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Live · 6
  • MLBBot 2
    ARI 0@SEA 1
    +29.0ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 2
    PHI 0@LAD 1
    +9.6ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    SF 4@COL 1
    -40.0pplow
  • MLBTop 3
    NYY 0@ATH 3
    +51.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    KC 1@TEX 6
    +40.3pplow
  • WNBA7:43 - 3rd
    LV 48@GS 41
    -26.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYM
NYM

NYM

13-22

4
2
COL

COL

14-22

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
15,564 attended

Line movement

83 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.0TOTAL48.9%38.8%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 40.2%May 3, 10 PMMay 31, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 4 · COL 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000040004
COL0000002002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 69-43
62%Last 30 · 330-204
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, May 4·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -149

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 4–2.

NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 10.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1L. TorrensNYM+19.7pp
  2. 2T. FreemanCOL−15.5pp
  3. 3H. GoodmanCOL−12.9pp

NYM · top performer

NYM
Carson Benge

Carson Benge

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM13-22
4
2
COL14-22
NYM13-22·COL14-22
NYM

NYM

13-22

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Batting
Player
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33100011
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44000001
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-33000002
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44012000
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000001
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-22111110
SPRINT28.586
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33110001
SPRINT25.716
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-33111001
SPRINT26.428
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-11000000
Team4-3030444128
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Pitching
Player
H. BrazobanH. Brazoban★RP
1.0000000
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
2.0100030
D. PetersonD. PetersonSP
4.0322060
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0100010
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000010
Team9.05220110
COL

COL

14-22

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Batting
Player
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT2872
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-33000002
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-44000000
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-44000001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.969
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
1-33111001
SPRINT28.175
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-33011002
SPRINT27.251
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-33000001
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-22000001
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-11000001
E. JulienE. Julien2B
0-11000000
Team5-32322520011
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Pitching
Player
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
5.1344211
J. HillJ. HillRP
0.2100020
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
2.0000050
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.0000000
Team9.0444281

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    69 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.9 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      26%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.7 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.9 mph·40% whiff
  • A. Warren
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      33%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      80%·91.8 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Williams
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      38%·83.1 mph·67% whiff

COL

  • T. Sugano
    61 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      21%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.6 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      43%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      30%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·93.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hill
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      45%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      60%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·84.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

May 4NYMNYM4@COLCOL2today
May 6NYMNYM0@COLCOL0
May 7NYMNYM10@COLCOL5
May 7NYMNYM2@COLCOL6

Season series

COL leads series 3-1

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0
May 4NYMNYM4@COLCOL2today
May 6NYMNYM0@COLCOL0
May 7NYMNYM10@COLCOL5
May 7NYMNYM2@COLCOL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-14960%
COLCOL+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 6th Inning

NYMNYM
C. Benge

C. Benge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 3 H

COLCOL
M. Moniak

M. Moniak

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat COL 4-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+17pp→ 67% WP

Benge · homered to right center (436 feet).

NYMTop 6th Inning · 4-0
+13pp→ 92% WP

Vientos · singled to center, Torrens scored and Soto scored.

COLBottom 8th Inning · 4-2
+10pp→ 23% WP

Moniak · tripled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000040004
COL0000002002

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

COL

Home

4

Runs

2

4

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

9

TB

10

1

HR

0

2

BB

0

8

K

11

6

LOB

6

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 10.5·NYM -149/COL +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

COL vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · COL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

4
0

Inn 6

Vientos 2

0
2

Inn 7

Beck 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
COL

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·COL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  3. B9

    Johnston struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  8. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Troy Johnston

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  9. B9

    Johnston hit for Beck

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  10. B9

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  11. B9

    Castro flied out to center.

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  14. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  15. B9

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  16. B9

    Goodman flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

    −6pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  19. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Hunter Goodman

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  20. B9

    Williams relieved Kimbrel

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·COL 2

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·COL 2

  23. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  24. T9

    Baty grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

    +0.7pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·COL 2

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

COL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.4± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.5± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    45.9%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.5%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 984 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 7, 26sim 95
    212
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 90
    213
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 89
    210
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 88
    43
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 88
    214
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 88
    215
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs