Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+3HOU

MIA

52-49

HOU

48-54

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

23,684 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

HOU no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.1% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.8%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.5pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+850DraftKings

edge +27.5pp · implied 16.0%

HOU

no live price

Book	MIA	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	+850★	-123	+27.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.8± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.3± 2.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 2.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.0high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.3± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

HOU

.732

OPS

.719

.739

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.321

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.67

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.65

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.38

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

MIA 5 · HOU 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	5
HOU	0	6	0	0	1	0	1	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Stowers1B	.230	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
H. HernandezLF	.236	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
X. Edwards2B	.296	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
L. HicksC	.288	5	1	2	2	1	0	2
G. ConineRF	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.194	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. MackC	.242	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.172	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.272	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.214	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	9	5	2	4	14

Player

.230

.236

.296

.288

.275

.194

.242

.172

.272

.214

.245

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	4.0	5	6	6	3	3	80
L. BacharRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
D. FultonRP	3.0	2	1	1	2	4	45
Team	8.0	8	8	8	5	8	139

Player

J. JunkSP

4.0

L. BacharRP

1.0

D. FultonRP

3.0

Team

8.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.294	4	1	1	4	1	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.324	4	2	3	2	2	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.257	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Altuve2B	.235	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. Wade Jr.LF	.195	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
Y. DiazC	.242	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.229	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
Z. DezenzoUN	.231	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. SpenceCF	.214	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. AllenSS	.239	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.210	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	8	8	8	3	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. BlancoSP	4.2	2	4	4	3	8	86
E. De Los SantosRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22
S. OkertRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	28
J. HaderRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	16
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	14	171

Team

MIA

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.