MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Mesa Jr. singled to center, Aranda scored, Caminero to second, Palacios to third. → win prob 75→83% TB · leverage low · next play ≈ ±3pp

MID 4TH+2TB

LAA

23-36

35-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Mid 40-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 4th inning

Live · model leanMid 4thPolls every 30s

70.8%

TB wins · current

Pre-game: 73.6% TB

LAA 1 · 3 TB

TB +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsTB leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTBBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 83% WP
Mesa Jr. · singled to center, Aranda scored, Caminero to second, Palacios to third.
SwingLAATop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+7pp→ 35% WP
Madrigal · flied out to center.
SwingTBBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 76% WP
Aranda · homered to right (409 feet).

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.51

J. Kochanowicz

2-3 · 4.99 ERA

S. McClanahan

5-2 · 2.52 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.1% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.0%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.5%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
73.5%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
71.1%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

95.7%

+25.2ppvs pre-game · TB favored

Leverage

±3.2

pp · next play

low · 11/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.56

CLV pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.6pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAA

★ best

+279DraftKings

edge +1.6pp · implied 24.8%

no live price

Book	LAA	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+279★	-403	+1.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TB vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.9± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.2± 2.5low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.4± 1.2high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high
Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.9± 2.8high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.1± 1.9high
Junior CamineroTB
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.0± 2.2low
Yandy DiazTB
0.9± 1.4high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Reid DetmersLAA
3.1± 2.8low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

LAA

Angels

25-40

vs73.6%TB

TB★

Rays

45-20

LAA 26.4%win prob73.6% TB

TB 1561 · LAA 1433Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
Z. Neto★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
M. Trout★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Grissom★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
J. Soler★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Adell★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.867
O. Peraza★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Siri★LF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. O'Hoppe★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
N. Madrigal★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4-16	16	1	4	0	0	0	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-2

1-2

0-2

1-2

0-2

1-2

1-1

0-1

Team

4-16

	Pitching
J. Kochanowicz★SP	2.1	5	3	3	4	1	1
M. FarrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	3.0	5	3	3	4	2	1

Pitching

Player

J. Kochanowicz★SP

2.1

M. FarrisRP

0.2

Team

3.0

	Batting
Y. Diaz★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda★1B	1-1	1	2	1	1	1	1	0
SPRINT25.29
R. Palacios★2B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.838
J. Caminero★3B	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
C. Simpson★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.★CF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Mullins★CF	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.662
H. Feduccia★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Walls★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	5-14	14	3	5	3	1	4	2

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI