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Live · 10
  • MLBMid 3
    MIL 0@HOU 0
    -12.4ppmedium
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    KC 0@TEX 0
    +4.9ppmedium
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    SD 0@WSH 1
    +30.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 5
    ATL 2@CIN 3
    +34.3pphigh
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    BOS 1@CLE 2
    +22.7ppmedium
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    -42.1ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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ATL logo
ATL
2
LiveBot 5th
CIN logo
CIN
3
Updated 2:55 PM ET
Live read

Mateo homered to left center (425 feet). → win prob 27→40% ATL · leverage medium · next play ≈ ±7pp

BOT 5TH+1CIN↑
ATL

ATL

40-19

2
3
CIN

CIN

29-28

MLB · At bat

Bottom 5·0-0·0 outs

Pitcher· ATL

S. Strider

4.0 IP, 7 K, 2 ER

Batter· CIN

J. Bleday

2-2, 2 RBI

LastSpencer Strider pitches to JJ Bleday

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

51.7%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 60.5% ATL

ATL 2 · 3 CIN

CIN +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ◆ClutchATLTop 5th Inning · 2-3
    +13pp→ 40% WP

    Mateo · homered to left center (425 feet).

  • ↑SwingCINBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
    +12pp→ 77% WP

    Benson · doubled to right, Steer scored on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr..

  • ↺Lead flipCINBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
    +13pp→ 62% WP

    Bleday · doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.

  • ↺Lead flipCINBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
    +12pp→ 54% WP

    Bleday · doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.03

S. Strider

3-0 · 3.46 ERA

vs

N. Lodolo

1-1 · 5.57 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CIN no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0-0.5CIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%CIN NO-VIG %May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

83.0%

+40.0ppvs pre-game · CIN favored

Leverage

±6.7

pp · next play

medium · 42/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
ATL1

ATL★

Braves

44-20

vs60.5%ATL

CIN

Reds

36-30

CIN3
ATL 60.5%win prob39.5% CIN
ATL 1579 · CIN 1506Box score→

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.3pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best
-115DraftKings

edge +10.3pp · implied 50.2%

CIN

no live price

BookATLCINBest edge
DraftKings-115★-113+10.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved

MLB·Sun, May 31·Bot 5th/SeriesATL leads series 2-0/VegasATL -125
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1E. De La CruzCIN+34.1pp
  2. 2S. StriderATL−21.0pp
  3. 3J. BledayCIN+13.8pp

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 5th
ATL40-19
2
3
CIN29-28
ATL40-19·CIN29-28
ATL

ATL

40-19

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-22111111
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-11010010
SPRINT27.148
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-22000001
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-22000000
SPRINT27.354
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-22000000
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-22000000
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
1-22111100
SPRINT3099
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-22000001
C. TrompC. Tromp★C
0-22000001
Team3-1717232224
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
4.0632270
Team4.0632270
CIN

CIN

29-28

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
0-33000003
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-22220010
SPRINT2872
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
2-22022000
SPRINT27.457
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-11000011
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-22000002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-22000000
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-22110001
SPRINT28.483
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
1-22010000
SPRINT2872
P.J. HigginsP.J. Higgins★C
0-22000000
Team6-1818362027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. LodoloN. Lodolo★SP
5.0322242
Team5.0322242

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    78 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.0 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.3 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.6 mph·33% whiff

CIN

  • N. Lodolo
    64 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      27%·94.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      22%·82.2 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

ATL leads series 2-0

May 29ATLATL8@CINCIN3
May 30ATLATL5@CINCIN2
May 31ATLATL@CINCINtoday

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

May 29ATLATL8@CINCIN3
May 30ATLATL5@CINCIN2
May 31ATLATL@CINCINtoday
Sep 22CINCIN@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 23CINCIN@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 24CINCIN@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-12556%
CINCIN+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
ATLATLSP
S. Strider

S. Strider

#99 · 3-0

ERA

3.46

K

32

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/26@BOSBOS5.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 KW(3-0)
5/21@MIAMIA6.1 IP · 3 ER · 9 KW(2-0)
5/15vsBOSBOS5.1 IP · 1 ER · 4 K-
VS
CINCINSP
N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

#40 · 1-1

ERA

5.57

K

18

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/25@NYMNYM6.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(1-1)
5/18@PHIPHI5.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-
5/13vsWSHWSH4.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
ATLATL2L · 6R · 1S
  1. 1

    R. Acuna Jr.

    RF · #13

    R
  2. 2

    M. Harris II

    CF · #23

    L
  3. 3

    M. Olson

    1B · #28

    L
  4. 4

    O. Albies

    2B · #1

    B
  5. 5

    M. Dubon

    LF · #14

    R
  6. 6

    A. Riley

    3B · #27

    R
  7. 7

    J. Mateo

    DH · #2

    R
  8. 8

    H. Kim

    SS · #7

    R
  9. 9

    C. Tromp

    C · #39

    R
CINCIN3L · 5R · 1S
  1. 1

    B. Dunn

    CF · #59

    R
  2. 2

    E. De La Cruz

    SS · #44

    B
  3. 3

    J. Bleday

    LF · #22

    L
  4. 4

    S. Stewart

    3B · #27

    R
  5. 5

    E. Suarez

    DH · #28

    R
  6. 6

    N. Lowe

    1B · #31

    L
  7. 7

    S. Steer

    2B · #7

    R
  8. 8

    W. Benson

    RF · #30

    L
  9. 9

    P.J. Higgins

    C · #65

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th
Game flowATL ↔ CIN

Recent swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Spencer Strider · pitches to JJ Bleday

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 12 K · 4 ER

CINCIN
E. De La Cruz

E. De La Cruz

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 3 ER

How it's going

CIN lead ATL 3-2 (Bot 5th).

Win probability

CIN vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 62% WP

Bleday · doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.

CINBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 77% WP

Benson · doubled to right, Steer scored on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr..

ATLTop 5th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 40% WP

Mateo · homered to left center (425 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
ATL100012
CIN101103

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · CIN won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Bleday 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Bleday 1

0
1

Inn 4

Benson 1

1
0

Inn 5

Mateo 1

ATL
CIN

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period
event
player
  1. B5

    Spencer Strider pitches to JJ Bleday

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  2. B5

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  3. B5

    De La Cruz singled to center.

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

    +5pp

  4. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  5. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  6. B5

    Spencer Strider pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  7. B5

    Bottom of the 5th inning

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  8. M5

    Middle of the 5th inning

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  9. T5

    Acuña Jr. caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    ATL 2·CIN 3

    +3pp

  10. T5

    Acuña Jr. caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  11. T5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  12. T5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  13. T5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  14. T5

    Nick Lodolo pitches to Michael Harris II

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  15. T5

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  16. T5

    Acuña Jr. walked.

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

    −2pp

  17. T5

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  18. T5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  19. T5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  20. T5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  21. T5

    Nick Lodolo pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  22. T5

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  23. T5

    Tromp struck out looking.

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

    +2pp

  24. T5

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  25. T5

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  26. T5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  27. T5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  28. T5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  29. T5

    Nick Lodolo pitches to Chadwick Tromp

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  30. T5

    ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

2

Runs

3

3

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

9

TB

9

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

4

K

7

4

LOB

6

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATL -125/CIN +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. BallCH 89#2
  2. BallCH 88#3
  3. BallFF 94#4
  4. BallSI 93#1
  5. BallFF 95#2
  6. Strike LookingSI 94#3
  7. BallCH 85#1
  8. SingleFF 94#2

Player projections

CIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.4± 3.2high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.2± 2.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    43.0%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.5%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.3%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 30, 26sim 97
    155
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    194
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 94
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    100
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 93
    158
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 93
    192
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs