MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Rocchio grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hedges out at second. → win prob 28→36% BOS · leverage medium · next play ≈ ±6pp

TOP 5TH+1CLE

BOS

24-33

CLE

34-26

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 50-20 outs

Pitcher· CLE

T. Bibee

4.0 IP, 4 K, 1 ER

Batter· BOS

C. Wong

0-1, 1 K

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

60.9%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 62.5% CLE

BOS 1 · 2 CLE

CLE +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCLE leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCLEBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 72% WP
Hedges · singled to right, Fry scored and Hoskins scored, Manzardo to third.
Lead flipCLEBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 58% WP
Fry · doubled to left, Hoskins to third.

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.59

R. Suarez

2-3 · 3.02 ERA

T. Bibee

0-7 · 4.57 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

49.0%

open 49.6% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

84.1%

+22.7ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

±6.4

pp · next play

medium · 40/100

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.11

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.5%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.6pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

CLE

★ best

+135DraftKings

edge +22.6pp · implied 39.9%

Book	BOS	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-179	+135★	+22.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CLE vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Payton TolleBOS
6.6± 4.0low
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jarren DuranBOS
2.7± 2.8high
Willson ContrerasBOS
2.1± 1.6high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Jarren DuranBOS
1.0± 1.1high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.6± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
3.1± 3.8low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

BOS

Red Sox

24-40

vs62.5%CLE

CLE★

Guardians

39-31

BOS 37.5%win prob62.5% CLE

CLE 1535 · BOS 1478Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Duran★LF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT29.294
M. Gasper★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. Abreu★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
M. Yoshida★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
C. Wong★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Narvaez★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT257
Team	4-16	16	1	4	1	1	0	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-2

1-2

0-2

0-2

0-2

0-2

1-2

0-1

1-1

Team

4-16

	Pitching
R. Suarez★SP	4.0	4	2	2	1	7	0
Team	4.0	4	2	2	1	7	0

Pitching

Player

R. Suarez★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
T. Bazzana★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT27.662
J. Ramirez★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauter★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.941
R. Hoskins★1B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT24.96
D. Fry★RF	2-2	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
K. Manzardo★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Fairchild★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Hedges★C	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT24.43
B. Rocchio★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4-15	15	2	4	2	0	1	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI