MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

30-22

DET

20-31

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

25,687 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

DET no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.7% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
41.8%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.6%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.31

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

DET

.689

OPS

.715

▶

.706

.317

OBP

.319

.315

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.97

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · DET 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
D. SchneemannCF	.246	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
J. Ramirez3B	.236	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Bazzana2B	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KwanCF	.202	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.111	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.290	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	1	1	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.246

.236

.267

.185

.288

.256

.202

.111

.290

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. CantilloSP	5.2	3	0	0	3	6	98
M. FestaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	5
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	16
T. HerrinRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	10
C. HeuerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	6	1	1	4	13	154

Player

5.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

154

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. VierlingCF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
K. McGonigleSS	.286	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. DinglerC	.241	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.326	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. JonesDH	.175	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Torkelson1B	.194	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.160	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.067	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Workman3B	.179	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.279	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.193	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	6	1	1	4	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MizeSP	6.2	4	2	2	0	4	95
B. SmithRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	27
E. De JesusRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	25
Team	9.0	6	3	3	1	7	147

Team

CLE

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

DET vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

DET vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.