LV
5-3
GS
5-3
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
28
Pts
15
Reb
4
Ast
GS · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #1
20
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
Biggest swing: 19pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:32
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 10 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 4-5 | +8 | 7 | 4 | |
| 25 | 15 | 7-9 | — | 1-2 | -2 | 9 | 1 | |
| 36 | 28 | 11-22 | 0-1 | 6-7 | +11 | 15 | 4 | |
| 36 | 5 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 3-3 | +7 | 2 | 6 | |
| 37 | 23 | 9-17 | 5-9 | — | +12 | 7 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | +4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +8 | 1 | 2 | |
| 9 | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3-4 | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 91 | 33-69 | 8-22 | 17-21 | 45 | 26 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, J. Barker | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 12 | 4-10 | 4-7 | — | -10 | 4 | 0 | |
| 26 | 20 | 6-14 | 4-6 | 4-4 | +2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 21 | 9 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | -9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 24 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 7 | 0 | |
| 28 | 7 | 3-9 | 1-3 | — | -15 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 2 | 0-5 | — | 2-2 | +3 | 4 | 2 | |
| 21 | 16 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 3-3 | -12 | 4 | 1 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -16 | 0 | 1 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | — | +5 | 1 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | +10 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 81 | 25-74 | 16-35 | 15-17 | 33 | 16 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
34
26
Ast
16
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
GS
Home
33-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-74
48
FG %
34
8-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-35
17-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-17
12
OR
9
33
DR
24
26
Assists
16
15
Turnovers
12
Season series
LV wins series 3-0
LV91@GS81todayGS79@LV84GS73@LV92Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
167.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
LV-12556%GS+10549%204· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
167.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LV beat GS 91-81. A. Wilson paced them with 28 PTS, 15 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 29-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 40 REB · 24 AST
GS 69
Bench(3)
10 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 11
GSstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST
GS 30
Bench(7)
33 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLaeticia Amihere · enters the game for Kiah Stokes
Janelle Salaun · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cecilia Zandalasini assists)
Veronica Burton · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 21 | 22 | 29 | 19 | 91 |
| GS | 23 | 18 | 13 | 27 | 81 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · GS won 2
Q1
Young 7
Williams 8
Q2
Wilson 9
Zandalasini 8
Q3
Wilson 13
Thornton 11
Q4
Smith 7
Salaun 8
Shooting comparison
48%
33-69
FG
34%
25-74
36%
8-22
3PT
46%
16-35
81%
17-21
FT
88%
15-17
Play-by-play · 419 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·16.2
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·19.5
Janelle Salaun misses 22-foot step back jumpshot
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·22.6
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·22.6
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·24.2
Janelle Salaun misses 31-foot three point jumper
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·27.6
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·27.6
Stephanie Talbot makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 91·GS 81
- Q4·27.6
Stephanie Talbot makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 90·GS 81
- Q4·27.6
Kayla Thornton personal foul
LV 89·GS 81
−0.5pp
- Q4·44.4
Juste Jocyte makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 89·GS 81
−0.7pp
- Q4·44.4
Juste Jocyte makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 89·GS 80
- Q4·44.4
Jackie Young personal foul
LV 89·GS 79
+0.9pp
- Q4·47.0
Golden State Valkyries timeout
LV 89·GS 79
- Q4·47.5
Chelsea Gray makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Kierstan Bell assists)
·
LV 89·GS 79
−0.6pp
- Q4·58.2
Aces timeout
LV 87·GS 79
- Q4·58.7
Janelle Salaun makes 26-foot running jump shot (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
LV 87·GS 79
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:02
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
LV 87·GS 76
- Q4·1:05
Stephanie Talbot misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 87·GS 76
- Q4·1:22
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 87·GS 76
- Q4·1:22
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 87·GS 75
- Q4·1:22
Stephanie Talbot shooting foul
LV 87·GS 74
- Q4·1:35
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 87·GS 74
- Q4·1:35
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 86·GS 74
- Q4·1:35
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 86·GS 74
- Q4·1:35
Kayla Thornton personal foul
LV 85·GS 74
- Q4·1:37
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda traveling turnover
LV 85·GS 74
- Q4·1:37
Jackie Young bad pass turnover (Kayla Thornton steals)
·
LV 85·GS 74
- Q4·1:51
Brianna Turner enters the game for Stephanie Talbot
·
LV 85·GS 74
Betting line
LV -1.5·O/U 167.5·LV -125/GS +105
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 91–81.
LV -1.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 167.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Four factors · this game
Who won the possession battle
Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.
LVGSeFG%
shooting
TOV%
ball control
OREB%
offensive glass
FT rate
free throws / FGA
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
NaLyssa SmithLV · FeFG%.69599+- A'ja WilsonLV · CUSG%.32399+
Kiah StokesGS · CAST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · GAST/TO3.797
Jackie YoungLV · GAST/TO3.396
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
36.6%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
48.4%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
46.7%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
45.3%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.26 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+8.1pp
best edge · LV · DraftKings
LV
★ bestedge +8.1pp · implied 53.2%
GS
no live price
| Book | LV | GS | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -125★ | +105 | +8.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
GS vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.4± 8.1high
- Jackie YoungLV17.6± 8.4high
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.0± 6.8high
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.7± 4.0high
- NaLyssa SmithLV5.7± 3.4high
- Kiah StokesGS5.0± 1.9high
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.0± 2.0high
- Jackie YoungLV6.1± 3.4high
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 2.6high
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.9± 1.9high
- A'ja WilsonLV1.7± 1.4high
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.6± 1.0high
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.7± 1.1high
- A'ja WilsonLV1.7± 1.5high
- Veronica BurtonGS1.6± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands