WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

Live read

A'ja Wilson misses free throw 2 of 2 → win prob 37→44% GS

8:54 - 3RD+6LV

4-3

4741

5-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 373 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASun, May 318:54 - 3rdVegasLV -1.5

Updated 0s ago

LV · top performer

Jackie Young

G · #0

10.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Gabby Williams

F · #1

6.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box score

8:54 - 3rd

LV4-3

GS5-2

LV4-3GS5-2

4-3

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
S. Talbot★F · #7	17	6	2	3	0	0	0	+7
N. Smith★F · #3	16	8	8	1	0	0	1	+7
A. Wilson★C · #22	18	15	8	1	0	1	2	+8
C. Gray★G · #12	20	2	0	4	0	0	2	+5
J. Young★G · #0	18	10	2	4	1	0	1	+8
C. CarterG · #23	8	6	1	0	0	1	0	-3

Team		47	23	13	1	3	6
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, J. Barker

5-2

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
K. Thornton★F · #5	15	6	2	0	0	0	0	-5
G. Williams★F · #1	17	10	2	0	1	0	0	-9
C. Zandalasini★F · #24	14	8	4	1	0	0	1	-4
K. Stokes★C · #41	15	0	5	0	0	0	0	-8
V. Burton★G · #22	16	5	3	4	1	0	0	-3
J. SalaunF · #13	10	5	3	1	2	0	0	-4

Team		41	20	9	4	0	3
DNP: N. Mwenentanda, J. Jocyte

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

May 31

LV@

GStoday

Jun 6

GS@

LVupcoming

Jun 21

GS@

LVupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

LV-12556%

GS+10549%

204· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -1.5↗SpreadBet LV -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

167.5

0.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

8:54 - 3rd

Game flowLV ↔ GS

Recent swing: 6pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:47

Just happened

Golden State Valkyries Full timeout

J. Young

Leading · 8:54 - 3rd · 18 min

10 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST

On pace: 22 PTS · 4 REB · 9 AST

G. Williams

Leading · 8:54 - 3rd · 17 min

10 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST

On pace: 24 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST

How it's going

LV lead GS 47-41 (8:54 - 3rd). J. Young led with 10 PTS, 2 REB, 4 AST.

Win probability

GS vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

41 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 33

Bench(3)

6 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST

GS 7

GSstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

29 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

GS 23

Bench(5)

12 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV1st Quarter · 4:31 · 11-7

+12pp→ 62% WP

Laeticia Amihere · enters the game for Kiah Stokes

LV2nd Quarter · 8:24 · 24-23

+8pp→ 53% WP

Stephanie Talbot · makes 23-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)

GS2nd Quarter · 2:24 · 38-39

+9pp→ 51% WP

Janelle Salaun · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cecilia Zandalasini assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LV	21	22	4	47
GS	23	18	0	41

Period scoring

LV won 2 · GS won 1

Young 7

Williams 8

Wilson 9

Zandalasini 8

Smith 2

Thornton 8

Shooting comparison

47%

18-38

33%

14-42

38%

5-13

3PT

39%

9-23

75%

6-8

100%

4-4

Play-by-play · 208 plays

period

event

player

Q3·8:54
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
LV 47·GS 41
Q3·8:54
Kayla Thornton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 47·GS 41
−5pp
Q3·8:54
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup
LV 47·GS 41
−3pp
Q3·9:03
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 45·GS 41
Q3·9:05
A'ja Wilson vs. Kiah Stokes (NaLyssa Smith gains possession)
· ·
LV 45·GS 41
−3pp
Q3·9:06
A'ja Wilson misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
LV 45·GS 41
+3pp
Q3·9:23
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 45·GS 41
−1pp
Q3·9:24
Kayla Thornton misses 13-foot step back jumpshot
LV 45·GS 41
−3pp
Q3·9:47
NaLyssa Smith makes 10-foot jumper (Jackie Young assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 45·GS 41
−6pp
Q3·10:00
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Chennedy Carter
· ·
LV 43·GS 41
Q3·10:00
Cecilia Zandalasini enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
LV 43·GS 41
Q3·10:00
Kayla Thornton enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
LV 43·GS 41
−2pp
Q2·0.0
End of the 2nd Quarter
LV 43·GS 41
−3pp
Q2·0.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
LV 43·GS 41
+4pp
Q2·0.3
Veronica Burton misses 59-foot three point jumper
LV 43·GS 41
−3pp
Q2·2.3
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
LV 43·GS 41
+0.6pp
Q2·4.8
Stephanie Talbot misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 43·GS 41
+2pp
Q2·27.1
Chelsea Gray enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 43·GS 41
Q2·27.1
Tiffany Hayes out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 43·GS 41
−4pp
Q2·33.8
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
LV 43·GS 41
Q2·35.9
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 43·GS 41
+7pp
Q2·35.9
Brianna Turner enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
LV 43·GS 41
Q2·35.9
Chennedy Carter enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
· ·
LV 43·GS 41
Q2·35.9
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 43·GS 41
−0.8pp
Q2·35.9
Gabby Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 42·GS 41
−5pp
Q2·43.0
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 42·GS 41
−0.5pp
Q2·46.2
Gabby Williams misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
LV 42·GS 41
−2pp
Q2·54.3
Veronica Burton offensive rebound
LV 42·GS 41
+2pp
Q2·56.4
Janelle Salaun misses 22-foot step back jumpshot
LV 42·GS 41
−2pp
Q2·1:16
A'ja Wilson makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot (Jackie Young assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 42·GS 41
−6pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

18-38

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

FG %

5-13

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-23

6-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

4-4

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LV -1.5·O/U 167.5·LV -125/GS +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsGS leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipGS2nd Quarter · 2:24 · 38-39
+9pp→ 51% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cecilia Zandalasini assists)
SwingLV2nd Quarter · 6:03 · 27-28
+7pp→ 50% WP
Gabby Williams · misses driving layup
Lead flipLV2nd Quarter · 8:24 · 24-23
+8pp→ 53% WP
Stephanie Talbot · makes 23-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
Lead flipGS1st Quarter · 1:37 · 17-19
+7pp→ 54% WP
Kaitlyn Chen · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Janelle Salaun assists)
Lead flipLV1st Quarter · 4:31 · 11-7
+12pp→ 62% WP
Laeticia Amihere · enters the game for Kiah Stokes

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.5%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

29.8%

-22.2ppvs pre-game · LV favored

Leverage

±9.4

pp · next play

high · 68/100

One swing game

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.67

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+102

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Market faded the model hard

Player props

Player projections

GS vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
23.5± 12.0low
Chennedy CarterLV
17.4± 9.2low
Veronica BurtonGS
15.6± 5.8low

Rebounds

NaLyssa SmithLV
7.2± 4.5low
A'ja WilsonLV
6.9± 5.6low
Kaila CharlesGS
6.3± 2.4low

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.3± 2.4low
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 4.2low
Jackie YoungLV
5.2± 3.1low

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.5low
Kiah StokesGS
1.8± 2.7low
Laeticia AmihereGS
1.1± 1.5low

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.9± 2.4low
Chennedy CarterLV
1.1± 1.3low
Veronica BurtonGS
1.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

49.7%

FG%

◀

44.7

41.3%

34.9%

3PT %

32.5

▶

36.1%

91.0

PPG

◀

85.4

86.4

22.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

10.1

Data via ESPN · wehoop