MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MON, 9:45 PM EDTModelSD55%

20-13

13-21

Place your bet

-130Bet SD ML↗-130Bet SD ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

R. Vasquez

3-0 · 2.94 ERA

T. McDonald

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Randy Vasquez

SP · #98

3-0

W-L

2.94

ERA

1.16

WHIP

33.2

Last 3 starts

vsCHCW(3-0)5.0 IP5 ER4 K

@COLW(2-0)7.0 IP0 ER5 K

vsSEA-4.0 IP4 ER6 K

Home starter

Trevor McDonald

SP · #72

—

W-L

—

ERA

—

WHIP

—

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money-130 / +108

Model edge

Win prob55% / 45%

LeanAway · 5pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Place a bet

Take SD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-130Bet SD ML↗-130Bet SD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

1.R. LaureanoLF
2.F. Tatis Jr.RF
3.J. MerrillCF
4.M. Machado3B
5.X. BogaertsSS
6.G. Sheets1B
7.M. AndujarDH
8.F. FerminC
9.J. Cronenworth2B

1.J. LeeRF
2.C. Schmitt3B
3.L. Arraez2B
4.H. RamosLF
5.R. Devers1B
6.W. AdamesSS
7.B. EldridgeDH
8.J. RodriguezC
9.D. GilbertCF

Line movement

56 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF implied %

48.1%

open 44.8% · +3.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketAligned

DraftKings · snapped 18m ago

No edgemodel and market agree on

SDWin prob axisSF

Market 46%

Model 45%

0%50%100%

ModelSD 55%Pre-game prob

MarketSD 54%No-vig · 4.6% hold

Edge—Within noise

SD -130/

SF +108Pass · no value

The One modelLean

Mon, May 4

SD★

Padres

20-13

vs55%SD

Giants

13-21

SD 55%win prob45% SF

SD 1525 · SF 1466Box score→

MLBMon, May 45/4 - 9:45 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasSD -130

Preview · MLB

an Diego Padres visit San Francisco Giants Monday at 5/4 - 9:45 PM EDT.

Vegas opened SD as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.0. SF's moneyline implies a 48% break-even, SD the inverse.

For bettors: the SD side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.0 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 5 over 6.1h19m ago

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

SD · SF

20-13

R. Laureano★

OPS

0.576

H-AB

28-118

RBI

F. Tatis Jr.★

OPS

0.521

H-AB

31-119

RBI

J. Merrill★

OPS

0.496

H-AB

26-123

RBI

M. Machado★

OPS

0.596

H-AB

25-109

RBI

X. Bogaerts★

OPS

0.664

H-AB

32-119

RBI

G. Sheets★

OPS

0.578

H-AB

20-90

RBI

M. Andujar★

OPS

0.709

H-AB

25-79

RBI

F. Fermin★

OPS

0.340

H-AB

9-53

RBI

J. Cronenworth★

OPS

0.326

H-AB

14-95

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
R. Laureano★LF	28-118	18	4	0.576
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	31-119	13	0	0.521
J. Merrill★CF	26-123	15	3	0.496
M. Machado★3B	25-109	18	5	0.596
X. Bogaerts★SS	32-119	18	5	0.664
G. Sheets★1B	20-90	12	4	0.578
M. Andujar★3B	25-79	9	2	0.709
F. Fermin★C	9-53	3	0	0.340
J. Cronenworth★2B	14-95	4	1	0.326
Team	-----	--	--	—

R. Vasquez★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
R. Vasquez★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

13-21

J. Lee★

OPS

0.612

H-AB

34-121

RBI

C. Schmitt★

OPS

0.731

H-AB

32-104

RBI

L. Arraez★

OPS

0.615

H-AB

40-130

RBI

H. Ramos★

OPS

0.615

H-AB

33-122

RBI

R. Devers★

OPS

0.473

H-AB

28-131

RBI

W. Adames★

OPS

0.459

H-AB

26-133

RBI

B. Eldridge★

OPS

—

H-AB

-----

RBI

J. Rodríguez★

OPS

—

H-AB

-----

RBI

D. Gilbert★

OPS

0.667

H-AB

13-48

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Lee★RF	34-121	11	2	0.612
C. Schmitt★1B	32-104	15	4	0.731
L. Arraez★2B	40-130	11	0	0.615
H. Ramos★LF	33-122	15	3	0.615
R. Devers★1B	28-131	12	2	0.473
W. Adames★SS	26-133	6	3	0.459
B. Eldridge★1B	-----	--	--	—
J. Rodríguez★C	-----	--	--	—
D. Gilbert★CF	13-48	5	2	0.667
Team	-----	--	--	—

T. McDonald★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
T. McDonald★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Mar 31

SF3@

SD2

Apr 1

SF9@

SD3

Apr 1

SF1@

SD7

May 5

SD@

SFtoday

May 6

SD@

SFupcoming

May 6

SD@

SFupcoming

Jul 31

SF@

SDupcoming

Aug 1

SF@

SDupcoming

Aug 2

SF@

SDupcoming

Aug 2

SF@

SDupcoming

Sep 12

SD@

SFupcoming

Sep 12

SD@

SFupcoming

Sep 13

SD@

SFupcoming

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 1

SD1@

SF9

Mar 16

SF1@

SD3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SD-13057%

SF+10848%

5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

SDSP

R. Vasquez

#98 · 3-0

ERA

2.94

—

Last 3 starts

4/28vs

CHC5.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 KW(3-0)

4/22@

COL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 KW(2-0)

4/16vs

SEA4.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K-

SFSP

T. McDonald

#72 · —

ERA

—

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

SD3L · 6R

1
R. Laureano
LF
R
2
F. Tatis Jr.
RF
R
3
J. Merrill
CF
L
4
M. Machado
3B
R
5
X. Bogaerts
SS
R
6
G. Sheets
1B
L
7
M. Andujar
DH
R
8
F. Fermin
C
R
9
J. Cronenworth
2B
L

SF5L · 4R

1
J. Lee
RF
L
2
C. Schmitt
3B
R
3
L. Arraez
2B
L
4
H. Ramos
LF
R
5
R. Devers
1B
L
6
W. Adames
SS
R
7
B. Eldridge
DH
L
8
J. Rodriguez
C
R
9
D. Gilbert
CF
L

Scouting report

SD @ SF

5/4 - 9:45 PM EDT

StorylineSF lost 6 in a row.

Rest going in

SDStandard

1 day

last game May 3

SFStandard

1 day

last game May 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

SD -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SD -130

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

SDmetricSF

20-13

Record

13-21

Conf rank

#14

0.0

Pt diff

-1.0

Streak

4-6

Last 10

2-8

Bullpen used yesterday

4.0 bullpen IP · heavy

A. Morejon2.0 IP31 P
J. Adam1.0 IP17 P
M. Miller1.0 IP15 P

W 4-3 · May 3

3.7 bullpen IP · heavy

M. Gage0.2 IP15 P
K. Winn1.0 IP9 P
R. Walker1.0 IP14 P
C. Kilian1.0 IP15 P

L 2-1 · May 3

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

255

Hits

278

Errors

145

Runs

106

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8·SD -130/SF +108

DraftKings · via ESPN