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THE ONE Analytics
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MIL logo
MIL
2
LiveEnd 4th
HOU logo
HOU
0
Updated 3:19 PM ET
Live read

Bauers homered to left (347 feet), Vaughn scored. → win prob 64→82% MIL · leverage low · next play ≈ ±3pp

END 4TH+2MIL↑
MIL

MIL

34-21

2
0
HOU

HOU

27-33

MLB · At bat

End 4·0-0·0 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastEnd of the 4th inning

Live · model leanEnd 4thPolls every 30s

65.6%

MIL wins · current

Pre-game: 60.6% MIL

MIL 2 · 0 HOU

MIL +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4
away leadsHOU leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingMILTop 4th Inning · 2-0
    +18pp→ 82% WP

    Bauers · homered to left (347 feet), Vaughn scored.

  • ↑SwingHOUTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
    +6pp→ 34% WP

    Yelich · struck out swinging.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.00

J. Misiorowski

5-2 · 1.83 ERA

vs

T. Imai

2-2 · 6.17 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

HOU no-vig %

37.0%

open 38.4% · -1.4

+2.0-0.5HOU SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL42.4%33.0%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 39.4%May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
MIL0

MIL★

Brewers

39-22

vs60.6%MIL

HOU

Astros

32-39

HOU0
MIL 60.6%win prob39.4% HOU
MIL 1578 · HOU 1497Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

4.5%

-37.4ppvs pre-game · MIL favored

Leverage

±3.3

pp · next play

low · 12/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.4pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

MIL

no live price

HOU

★ best
+159DraftKings

edge +2.4pp · implied 37.0%

BookMILHOUBest edge
DraftKings-193+159★+2.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.36

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Market faded the model

MLB·Sun, May 31·End 4th/Seriestied 1-1/VegasMIL -193
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. VaughnMIL+17.3pp
  2. 2J. BauersMIL+15.9pp
  3. 3T. ImaiHOU−11.6pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena

SS

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

End 4th
MIL34-21
2
0
HOU27-33
MIL34-21·HOU27-33
MIL

MIL

34-21

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-22000001
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-22000000
SPRINT29.798
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-22000000
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-22110000
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-22112101
SPRINT2744
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-22000001
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-22000000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-11010000
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-00000010
Team3-1515232113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
4.0300040
Team4.0300040
HOU

HOU

27-33

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-22010001
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-11000001
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-22000000
SPRINT25.920
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-22000002
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-22010000
SPRINT25.18
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22000000
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.867
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-11000000
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-11000000
Team3-1515030004
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. ImaiT. Imai★SP
4.0322131
Team4.0322131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    54 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      74%·100.9 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      19%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      7%·89.3 mph·50% whiff

HOU

  • T. Imai
    70 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      47%·86.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      46%·94.3 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      1%·85.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

3

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 30MILMIL5@HOUHOU4
May 30MILMIL2@HOUHOU9
May 31MILMIL@HOUHOUtoday

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 30MILMIL5@HOUHOU4
May 30MILMIL2@HOUHOU9
May 31MILMIL@HOUHOUtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

MILMIL-19366%
HOUHOU+15939%

↗9· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
MILMILSP
J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

#32 · 5-2

ERA

1.83

K

100

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/25vsSTLSTL7.0 IP · 1 ER · 12 KW(5-2)
5/19@CHCCHC6.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(4-2)
5/13vsSDSD7.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K-
VS
HOUHOUSP
T. Imai

T. Imai

#45 · 2-2

ERA

6.17

K

23

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/25@TEXTEX6.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 KW(2-2)
5/18@MINMIN4.2 IP · 3 ER · 5 KL(1-2)
5/13vsSEASEA4.0 IP · 6 ER · 3 KL(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
MILMIL6L · 3R
  1. 1

    C. Yelich

    DH · #22

    L
  2. 2

    G. Mitchell

    CF · #5

    L
  3. 3

    B. Turang

    2B · #2

    L
  4. 4

    A. Vaughn

    1B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    J. Bauers

    LF · #9

    L
  6. 6

    G. Sanchez

    C · #99

    R
  7. 7

    S. Frelick

    RF · #10

    L
  8. 8

    D. Hamilton

    3B · #6

    L
  9. 9

    J. Ortiz

    SS · #3

    R
HOUHOU2L · 7R
  1. 1

    J. Pena

    SS · #3

    R
  2. 2

    Y. Alvarez

    DH · #44

    L
  3. 3

    C. Walker

    1B · #8

    R
  4. 4

    T. Trammell

    LF · #26

    L
  5. 5

    I. Paredes

    3B · #15

    R
  6. 6

    C. Smith

    RF · #11

    R
  7. 7

    J. Meyers

    CF · #6

    R
  8. 8

    N. Allen

    2B · #20

    R
  9. 9

    C. Vazquez

    C · #2

    R

Live · top performers so far

End 4th
Game flowMIL ↔ HOU

Recent swing: 18pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

End of the 4th inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 0 ER

HOUHOU
J. Pena

J. Pena

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

T. Imai

T. Imai

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 4 ER

How it's going

MIL lead HOU 2-0 (End 4th). Bauers's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 34% WP

Yelich · struck out swinging.

MILTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 82% WP

Bauers · homered to left (347 feet), Vaughn scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234R
MIL00022
HOU00000

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

2

Runs

0

3

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

6

TB

4

1

HR

0

1

BB

0

3

K

4

4

LOB

7

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIL -193/HOU +159

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Win probability

HOU vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · HOU won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Bauers 2

MIL
HOU

Play-by-play · 238 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 4t

    End of the 4th inning

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  2. B4

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  3. B4

    Meyers flied out to right.

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

    −3pp

  4. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  5. B4

    Jacob Misiorowski pitches to Jake Meyers

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  6. B4

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  7. B4

    Smith grounded out to shortstop, Paredes to third.

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

    −3pp

  8. B4

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  9. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  10. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  11. B4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  12. B4

    Jacob Misiorowski pitches to Cam Smith

    · ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  13. B4

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  14. B4

    Paredes doubled to left.

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

    +4pp

  15. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  16. B4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  17. B4

    Jacob Misiorowski pitches to Isaac Paredes

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  18. B4

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  19. B4

    Trammell struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

    −2pp

  20. B4

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  21. B4

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  22. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  23. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  24. B4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  25. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  26. B4

    Jacob Misiorowski pitches to Taylor Trammell

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  27. B4

    Bottom of the 4th inning

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  28. M4

    Middle of the 4th inning

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  29. T4

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

  30. T4

    Frelick grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 2·HOU 0

    +0.9pp

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Strike SwingingFF 101#6
  2. Strike LookingSL 96#1
  3. DoubleSL 91#2
  4. Strike LookingSL 97#1
  5. BallFF 100#2
  6. BallFF 99#3
  7. Ground OutSL 97#4
  8. Fly OutSL 94#1

Player projections

HOU vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.4± 2.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.4± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.1± 3.0high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    41.9%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    37.4%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.1%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 9, 26sim 91
    300
    2(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 91
    193
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 91
    85
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 90
    155
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 90
    82
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 90
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs