Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Athletics vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+8CHW

ATH

41-55

CHW

50-45

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

27,175 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

CHW no-vig %

58.3%

open 51.7% · +6.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
66.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.3%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-118

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.5pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

CHW

★ best

-156DraftKings

edge +7.5pp · implied 58.3%

Book	ATH	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	+129	-156★	+7.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Jack PerkinsATH
4.7± 2.2high

Hits

Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Tommy WhiteATH
1.1± 1.7medium
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.1high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 0.8high
Jonah HeimATH
0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.0± 1.6high
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

CHW

.722

OPS

.719

.724

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.35

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.78

5.42

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.00

1.50

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

ATH 1 · CHW 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CHW	6	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Kuroda-Grauer3B	.422	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. LangeliersC	.257	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. HeimC	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.204	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Meneses1B	.150	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. BolteCF	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ServenC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.279	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	6	1	1	0	8

Player

.281

.422

.257

.232

.204

.150

.196

.261

.262

.250

.279

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	4.1	6	8	8	3	7	86
J. SuarezRP	1.2	2	1	0	0	1	24
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
J. SternerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
Team	8.0	9	9	8	3	9	127

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.287	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Murakami1B	.232	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
M. Vargas3B	.245	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.242	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
K. TeelC	.204	4	2	2	2	0	0	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.231	4	1	2	4	1	0	0
T. PetersCF	.301	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		33	9	9	8	2	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. SchultzSP	5.0	4	1	1	0	4	74
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
T. SchweitzerRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	0	27
Team	9.0	6	1	1	0	8	130

Team

ATH

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.