Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at SF?

The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+1LAA

LAA

42-64

44-61

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

34,111 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

SF no-vig %

51.7%

open 52.2% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.97

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

51.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at SF?: The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.0pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

LAA

no live price

★ best

+230DraftKings

edge +33.0pp · implied 28.5%

Book	LAA	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	-318	+230★	+33.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

109

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Walbert UrenaLAA
5.1± 1.5high
Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.2± 0.9high
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.4± 2.8high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.2± 3.6low
Rafael DeversSF
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.2± 2.2low
Jung Hoo LeeSF
0.8± 1.4high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.3± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

.695

OPS

.720

▶

.724

.313

OBP

.318

.310

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

4.20

4.49

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.36

1.37

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.35

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 4 · SF 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4
SF	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.247	4	1	4	0	0	0	0
V. Grissom2B	.251	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. SolerDH	.202	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.280	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. AdellRF	.243	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
D. Guzman3B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SiriCF	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
O. Peraza2B	.239	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	7	4	2	3	9

Player

.234

.247

.251

.202

.280

.243

.240

.270

.213

.239

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SorianoSP	5.0	3	1	0	3	5	85
S. Natera Jr.RP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
C. SilsethRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	10
S. BachmanRP	0.1	0	2	2	2	0	18
M. FarrisRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	6	3	2	6	10	155

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

155

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.327	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
H. RamosLF	.262	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
B. EldridgeDH	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Devers1B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. SchmittLF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. GilbertCF	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AdamesSS	.225	4	2	1	0	0	0	1
D. CavanaughC	.262	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
G. McCrayCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodríguezC	.234	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. SusacC	.248	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	2	0	6	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. WhisenhuntSP	5.0	5	4	4	2	7	78
A. HouserSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	2	53
Team	9.0	7	4	4	3	9	131

Team

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.