• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    DET 1@CHW 0
    -53.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 2@WSH 4
    +49.7pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    LAA 2@TB 4
    +28.5pplow
  • MLBMid 6
    MIL 2@HOU 0
    -40.2pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SF 2@COL 0
    -35.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    ATL 3@CIN 6
    +56.0pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    BOS 7@CLE 4
    -60.4pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    MIA 1@NYM 5
    +48.1pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    KC 0@TEX 6
    +40.3pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    MIN 2@PIT 9
    +45.4pplow
  • WNBA5:30 - 1st
    LV 8@GS 7
    -2.1ppmedium
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
SF logo
SF
2
LiveTop 2nd
COL logo
COL
0
Updated 3:49 PM ET
Live read

Susac doubled to right, Eldridge scored. → win prob 69→78% SF · leverage low · next play ≈ ±3pp

TOP 2ND+2SF↑
SF

SF

22-36

2
0
COL

COL

22-37

MLB · At bat

Top 2·0-2·0 outs

Pitcher· COL

T. Gordon

1.0 IP, 2 ER

Batter· SF

D. Gilbert

0-0

LastPitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 2ndPolls every 30s

65.6%

SF wins · current

Pre-game: 60.6% SF

SF 2 · 0 COL

SF +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 2
away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingSFTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
    +9pp→ 78% WP

    Susac · doubled to right, Eldridge scored.

  • ↺Lead flipSFBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
    +6pp→ 54% WP

    Johnston · flied out to left.

  • ↑SwingSFTop 1st Inning · 1-0
    +9pp→ 62% WP

    Lee · singled to center, Devers scored, Adames to second.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.45

R. Ray

3-6 · 4.60 ERA

vs

T. Gordon

0-0 · 5.85 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

45.9%

open 46.8% · -0.9

+2.0-0.5COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.5TOTAL50.8%41.9%COL NO-VIG %May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

6.4%

-35.3ppvs pre-game · SF favored

Leverage

±3.4

pp · next play

low · 13/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
SF2

SF★

Giants

26-35

vs60.6%SF

COL

Rockies

22-43

COL0
SF 60.6%win prob39.4% COL
SF 1470 · COL 1387Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 63-41
62%Last 30 · 324-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.1pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

SF

★ best
-117DraftKings

edge +9.1pp · implied 51.5%

COL

no live price

BookSFCOLBest edge
DraftKings-117★-103+9.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.09

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Line barely moved

MLB·Sun, May 31·Top 2nd/SeriesCOL leads series 2-0/VegasSF -117
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. GordonCOL−23.8pp
  2. 2B. EldridgeSF+13.5pp
  3. 3R. DeversSF+10.3pp

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Tyler Freeman

Tyler Freeman

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 2nd
SF22-36
2
0
COL22-37
SF22-36·COL22-37
SF

SF

22-36

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-11000000
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-11110000
SPRINT25.716
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-11000000
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-00000010
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-11011000
SPRINT27.148
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-11000000
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
1-11110000
D. SusacD. Susac★C
1-11011000
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-00000000
Team4-77242010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
1.0100020
Team1.0100020
COL

COL

22-37

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-11000000
SPRINT27.969
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-11010000
SPRINT27.148
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.326
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-11000001
SPRINT27.148
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-11000001
SPRINT27.867
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-00000000
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-00000000
B. FulfordB. Fulford★C
0-00000000
C. StevensC. Stevens★2B
0-00000000
Team1-55010002
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GordonT. Gordon★RP
1.0422100
Team1.0422100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • R. Ray
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.4 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • T. Gordon
    55 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      33%·84.3 mph·56% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.6 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

1

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

COL leads series 2-0

May 30SFSF6@COLCOL8
May 31SFSF3@COLCOL8
May 31SFSF@COLCOLtoday

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

May 30SFSF6@COLCOL8
May 31SFSF3@COLCOL8
May 31SFSF@COLCOLtoday
Jul 4SFSF@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 5SFSF@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 5SFSF@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 10COLCOL@SFSFupcoming
Jul 11COLCOL@SFSFupcoming
Jul 11COLCOL@SFSFupcoming
Jul 12COLCOL@SFSFupcoming
Aug 15COLCOL@SFSFupcoming
Aug 15COLCOL@SFSFupcoming
Aug 16COLCOL@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-11754%
COLCOL-10351%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
SFSFSP
R. Ray

R. Ray

#38 · 3-6

ERA

4.60

K

53

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/24vsCHWCHW4.0 IP · 4 ER · 3 K-
5/19@ARIARI4.1 IP · 9 ER · 1 KL(3-6)
5/14@LADLAD4.2 IP · 3 ER · 2 KL(3-5)
VS
COLCOLRP
T. Gordon

T. Gordon

#29 · 0-0

ERA

5.85

K

33

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/26@LADLAD5.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K-
5/20vsTEXTEX6.1 IP · 7 ER · 5 K-
5/14@PITPIT4.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
SFSF5L · 4R
  1. 1

    C. Schmitt

    LF · #10

    R
  2. 2

    R. Devers

    1B · #16

    L
  3. 3

    L. Arraez

    2B · #1

    L
  4. 4

    W. Adames

    SS · #2

    R
  5. 5

    J. Lee

    RF · #51

    L
  6. 6

    M. Chapman

    3B · #26

    R
  7. 7

    B. Eldridge

    DH · #8

    L
  8. 8

    D. Susac

    C · #6

    R
  9. 9

    D. Gilbert

    CF · #0

    L
COLCOL2L · 6R · 1S
  1. 1

    W. Castro

    1B · #3

    B
  2. 2

    T. Freeman

    RF · #2

    R
  3. 3

    T. Johnston

    LF · #20

    L
  4. 4

    H. Goodman

    DH · #15

    R
  5. 5

    E. Tovar

    SS · #14

    R
  6. 6

    K. Karros

    3B · #12

    R
  7. 7

    J. McCarthy

    CF · #31

    L
  8. 8

    B. Fulford

    C · #37

    R
  9. 9

    C. Stevens

    2B · #39

    R

Live · top performers so far

Top 2nd
Game flowSF ↔ COL

Recent swing: 9pp · Top 1st Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Strike 2 Foul

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

1.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 H

COLCOL
T. Freeman

T. Freeman

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Gordon

T. Gordon

RP

Starting pitcher

1.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it's going

SF lead COL 2-0 (Top 2nd).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 62% WP

Lee · singled to center, Devers scored, Adames to second.

SFBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+6pp→ 54% WP

Johnston · flied out to left.

SFTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 78% WP

Susac · doubled to right, Eldridge scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12R
SF112
COL0—0

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

COL

Home

2

Runs

0

4

Hits

1

1

Errors

0

7

TB

1

0

HR

0

1

BB

0

0

K

2

3

LOB

6

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 11·SF -117/COL -103

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

COL vs SF

0255075100I2

Period scoring

SF won 1 · COL won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Lee 1

1

Inn 2

Susac 1

SF
COL

Play-by-play · 113 plays

period
event
player
  1. T2

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·COL 0

  2. T2

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 2·COL 0

  3. T2

    Tanner Gordon pitches to Drew Gilbert

    · ·

    SF 2·COL 0

  4. T2

    ·

    SF 2·COL 0

  5. T2

    Susac doubled to right, Eldridge scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·COL 0

    −9pp

  6. T2

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·COL 0

  7. T2

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  8. T2

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  9. T2

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  10. T2

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  11. T2

    Tanner Gordon pitches to Daniel Susac

    · ·

    SF 2·COL 0

  12. T2

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  13. T2

    Eldridge doubled to center.

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

    −5pp

  14. T2

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  15. T2

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  16. T2

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  17. T2

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  18. T2

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  19. T2

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  20. T2

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  21. T2

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  22. T2

    Tanner Gordon pitches to Bryce Eldridge

    ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  23. T2

    Top of the 2nd inning

    SF 1·COL 0

  24. End 1s

    End of the 1st inning

    SF 1·COL 0

  25. B1

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  26. B1

    Tovar struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

    −6pp

  27. B1

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  28. B1

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  29. B1

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

  30. B1

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 1·COL 0

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Strike SwingingCH 84#4
  2. Strike LookingSL 87#1
  3. BallSI 91#2
  4. Strike SwingingCH 85#3
  5. Strike SwingingSL 88#4
  6. Strike SwingingCH 83#1
  7. BallCH 85#2
  8. BallFF 93#3

Player projections

COL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.2± 1.6low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.3± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    41.7%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.2%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 30, 26sim 91
    263
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 90
    266
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 86
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 85
    214
    27(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 84
    111
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 84
    131
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs