MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SD

22-14

14-23

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

34,181 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SF no-vig %

48.9%

open 49.6% · -0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.8%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
45.3%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.1%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.4%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.3± 2.0low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.1± 1.3high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.6low
Willy AdamesSF
0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.652

OPS

.715

▶

.728

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.309

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.19

3.97

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.55

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 5 · SF 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	0	5
SF	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. MerrillCF	.235	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.207	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. AndujarDH	.308	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.228	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.242	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.234	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
N. CastellanosRF	.191	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.150	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.276	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. France1B	.291	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		33	5	6	5	2	4	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.235

.207

.308

.228

.242

.234

.191

.150

.333

.276

.291

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
M. WaldronSP	5.0	2	1	1	0	7	67
A. MorejonRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	4	26
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	3	1	1	0	13	113

Player

1.0

5.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

113

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. LeeRF	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittDH	.296	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Chapman3B	.234	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Devers1B	.221	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
W. AdamesSS	.194	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. EldridgeDH	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. RodríguezC	.444	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.146	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		30	1	3	1	1	0	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. HouserSP	6.0	3	2	1	1	3	74
K. WinnRP	0.2	0	1	1	1	0	16
M. GageRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10
R. WalkerRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	29
J. PegueroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	6	5	4	4	4	137

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SF vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.