San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+1SF

20-14

14-21

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

33,097 attended

Line movement

92 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

46.0%

open 42.8% · +3.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.7%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
43.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.8%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low
Michael KingSD
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Samad TaylorSD
1.4± 1.1low
Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryce EldridgeSF
2.2± 2.3high
Casey SchmittSF
2.1± 2.3high
Luis ArraezSF
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
0.7± 1.2high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.4± 3.2low
Adrian HouserSF
2.9± 2.7low
Randy VasquezSD
2.8± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.657

OPS

.719

▶

.728

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.309

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.12

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.46

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SD 2 · SF 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
SF	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LaureanoLF	.238	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. MerrillCF	.220	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
M. Machado3B	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.215	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. AndujarDH	.305	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.161	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.144	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	3	2	2	0	10

Player

.238

.252

.220

.221

.262

.215

.305

.161

.144

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	5.2	5	3	3	2	2	88
K. HartRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
B. RodriguezRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	16
W. PeraltaRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	13
Team	8.0	6	3	3	3	4	122

Player

5.2

0.1

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeeRF	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittDH	.308	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
L. Arraez2B	.316	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
H. RamosLF	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.218	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
W. AdamesSS	.197	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. EldridgeDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RodríguezC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.152	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	3	6	3	1	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. McDonaldSP	7.0	2	1	1	0	8	81
K. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
C. KilianRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	18
Team	9.0	3	2	2	0	10	107

Team

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.