DET
54-20
MIN
45-29
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 109–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET -2.5 cashed (won by 22). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 25.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer
Tobias Harris
F · #12
18
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
MIN · top performer
Donte DiVincenzo
G · #0
22
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 18 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | +10 | 4 | 4 | |
| 24 | 10 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | +12 | 2 | 2 | |
| 29 | 10 | 4-7 | — | 2-2 | +8 | 13 | 5 | |
| 24 | 6 | 3-6 | — | — | +10 | 6 | 0 | |
| 28 | 13 | 6-16 | 1-4 | — | +3 | 8 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 12 | 4-7 | — | 4-4 | +13 | 7 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 13 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | +12 | 2 | 0 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | +7 | 5 | 1 | |
| 20 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-2 | — | +13 | 2 | 4 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-4 | — | +9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 11 | 0 | — | — | — | +11 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 109 | 43-82 | 10-26 | 13-17 | 52 | 28 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 11 | 2-13 | 0-3 | 7-7 | -13 | 8 | 4 | |
| 32 | 14 | 6-9 | — | 2-4 | -11 | 12 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | — | -8 | 1 | 6 | |
| 33 | 22 | 7-18 | 5-14 | 3-4 | -8 | 3 | 2 | |
| 25 | 8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-4 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3-15 | 0-7 | 2-3 | -22 | 4 | 1 | |
| 18 | 9 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 5-6 | -16 | 4 | 0 | |
| 26 | 6 | 2-10 | 2-9 | — | -17 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 87 | 27-85 | 9-43 | 24-33 | 38 | 18 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
32
28
Ast
18
Season series
DET leads series 1-0
DET109@MIN87todayMIN108@DET113Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET-13057%MIN+11048%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:59
DETT. Harris
FGame leader · 28 min
18 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
MIND. DiVincenzo
GGame leader · 33 min
22 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
DET beat MIN 109-87. T. Harris led with 18 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. DET outscored the other side 33-24 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST
GS 50
Bench(8)
52 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 46
MINstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 43
Bench(7)
29 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRudy Gobert · bad pass turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
Julius Randle · bad pass turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
Mike Conley · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 33 | 16 | 25 | 35 | 109 |
| MIN | 24 | 20 | 16 | 27 | 87 |
Period scoring
DET won 3 · MIN won 1
Q1
Harris 11
Reed 7
Q2
Duren 4
DiVincenzo 11
Q3
Thompson 6
DiVincenzo 6
Q4
Jenkins 9
Clark 6
Shooting comparison
52%
43-82
FG
32%
27-85
38%
10-26
3PT
21%
9-43
76%
13-17
FT
73%
24-33
Play-by-play · 480 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·17.3
shot clock turnover
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·40.2
Javonte Green defensive rebound
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·41.7
Joan Beringer misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·41.7
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·41.7
Joan Beringer misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·41.7
Tolu Smith shooting foul
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·50.7
Chaz Lanier makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
DET 109·MIN 87
- Q4·1:12
Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 107·MIN 87
- Q4·1:12
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 107·MIN 86
- Q4·1:12
Tolu Smith shooting foul
DET 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:14
Ronald Holland II bad pass turnover (Joan Beringer steals)
·
DET 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:29
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:29
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 107·MIN 84
- Q4·1:29
Marcus Sasser shooting foul
DET 107·MIN 83
- Q4·1:47
Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
DET 107·MIN 83
- Q4·2:01
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 104·MIN 83
- Q4·2:01
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 104·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Tolu Smith enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 104·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 104·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 104·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 104·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 104·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Daniss Jenkins personal take foul
DET 104·MIN 81
- Q4·2:07
Daniss Jenkins makes 10-foot jumper (Jalen Duren assists)
·
DET 104·MIN 81
- Q4·2:19
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 102·MIN 81
- Q4·2:22
Julian Phillips misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 102·MIN 81
- Q4·2:36
Daniss Jenkins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)
·
DET 102·MIN 81
- Q4·2:52
Joan Beringer makes driving layup
DET 99·MIN 81
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
43-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-85
52
FG %
32
10-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-43
13-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-33
28
Assists
18
19
Turnovers
14
Betting line
DET -2.5·O/U 221.5·DET -130/MIN +110
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.091
Julius RandleMIN · FDRIVES1290
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- Julius RandleMIN17.3± 6.4high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Julius RandleMIN7.2± 2.1high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
- Ausar ThompsonDET3.5± 2.1high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Cade CunninghamDET1.4± 1.2high
- Tobias HarrisDET1.3± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
MIN
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
47.6%
115.9
PPG
114.9
116.8
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.0