MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

García Jr. homered to center (402 feet). → win prob 61→73% WSH · leverage medium · next play ≈ ±7pp

TOP 5TH+1WSH

32-25

WSH

30-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 51-02 outs

Pitcher· WSH

Z. Littell

4.2 IP, 4 K, 0 ER

Batter· SD

S. Song

0-1

LastPitch 1 : Ball 1

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

51.9%

WSH wins · current

Pre-game: 60.1% SD

SD 0 · 1 WSH

WSH +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsWSH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingWSHBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 73% WP
Garc · ía Jr. homered to center (402 feet).
SwingSDBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 44% WP
Vivas · struck out swinging.
SwingSDBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 42% WP
Garc · ía Jr. grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Wood out at second.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 12.77

G. Canning

0-3 · 7.54 ERA

Z. Littell

4-4 · 5.23 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
49.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.6%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

79.8%

+30.5ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

±7.3

pp · next play

medium · 48/100

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.79

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.7pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

-121DraftKings

edge +8.7pp · implied 51.4%

WSH

no live price

Book	SD	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-121★	-107	+8.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

WSH vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 4.3low
Michael KingSD
5.4± 2.7low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 3.4low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 0.9high
Keibert RuizWSH
1.3± 0.8high
James WoodWSH
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Keibert RuizWSH
2.4± 2.0high
Curtis MeadWSH
2.1± 2.6high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Keibert RuizWSH
1.0± 1.6high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 2.9low
Zack LittellWSH
2.8± 3.4low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

SD★

Padres

33-27

vs60.1%SD

WSH

Nationals

33-32

SD 60.1%win prob39.9% WSH

SD 1518 · WSH 1489Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.483
G. Sheets★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.735
M. Machado★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. Bogaerts★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
J. Merrill★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.688
T. France★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Castellanos★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
S. Song★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Fermin★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	3-16	16	0	3	0	0	0	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-2

0-2

1-2

1-2

0-2

1-2

0-1

0-1

Team

3-16

	Pitching
G. Canning★SP	4.0	4	1	1	2	3	1
Team	4.0	4	1	1	2	3	1

Pitching

Player

G. Canning★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
J. Wood★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.★1B	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.735
C. Mead★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Abrams★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.483
D. Lile★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Young★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Tena★DH	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.662
J. Vivas★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Ruiz★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.411
Team	4-14	14	1	4	1	1	2	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI