MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

22-35

PregameSat, 9:10 PM EDT

COL

21-37

ATS/SF -1.5O/U/11ML/SF-131

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

115 total idx

Coors Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

2-8

SF -1.9 vs COL -3.2 margin

SF brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Adrian Houser

SP · #12

2-4

W-L

5.30

ERA

1.48

WHIP

52.2

Last 3 starts

vsCHW-4.2 IP3 ER5 K

@ATHW(2-4)6.0 IP1 ER3 K

@LADW(1-4)5.2 IP2 ER4 K

Home starter

Ryan Feltner

SP · #18

1-1

W-L

6.30

ERA

1.50

WHIP

20.0

Last 3 starts

vsSD-2.0 IP2 ER3 K

vsLAD-5.2 IP2 ER5 K

@SDL(1-1)4.0 IP6 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 11

Money-131 / +109

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesCOL leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take SF on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-131Bet SF ML↗-131Bet SF ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 11Bet the total↗O/U 11Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

COL vs SF.

COL is 2-8 recently; SF is 2-8.

38.6%

model · COL win prob

Recent form

COL2–8-3.2
SF2–8-1.9

Situational

COL1d restB2B
SF1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; SF has 1.

Model angle

+5.7ppon SF

SF's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+1.3pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp
▼Venue split-0.3pp

Players to watch

Casey SchmittSF
2.4total bases · ±2.2
Casey Schmitt · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 2.1.
Willy AdamesSF
2.4total bases · ±2.2
Willy Adames · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.8 vs season 1.7.
Luis ArraezSF
1.8total bases · ±2.0
Luis Arraez · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.7.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

COL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29SF @ COL6–8

Line move

open +109→+109flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
40.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.5%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like SF.

SF's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+5.7

pp edge · SF

0.00

CLV pp

2.7u · large

on SF

61.4%

±5.0pp band

2.7u large — +4.7pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+7.2pp

+1.5pp post-cal

Kelly

10.8%

2.7% sized

Decimal

1.76

+4.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.7pp · SF over COL

▲
Model confidence82% conf
SF grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Venue split64% conf
COL's venue form trims SF's edge by 6.5pp.
-0.3pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
SF has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved

Player projections

COL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts