MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

MIL

18-15

WSH

16-19

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

17,220 attended

Line movement

93 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

WSH no-vig %

42.8%

open 44.9% · -2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.7%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.1%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Player projections

WSH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low
Cade CavalliWSH
6.0± 4.1low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high

Earned runs

Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low
Zack LittellWSH
2.7± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

WSH

.728

OPS

.715

▶

.742

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.323

5.28

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.39

3.44

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.65

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

MIL 2 · WSH 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2
WSH	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. Rengifo3B	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. ContrerasC	.298	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. SanchezDH	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.231	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
B. LockridgeLF	.280	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.208	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. HamiltonSS	.247	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OrtizSS	.181	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. PerkinsCF	.109	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
G. JonesLF	.095	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	2	4	2	0	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.186

.298

.211

.243

.231

.280

.208

.247

.181

.109

.095

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. HendersonSP	6.0	3	2	2	0	8	76
B. FitzpatrickRP	1.1	4	1	1	0	0	16
J. WoodfordRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
Team	8.0	7	3	3	1	9	104

Player

L. HendersonSP

6.0

B. FitzpatrickRP

1.1

J. WoodfordRP

0.2

Team

8.0

104

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. WoodRF	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.234	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. AbramsSS	.297	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.222	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.268	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.194	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.211	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. House3B	.229	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	7	3	0	1	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. PoulinRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	36
Z. LittellSP	3.2	1	1	1	1	1	41
M. ParkerRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	23
G. VarlandRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	9
R. LoveladyRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	2	2	2	6	121

Team

MIL

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

WSH vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.