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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAA
ATH

ATH

23-24

1
2
LAA

LAA

17-31

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
25,776 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

45.9%

open 45.8% · +0.1

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL49.9%41.8%LAA NO-VIG %May 17, 5 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

ATH 1 · LAA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000000011
LAA0000000022

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

52%Last 7 · 46-42
61%Last 30 · 309-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.5pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

ATH

★ best
-106DraftKings

edge +12.5pp · implied 48.3%

LAA

no live price

BookATHLAABest edge
DraftKings-106★-123+12.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-1/VegasATH -129

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Athletics, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (ATH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Lawrence Butler

Lawrence Butler

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH23-24
1
2
LAA17-31
ATH23-24·LAA17-31
ATH

ATH

23-24

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-22010030
SPRINT25.716
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010010
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-55010002
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000001
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000001
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
1-44010001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010000
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.891
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-33000000
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
1-11011000
SPRINT26.530
Team7-3434171046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
8.02221101
Team8.02221101
LAA

LAA

17-31

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-33112101
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33000000
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000002
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-33000003
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-22000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000001
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33000001
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.225
Team2-26262221110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. UrenaW. Urena★SP
6.0400240
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
2.0100020
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.1211200
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.2000000
Team9.0711460

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

2

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 3-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2today
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2today
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2
Jun 19LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 20LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 27ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 23LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 24LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH-12956%
LAALAA+10748%

↘1· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 64pp · Bottom 9th Inning

ATHATH
L. Butler

L. Butler

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

8.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

W. Urena

W. Urena

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAA beat ATH 2-1. Neto's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (64pp).

Win probability

LAA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 7th Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 54% WP

Langeliers · fouled out to catcher.

ATHTop 9th Inning · 1-0
+34pp→ 84% WP

Butler · singled to center, Gelof scored.

LAABottom 9th Inning · 1-2
+64pp→ 100% WP

Neto · homered to center (413 feet), Siri scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000000011
LAA0000000022

Period scoring

ATH won 0 · LAA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
2

Inn 9

Butler 1

Neto 2

ATH
LAA

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 2

  2. B9

    Neto homered to center (413 feet), Siri scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 2

    +64pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  6. B9

    J.T. Ginn pitches to Zach Neto

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 2

  7. B9

    Siri ran for Frazier

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  8. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  9. B9

    Frazier singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

    +16pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  13. B9

    J.T. Ginn pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  14. B9

    Butler in right field.

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  15. B9

    Williams at shortstop.

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  16. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  17. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  18. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  19. T9

    Kurtz grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Langeliers out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

    +10pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  24. T9

    Chase Silseth pitches to Nick Kurtz

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  25. T9

    Silseth relieved Zeferjahn

    ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  26. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  27. T9

    Langeliers walked, Cortes to second, Butler to third.

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

    −4pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·LAA 0

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

1

Runs

2

7

Hits

2

0

Errors

1

8

TB

5

0

HR

1

4

BB

1

6

K

10

16

LOB

3

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 9·ATH -129/LAA +107

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Carlos CortesATH
    1.0± 0.7high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    43.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.5%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 95
    131
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 95
    113
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    116
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 90
    123
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 89
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586