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Live · 10
  • MLBMid 3
    MIL 0@HOU 0
    -12.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    KC 0@TEX 0
    +4.9ppmedium
  • MLBMid 5
    SD 0@WSH 1
    +30.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 5
    ATL 2@CIN 3
    +34.3pphigh
  • MLBTop 5
    BOS 1@CLE 2
    +22.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    DET 1@CHW 0
    -42.1ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    LAA 1@TB 3
    +26.4pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    MIA 1@NYM 3
    +41.7pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    TOR 5@BAL 9
    +48.0pplow
  • MLBMid 5
    MIN 0@PIT 4
    +45.4pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
MIA logo
MIA
1
LiveTop 4th
NYM logo
NYM
3
Updated 2:55 PM ET
TOP 4TH+2NYM↑
MIA

MIA

26-33

1
3
NYM

NYM

25-33

MLB · At bat

Top 4·0-0·1 out

Pitcher· NYM

N. McLean

3.1 IP, 1 K, 1 ER

Batter· MIA

E. Ruiz

0-0

LastNolan McLean pitches to Esteury Ruiz

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

61.0%

NYM wins · current

Pre-game: 50.9% MIA

MIA 1 · 3 NYM

NYM +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4
away leadsNYM leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingMIATop 4th Inning · 1-3
    +11pp→ 27% WP

    Caissie · doubled to left, Sanoja scored, Marsee to third.

  • ↑SwingNYMBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
    +13pp→ 87% WP

    Semien · homered to left center (382 feet), Vientos scored.

  • ↑SwingNYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
    +9pp→ 76% WP

    Benge · homered to center (418 feet).

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.33

J. King

1-0 · 1.93 ERA

vs

N. McLean

2-4 · 4.40 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

NYM no-vig %

59.8%

open 60.0% · -0.2

+0.5-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL64.3%55.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelTossup
● Live
MIA0

MIA★

Marlins

32-36

vs50.9%MIA

NYM

Mets

27-36

NYM3
MIA 50.9%win prob49.1% NYM
MIA 1486 · NYM 1468Box score→

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21+

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Live read

Caissie doubled to left, Sanoja scored, Marsee to third. → win prob 17→27% MIA · leverage low · next play ≈ ±4pp

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

92.6%

+41.7ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

±4.0

pp · next play

low · 19/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.1pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best
+186DraftKings

edge +18.1pp · implied 32.8%

NYM

no live price

BookMIANYMBest edge
DraftKings+186★-251+18.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 31·Top 4th/SeriesNYM lead series 2-0/VegasNYM -161
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. VientosNYM+16.2pp
  2. 2O. CaissieMIA+14.7pp
  3. 3M. SemienNYM+13.2pp

MIA · top performer

MIA
Owen Caissie

Owen Caissie

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Marcus Semien

Marcus Semien

2B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Mets · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 4th
MIA26-33
1
3
NYM25-33
MIA26-33·NYM25-33
MIA

MIA

26-33

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-22000000
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-11000010
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-11000000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-22000001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-11100010
SPRINT28.381
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-11000010
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-22000000
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
2-22021000
SPRINT28.586
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
0-00000010
Team2-1212121041
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KingJ. King★RP
1.2222021
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.1111011
Team3.0333032
NYM

NYM

25-33

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-22111100
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-22000000
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-22000001
SPRINT25.513
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
0-11000000
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-11110000
SPRINT25.513
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
0-11000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-11000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-11112100
SPRINT28.175
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-11000000
Team3-1212333203
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
3.1211410
Team3.1211410

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. King
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      33%·89.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      27%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      65%·83.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      35%·96.5 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    68 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      26%·91.6 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·82.5 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

3

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM lead series 2-0

May 29MIAMIA7@NYMNYM9
May 30MIAMIA1@NYMNYM6
May 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMtoday

Season series

MIA leads series 3-2

May 22NYMNYM1@MIAMIA2
May 23NYMNYM1@MIAMIA4
May 24NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4
May 29MIAMIA7@NYMNYM9
May 30MIAMIA1@NYMNYM6
May 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMtoday
Jul 30MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 1MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 2MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 7NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 8NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 9NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+13343%
NYMNYM-16162%

↗4· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
MIAMIARP
J. King

J. King

#47 · 1-0

ERA

1.93

K

18

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/27@TORTOR1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-
5/25@TORTOR1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-
5/24vsNYMNYM0.2 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-
VS
NYMNYMSP
N. McLean

N. McLean

#26 · 2-4

ERA

4.40

K

75

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/25vsCINCIN3.1 IP · 7 ER · 6 KL(2-4)
5/19@WSHWSH5.2 IP · 6 ER · 5 KL(2-3)
5/14vsDETDET7.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 KW(2-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
MIAMIA4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    X. Edwards

    2B · #9

    B
  2. 2

    L. Hicks

    C · #34

    L
  3. 3

    O. Lopez

    SS · #6

    R
  4. 4

    K. Stowers

    DH · #28

    L
  5. 5

    J. Sanoja

    3B · #8

    R
  6. 6

    J. Marsee

    CF · #87

    L
  7. 7

    C. Norby

    1B · #1

    R
  8. 8

    O. Caissie

    RF · #17

    L
  9. 9

    E. Ruiz

    LF · #3

    R
NYMNYM5L · 4R
  1. 1

    C. Benge

    RF · #3

    L
  2. 2

    B. Bichette

    SS · #19

    R
  3. 3

    J. Soto

    LF · #22

    L
  4. 4

    J. Young

    DH · #29

    L
  5. 5

    M. Vientos

    1B · #27

    R
  6. 6

    A.J. Ewing

    CF · #9

    L
  7. 7

    B. Baty

    3B · #7

    L
  8. 8

    M. Semien

    2B · #10

    R
  9. 9

    L. Torrens

    C · #13

    R

Live · top performers so far

Top 4th
Game flowMIA ↔ NYM

Recent swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

Just happened

Nolan McLean · pitches to Esteury Ruiz

MIAMIA
O. Caissie

O. Caissie

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

J. King

J. King

RP

Starting pitcher

1.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 2 H

NYMNYM
M. Semien

M. Semien

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 2 ER

How it's going

NYM lead MIA 3-1 (Top 4th).

Win probability

NYM vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 76% WP

Benge · homered to center (418 feet).

NYMBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+13pp→ 87% WP

Semien · homered to left center (382 feet), Vientos scored.

MIATop 4th Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 27% WP

Caissie · doubled to left, Sanoja scored, Marsee to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234R
MIA00011
NYM120—3

Period scoring

MIA won 0 · NYM won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Benge 1

0
2

Inn 2

Semien 2

0
0

Inn 3

1

Inn 4

Caissie 1

MIA
NYM

Play-by-play · 218 plays

period
event
player
  1. T4

    Nolan McLean pitches to Esteury Ruiz

    · ·

    MIA 1·NYM 3

  2. T4

    · ·

    MIA 1·NYM 3

  3. T4

    Caissie doubled to left, Sanoja scored, Marsee to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 1·NYM 3

    −11pp

  4. T4

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·NYM 3

  5. T4

    Nolan McLean pitches to Owen Caissie

    · ·

    MIA 1·NYM 3

  6. T4

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  7. T4

    Norby flied out to center, Sanoja to third.

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

    +3pp

  8. T4

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  9. T4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  10. T4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  11. T4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  12. T4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  13. T4

    Nolan McLean pitches to Connor Norby

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  14. T4

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  15. T4

    Marsee walked, Sanoja to second.

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

    −5pp

  16. T4

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  17. T4

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  18. T4

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  19. T4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  20. T4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  21. T4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  22. T4

    Nolan McLean pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  23. T4

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  24. T4

    Sanoja walked.

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

    −3pp

  25. T4

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  26. T4

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  27. T4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  28. T4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  29. T4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

  30. T4

    Nolan McLean pitches to Javier Sanoja

    ·

    MIA 0·NYM 3

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

1

Runs

3

2

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

3

TB

9

0

HR

2

4

BB

0

1

K

3

8

LOB

2

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +133/NYM -161

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.15

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+138

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.2%

Line barely moved

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. BallCU 82#5
  2. BallCH 87#6
  3. Strike LookingST 85#1
  4. Strike SwingingSI 96#2
  5. Ground OutFF 97#3
  6. BallST 86#1
  7. BallST 85#2
  8. Foul BallFC 92#3

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 99
    142
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 98
    122
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 96
    281
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    281
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    142
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs