Simons
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 15 | 12 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | +4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 24 | 24 | 10-19 | 2-6 | 2-3 | +13 | 9 | 4 | |
| 21 | 10 | 3-14 | 0-4 | 4-4 | +18 | 4 | 3 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-3 | — | +4 | 2 | 4 | |
| 30 | 14 | 6-10 | 2-3 | — | +6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 18 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 1-3 | -16 | 5 | 3 | |
| 19 | 14 | 5-7 | — | 4-5 | -19 | 2 | 3 | |
| 30 | 17 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 1-1 | +1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-5 | — | -7 | 2 | 3 | |
| 30 | 7 | 3-9 | 1-6 | — | +1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Team | 125 | 50-107 | 12-38 | 13-17 | 37 | 31 | ||
| DNP: J. Wells, C. Spencer | ||||||||
DNP: J. Wells, C. Spencer
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
47
26
Ast
31
Season series
Series tied 1-1
MEM107@CHI132CHI124@MEM125todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHI -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
247.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CHI-20567%MEM+17037%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
247.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 15.8
CHIJ. Giddey
GGame leader · 35 minTriple-double
18 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
MEMC. Coward
FGame leader · 24 min
24 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MEM beat CHI 125-124. C. Coward led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. MEM outscored the other side 42-30 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MEM vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 40 REB · 20 AST
GS 69
Bench(4)
46 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 33
MEMstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST
GS 54
Bench(5)
59 PTS · 14 REB · 17 AST
GS 44
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWalter Clayton Jr. · misses two point shot
Adama Bal · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)
Walter Clayton Jr. · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 30 | 28 | 30 | 36 | 124 |
| MEM | 28 | 28 | 42 | 27 | 125 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · MEM won 1
Q1
Sexton 11
Jarreau 10
Q2
Buzelis 8
Coward 9
Q3
Buzelis 10
Rupert 12
Q4
Jones 9
Coward 6
Shooting comparison
50%
41-82
FG
47%
50-107
30%
10-33
3PT
32%
12-38
74%
32-43
FT
76%
13-17
Play-by-play · 551 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 124·MEM 125
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 124·MEM 125
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
CHI 124·MEM 125
+10pp
- Q4·2.2
Cedric Coward bad pass turnover (Tre Jones steals)
·
CHI 124·MEM 125
+1pp
- Q4·4.0
Grizzlies Full timeout
CHI 124·MEM 125
- Q4·4.0
Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 124·MEM 125
+5pp
- Q4·4.0
Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 123·MEM 125
−2pp
- Q4·4.0
GG Jackson enters the game for Rayan Rupert
·
CHI 122·MEM 125
- Q4·4.0
Rayan Rupert personal take foul
CHI 122·MEM 125
−5pp
- Q4·6.5
Cedric Coward makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 122·MEM 125
−4pp
- Q4·6.5
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 122·MEM 124
+1pp
- Q4·6.5
Collin Sexton personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 122·MEM 123
+15pp
- Q4·7.9
Josh Giddey makes driving dunk (Tre Jones assists)
·
CHI 122·MEM 123
−4pp
- Q4·15.2
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 120·MEM 123
- Q4·15.8
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 120·MEM 123
+27pp
- Q4·32.8
Tre Jones makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 120·MEM 120
−10pp
- Q4·43.7
Cedric Coward offensive foul turnover
CHI 118·MEM 120
- Q4·43.7
Cedric Coward offensive foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 118·MEM 120
−10pp
- Q4·1:01
Tre Jones makes 3-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 118·MEM 120
−7pp
- Q4·1:04
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 116·MEM 120
- Q4·1:04
Jahmai Mashack makes running layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 116·MEM 120
+7pp
- Q4·1:07
Josh Giddey lost ball turnover (Walter Clayton Jr. steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHI 116·MEM 118
+12pp
- Q4·1:27
Cedric Coward makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MEM 118
+9pp
- Q4·1:49
Josh Giddey makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MEM 116
−8pp
- Q4·1:56
Adama Bal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 114·MEM 116
+17pp
- Q4·2:15
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
CHI 114·MEM 113
+2pp
- Q4·2:17
Matas Buzelis misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 114·MEM 113
+7pp
- Q4·2:26
Bulls offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 114·MEM 113
−7pp
- Q4·2:28
Collin Sexton misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 114·MEM 113
+7pp
- Q4·2:36
Isaac Okoro defensive rebound
CHI 114·MEM 113
−2pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
MEM
Home
41-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
50-107
50
FG %
47
10-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-38
32-43
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-17
26
Assists
31
23
Turnovers
14
Betting line
CHI -5.5·O/U 247.5·CHI -205/MEM +170
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MEM vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Ja MorantMEM19.6± 8.8high
- Ty JeromeMEM18.9± 4.2medium
- Collin SextonCHI17.9± 4.5high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Josh GiddeyCHI8.1± 4.3high
- Nick RichardsCHI6.7± 2.5high
Assists
- Josh GiddeyCHI9.9± 4.4high
- Ja MorantMEM8.1± 3.9high
- Cam SpencerMEM5.8± 2.9high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Matas BuzelisCHI1.5± 1.4high
- Jalen SmithCHI0.9± 1.0high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Collin SextonCHI1.6± 1.3high
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CHI
league avg
MEM
54.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
46.9%
FG%
47.0
45.6%
116.3
PPG
114.9
114.7
28.5
Assists / G
25.0
27.8
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.6