Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 2, 2026

FINAL+2MIA

MIA

58-55

NYM

47-66

Citi Field · Queens, New York

32,109 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

NYM no-vig %

47.9%

open 47.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.5pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+103DraftKings

edge +8.5pp · implied 46.2%

NYM

no live price

Book	MIA	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	+103★	-134	+8.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
2.3± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.684

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.99

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.09

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 2 · NYM 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.282	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Stowers1B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. LopezSS	.321	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.287	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. ConineRF	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. CaissieRF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MackC	.245	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.264	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.260	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MarseeCF	.197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	1	1	7

Player

.282

.234

.321

.287

.270

.235

.245

.264

.260

.197

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	6.0	4	0	0	2	5	102
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19
T. ZuberRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21
Team	9.0	5	0	0	5	8	151

Player

S. AlcantaraSP

6.0

102

M. PetersenRP

1.0

T. ZuberRP

1.0

P. FairbanksRP

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.263	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. LindorSS	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. BengeRF	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.197	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Young1B	.249	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Semien2B	.212	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. PolancoDH	.131	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
F. AlvarezC	.255	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. TaylorLF	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. StockRP	5.0	3	1	1	0	4	70
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	24
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	1	7	125

Team

MIA

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.